Netherlands reviews national security risks from potential US sanctions

The Dutch government has begun examining the potential national security impact of US sanctions amid growing friction between allies.

A thematic report prepared by the National Security Analysts Network (ANV) at the request of the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) evaluates a scenario in which the Washington administration imposes restrictions on its allies.

The authors of the report link this possibility to escalating friction between the US and its European allies, as well as the use of economic ties as an instrument of political leverage.

Analysts argue that Washington could resort to restrictive measures against allies by prioritising its own interests.

The document assesses the potential consequences of sanctions across the Dutch economy, defence, energy, and digital infrastructure. It states that restrictions could particularly affect financial transactions, liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, military equipment procurement, pharmaceuticals and other essential consumer goods, as well as access to the services of American technology companies.

According to the report, Dutch reliance on American technologies, the US military presence in Europe, and energy imports leaves the country vulnerable to external pressure. Analysts stress that if other states join potential restrictions, the outlook could deteriorate significantly, particularly through disruptions in the supply of critical goods and services.

Proposal for a common EU line and independent capacity

Among the prospective measures, the report suggests developing domestic capacity in energy, digital technologies, and defence.

It also notes that coordination within the EU must be strengthened to prevent individual member states from being isolated.

The experts note that this assessment does not constitute a definitive forecast of sanctions, but serves merely as an evaluation of a hypothetical scenario.

Donald Trump uses trade tariffs and economic restrictions as instruments of political leverage against other countries. Having introduced “reciprocal” tariffs with a baseline rate of 10% against more than 180 countries in April 2025, Trump imposed far higher tariffs on certain nations, with these rates shifting repeatedly during negotiations and trade agreement talks.

Within this framework, separate trade crises emerged with China, Canada, and Mexico. Citing the fight against illegal migration and drug trafficking, the US introduced additional tariffs on goods from these three countries in early 2025, prompting Canada to respond with retaliatory tariffs.

In the dispute with China, duties escalated to as high as 145%, to which Beijing responded with a 125% tariff. Although the parties agreed to lower tariffs temporarily in May, tensions flared up again in the autumn due to export restrictions imposed by Beijing on rare earth elements.

In January 2026, Trump threatened eight European countries, including the Netherlands, with additional tariffs if they did not accept the “complete and final purchase” of Greenland by the US.

Against these tariffs, initially announced at 10% and projected to increase to 25% in June, the EU began discussing retaliatory steps, including duties on American goods and restrictions on US companies, according to reporting by Spiegel. The European Parliament also halted the ratification process for the trade agreement with Washington.

Sanctions targeting international institutions have served as another instrument of leverage. Trump signed an executive order in February 2025 imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC). The US administration subsequently announced new restrictions against the court, which is located in The Hague. The Dutch government announced that it continues to support the Hague-based ICC.