Pentagon faces strategic dilemma over interceptor costs in Iran operations, WSJ reports

The US administration is engaged in strategic planning to conclude operations against Iran before its munition stockpiles reach critical levels.

President Donald Trump has indicated that such an operation could last a week or longer, while defense sources highlight that the rapid expenditure of air defense interceptors is directly influencing the decision-making process.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, while evaluating the risks of a large-scale and sustained operation against Iran, identified the sustainability of munition stockpiles as a top priority. This warning is currently being tested in practice.

Defense officials state that Washington must calculate the risk of its own air defense interceptors being depleted before it can effectively degrade Iran’s retaliatory capacity.

While the precise size of the Pentagon’s air defense inventory—referred to as “magazine depth”—remains classified, protracted conflicts in the region are eroding these stocks.

One of the factors exacerbating this situation is the cost disparity between offense and defense. The unit cost of Iran’s short-range Fateh-110 ballistic missiles ranges from approximately $100,000 to $300,000.

For longer-range systems such as the Zolfaghar and Sejjil, this figure ranges from $300,000 up to $1 million. The cost of Shahed-136 suicide drones, widely utilized by Iran, is estimated to be between $20,000 and $40,000.

In contrast, the air defense interceptors deployed by the US reach costs in the millions. The unit cost of a Patriot PAC-3 interceptor is approximately $3-4 million, while the THAAD system costs $12-15 million, and sea-based SM-3 interceptors range from $25-30 million.

According to experts, this creates a structural imbalance, necessitating the use of significantly more expensive interceptors against relatively low-cost missiles and drones.

A similar cost pressure applies to Israel. According to Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, the David’s Sling system—developed jointly with the US—incurs an expenditure of approximately $700,000 each time it is deployed, as it typically requires at least two interceptors.

An interception with the Arrow 3 system, which destroys long-range ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, costs about $4 million, while the older Arrow 2 system costs approximately $3 million.

The cost of operations is not limited to air defense systems. The US also makes intensive use of sea-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions launched from aircraft.

Defense analysts state that Tomahawk missiles are particularly effective against infrastructure targets and would be among the munition items depleted most rapidly during the first weeks of a potential US-China conflict.

According to data released in June, the hourly flight cost of F-35 fighter jets operating for hours at a distance of approximately 1,600 kilometers from Israeli territory is about $10,000.

The costs of refueling, as well as JDAM and MK84-type bombs, are added to the total expenditure. Experts emphasize that the course of the conflict could ultimately turn into a “war of attrition” regarding stockpiles.

In the current situation, the number of remaining interceptor missiles and the number of active launch pads Iran can maintain are emerging as decisive factors. The US has dispatched a significant quantity of interceptors and missiles to the region.

However, should the war be prolonged, the Pentagon will have to make a critical decision regarding whether to tap into stockpiles in the Pacific. This choice has the potential to produce strategic consequences for the balance of deterrence against China.