After all, less than a week before the American elections, the efforts of the Democratic and Republican campaigns have been more focused on the key states or the main battlegrounds. American strategists believe that the competition in the 2024 elections will be historic and very tight. In the highly competitive atmosphere of the US elections, the issue of the Muslim vote in the United States has become important and its influence on the fate of the outcome of this process has become unprecedentedly more prominent for both candidates.
According to the latest US census that was conducted in 2018, the American Muslim population is reported to be more than four million and 953 thousand people.
This population is mostly settled in the states of the east and west coasts of America. California, New York, Virginia, Michigan, Maryland, Illinois, Georgia and Pennsylvania are among the states that have the largest Muslim population.
Although Muslims make up only about one percent of the US population, they are an important voting block due to their concentration in key states such as Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, where they often win elections by narrow margins.
Muslim support was crucial to Biden’s victory in 2020
And in the 2020 election, Biden was able to win the election from Trump by getting 65pc of the Muslim votes in these states. Muslim support was crucial to Biden’s victory, as he won key states by narrow margins.
In the previous election, Joe Biden was able to win the state of Georgia by only 12,000 votes, a state where more than 61,000 Muslim voters live. Biden also won the 2020 Pennsylvania election with a difference of 81 thousand votes. The number of Muslim voters in this state reaches 125 thousand people.
On the other hand, according to the findings of the Pew Research Center, 62pc of the Muslim population has a traditional party preference for the Democrats, 17pc have a party affiliation with the Republicans, and the rest 21pc are independent. But apparently in this period the equations have changed and the figures have been messed up.
Why has Muslim support for Democrats diminished?
The Institute for the Study of Social Policy and Convergence, which is located in the state of Michigan, in its latest report stated that in this election, the Muslim community seems more united than ever on a political issue; And that is the US government’s stance on the Gaza war.
According to this institute, any candidate who hopes to win the support of large sections of Muslim voters must respond to the demands of Muslim voters to end the war in Gaza.
The broad political and military support of the Biden administration to Israel in the Gaza war has caused some Muslim communities to distance themselves from the Democrats.
But the war in Gaza is not the only issue for Muslim voters, the fight against Islamophobia, the policy of supporting traditional families and health insurance programs are among the things that Muslim Americans will consider in their choice.
Who is leading in the polls among Muslim voters?
The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) in a survey of 40,000 Muslim voters in six key states found that despite the dissatisfaction of the American Muslim community with the Democrats, among its voters, Harris leads Trump with 29.4 percent of votes while Trump stands on 11.2 percent.
What is important in this survey is the amount of Muslim support for Jill Stein, the candidate of the Green Party, at 29.1 percent. Most Muslim voters have called this support a form of protest against the Democrats’ policy towards the Gaza war.
Arab-American showed support to Trump
Amir Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, who is from Yemen, supported Donald Trump as the first Arab American and the first Muslim to manage the city, describing him as a “man of peace”.
This big turn in the position of Muslims and Trump shows significant changes. By getting the support of Amir Ghalib, Trump is trying to connect with the Muslim and Arab American community in this state and it seems that he intends to attract a significant number of Muslim voters in other states with this support.
Trump’s presence with a number of Muslim leaders in the state of Michigan was an unusual scene and indicates a change in his policies and the views of Muslims in this year’s presidential election compared to the previous one.
Anti-Muslim immigration law still on the table
One of the most important concerns among American Muslims is that with Trump’s victory, the “law prohibiting Muslim immigration” may be reinstated.
This is the reason Kamala Harris seeks to turn Muslims away from Trump. Former US President Barack Obama asked Muslims not to vote for Trump during Harris’ campaign in Pennsylvania.
During the campaign, Obama reminded Muslims that Trump had strict policies against them in the past and said “If you are an American Muslim and you are upset about what is happening in the Middle East, why would you vote for someone who approved the Muslim ban. Does it mean that you are not part of our American society?”.
The result of the US presidential election is not yet clear, but one thing is clear: The role of Muslims in this election can be decisive.
For years, Muslims in America have focused on improving and building institutional capacity to change the way Muslims engage in politics. It seems that significant progress has been made in this direction and the Muslim community is gradually trying to have more influence in the political arena.
