Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has poured cold water on the likelihood of ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza, arguing that the current conditions do not meet Israel’s demands and that an agreement can only be reached on terms achievable through continued conflict.
Optimistic reports of imminent ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza quickly faded.
Meanwhile, three senior U.S. officials have arrived in the region: Amos Hochstein, senior adviser to President Joe Biden on Lebanon; Brett McGurk, the Middle East adviser (in Israel); and CIA Director William Burns (in Egypt).
Netanyahu’s position on ceasefire conditions
Netanyahu has reiterated that any agreement with Lebanon must ensure Israel’s freedom of action in the region. In a meeting with Hochstein and McGurk, he stated, “What matters is not the various articles of the agreement or numbers like 1701 or 1556, but Israel’s ability and determination to implement the agreement in a way that allows our people to return home safely and eliminates threats from Lebanon.”
Lebanon’s interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati recently expressed hopes for a ceasefire with Israel, following reports in Israeli media of a draft agreement for a 60-day truce with Hezbollah. This draft, reportedly leaked from Washington, stated that Israel would withdraw its forces from Lebanon within the first week of the ceasefire.
However, White House National Security spokesman Sean Savett tempered expectations, saying, “Many reports and drafts circulating do not reflect the current stage of the negotiations.”
Israeli military’s perspective on the conflict
A senior Israeli general staff official criticized Netanyahu’s stance, telling the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, “It is difficult to know what he is waiting for or what he truly wants. Netanyahu’s approach gives the impression that he wants to buy time, but time is not always on our side and could lead to an uncertain war of attrition.”
The official noted that ending the conflict would require more than occupying villages in southern Lebanon, stating, “Even if the Israeli army does not launch a ground operation to dismantle Hezbollah forces and enable the return of residents to northern towns, it must still escalate its operations to compel Hezbollah and the Lebanese government to negotiate in Israel’s favor if a permanent agreement remains out of reach.”
Military analyst Yossi Yehoshua from Yediot Aharonot warned that if the conflict drags on, Israeli forces may have to deepen their operations beyond the initial plan, potentially establishing a security belt in the north to protect against prolonged hostilities.
After a month of ground fighting, five Israeli divisions and a reserve brigade have struggled to make significant progress in southern Lebanon, with more than 50,000 troops deployed but failing to capture a single village.
In U.S.-brokered negotiations, Israel has demanded that the Lebanese army and UNIFIL monitor any ceasefire and that the Lebanese army dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in the south. However, the Israeli government is doubtful Lebanon will accept these terms, reducing optimism for Hochstein’s success in this round of talks.
