NATO trust in US collapses as allies question viability of Article 5

Residents of NATO member countries no longer view the US as a reliable defensive shield. Washington’s allies have effectively ceased to characterize the US as a dependable partner upon whom they can rely, particularly in matters of defense.

Furthermore, within a single year of Donald Trump’s return to power, he appears to have alienated the entirety of the major developed world and leading emerging nations, which have begun to assess the US as a threat.

This reality was crystallized by polling results released ahead of the Munich Security Conference, which is set to commence on Friday.

Research conducted in early February at the request of Politico revealed that in Germany, Canada, France, and the UK, the proportion of citizens defining the US as an “unreliable ally” is significantly higher than those who consider it “reliable.”

In Germany, 50% of respondents shared this view, while in Canada, the figure stood at 57%. In France, the percentage of those deeming the US unreliable (44%) was more than double the number of those expressing the opposite view (20%).

Even in the UK, which relies on its “special relationship” with the US, those finding Washington unreliable stood at 39%, while those trusting it remained at just 30%.

NATO members lose faith in US military assistance

NATO allies are coalescing around the view that expecting military aid from the US is no longer viable. The proportion of citizens believing their countries would be protected from an enemy attack due to their relationship with the US fell by 22 points to 28% in France, by 16 points to 29% in Germany, and by 10 points to 43% in the UK within a single year.

Conversely, the percentage of those believing that adversaries would not be deterred by the US rose by 10 to 15 points, reaching levels of 31%, 32%, and 25%, respectively.

Seb Reid of the London-based agency Public First, which conducted the poll, noted in his analysis of the results that last year, Europeans viewed the US as an important ally that, while unpredictable, still deterred adversaries.

Reid provided the following assessment regarding the current landscape:

“However, European public opinion now not only ceases to view the transatlantic deterrence provided by the NATO alliance as a guarantee, but it also struggles to believe in the very existence of that deterrence. For leaders heading to the Munich Conference, the fundamental question is now this: How can the security provided by this alliance be reconstructed without US participation?”

Simulation of Russian intervention in Lithuania reinforces anxieties

This sentiment was also reflected in a recent simulation of a Russian military intervention in Lithuania, conducted by military officials and experts in Germany.

Participants in the exercise concluded that if Moscow were to present its operation as a “humanitarian mission,” the US President might avoid invoking Article 5 of the NATO charter regarding collective defense.

A separate poll prepared for the Munich Security Conference, covering the G7 (excluding Russia) and BRICS nations, revealed that the US is now viewed as a serious threat.

According to data cited by the Financial Times, the sharpest increase in this attitude occurred in Canada. This rate, which was 19% in November 2024, surged to 44% by November 2025, when the survey was conducted.

Trump’s repeated statements regarding his desire to make Canada the 51st state of the US were instrumental in shaping this perception.

Based on current data, 50% of Canadians view the US as a threat, a ratio that has reached the same level as the perception of China.

G7 and BRICS nations designate US as a threat

Other BRICS nations are following Canada’s lead; South Africa (40%), Brazil (34%), and India (29%) now characterize the US as a threat.

In Germany, this rate rose from 23% a year ago to 29%, matching India. Similar increases were observed across all G7 nations.

All these developments were recorded before Trump ordered the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and launched an offensive involving threats to use force to secure control over the Danish territory of Greenland, or to impose tariffs on European countries attempting to intervene.

Following these moves by Trump, attitudes toward the US deteriorated further. According to a YouGov poll, 84% of Danes expressed a negative view of the US in January; this figure was 70% in November, and averaged 36% during Joe Biden’s presidency.

The proportion of those who still view America as a friend or allied nation has fallen below half among respondents in Spain (39%), Germany (41%), and the UK (46%).