Musk’s Iran diplomacy: Maximum pressure or détente?

Before Donald Trump’s rise to the White House, Elon Musk’s interactions with Iran—and the leaked news that Tehran had provided written assurances to Washington—suggested Trump might pursue a more balanced policy toward Iran. However, the appointment of hawkish figures to senior positions raises questions about the extent to which this balance is feasible.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and owner of X, is reportedly set to join Donald Trump’s cabinet. According to sources, he recently met with Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Emir Said Iravani, to discuss ways to reduce U.S.-Iran tensions. During this time, reports leaked indicating that “Iran provided written assurances to the Biden administration last month that it would not attempt to assassinate Trump.”

According to The New York Times (NYT), citing two Iranian officials, Musk met with Iran’s UN envoy Iravani for more than an hour. The meeting allegedly focused on strategies for reducing tensions. The officials described the meeting with Musk as a temporary approach for Iran, emphasizing that Iran chose not to communicate directly with American officials.

Shortly after this meeting became public, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that on October 14, Iran gave written assurances to the Biden administration that it would refrain from targeting Trump. U.S. officials had previously claimed that Iranian agents were involved in assassination plans against Trump, leading to increased security measures during Trump’s campaign.

These written assurances reportedly reached Washington at a critical moment before the U.S. presidential election. However, it remains unclear whether Trump himself received this information. The WSJ noted that in the final days of his campaign, Trump made conciliatory remarks about Iran, stating that while Iran should not develop nuclear weapons, he was not aiming for regime change or conflict with Tehran.

Amid these developments, Tehran has also shown a desire to avoid conflict with a potential new Trump administration. However, some of the individuals Trump has appointed or announced for his next term suggest a toughened “maximum pressure” policy akin to his first term.

Shelving the assassination issue may pave the way for diplomatic engagement between Tehran and a potential new Trump administration, though reaching agreement on other critical issues—especially the nuclear issue—is expected to remain challenging.

Tensions between Iran and the U.S. surged during Trump’s first term, with Trump formally withdrawing in 2018 from the 2015 nuclear deal reached under the Obama administration. Relations, which had deteriorated during Trump’s first term, began to improve under Biden, despite ongoing Israel-Iran confrontations. Notably, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian has pledged to enhance Iran’s economy and work toward lifting sanctions and has taken steps toward cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Some analysts suggest that Trump’s potential return to the presidency may reverse these gains. While Trump’s recent statements do not explicitly indicate a renewed maximum pressure policy, the appointments he has made imply a desire to revive a hardline approach.