Oil prices hit new highs amid US-Iran tensions

Oil prices climbed to their highest levels since President Donald Trump took office on Sunday evening, as energy markets braced for a potential US military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and Tehran’s subsequent retaliation.

US crude oil futures surged over 6% to $78 per barrel, more than $1 above the price on January 20, when Trump was inaugurated. This increase is expected to impact gasoline prices just as American drivers prepare to hit the road for the upcoming Fourth of July holiday.

Trump campaigned on a promise to lower consumer energy prices as part of his “energy dominance” agenda. However, the average pump price for regular gasoline is now approximately $3.22 per gallon, about 10 cents higher than when he took office, and it is likely to rise further this week.

The extent of future oil price increases will depend on Tehran’s reaction to any attacks. The Iranian parliament has already voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil passes. The decision now awaits the approval of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Even if approved, the impact on the oil market will hinge on whether Iran and its allies merely harass oil tankers passing through the strait or launch a full-scale operation to block traffic entirely.

Reports that the White House gave Iran advance notice of the bombings and assured them there would be no further attacks suggest the Trump administration is trying to avoid a full-scale war, which could help keep oil prices in check.

Energy analysts have warned that a disruption to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $100 per barrel.

Scott Modell, CEO of the energy and geopolitical analysis firm Rapidan Energy Group, commented, “This choreography suggests that both sides want to contain this crisis, not lose control of it. We think Iran’s response will be staged: harassment of commercial vessels, symbolic seizures of tankers, and limited rocket attacks on US military outposts. But we do not foresee a full-scale campaign to completely cut off energy flows in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Some market analysts believe that even if the conflict escalates, the US, OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia, and other suppliers have enough product to meet demand.

However, others caution that the price surge may have just begun. In a note, BCA Research analyst Roukaya Ibrahim stated, “It is true that these oil market dynamics show investors are adding a higher risk premium, factoring in the increased likelihood of an oil supply shock. But the more important question is whether this pricing adequately reflects the level of risk. Our impression is that the pressure on crude oil prices will remain upward in the near term.”