Pentagon report warns Russian military maintains strategic edge as Ukraine exhaustion grows

The Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has concluded that Russian military forces maintained a general advantage over the Ukrainian army across critical combat fronts through the end of 2025. The assessment, detailed in a Special Inspector General report to Congress on Operation Atlantic Resolve, scrutinized the period from July 1 to December 31, 2025.

In the document, published on the Department of Defense Office of Inspector General (DoDIG) website, investigators found that Moscow’s forces successfully preserved their strategic and tactical edge as the year drew to a close.

The report underscores that years of unrelenting, high-intensity conflict have severely exhausted the Ukrainian armed forces. It notes that Kyiv’s military remains inadequately prepared to counter the tactical offensives launched by Russian units.

“As of December, Russian military forces maintained their general advantage over the Ukrainian army in key combat directions,” the document states, noting that Ukraine has lost approximately 20% of its territory since the commencement of hostilities.

US intelligence data indicates that Russian forces are increasingly proficient in the deployment of “shturm” (assault) groups to sustain offensive momentum along the frontline.

Conversely, Ukrainian units are grappling with systemic internal friction. The report highlights a lack of cohesion among commanders in implementing Western-style maneuver warfare. These structural issues are compounded by chronic shortages in personnel, a lack of sufficient air support, and a diminished capacity to breach fortified Russian defensive lines.

The Pentagon assessment draws attention to the structural hurdles facing the administration in Kyiv, noting a decline in Ukraine’s capacity to sustain long-term military operations.

“Ukraine is experiencing a decline in its ability to maintain military operations due to a shrinking pool of draft-eligible men, difficulties in training processes, and a persistent dependence on Western aid,” the report concludes. Furthermore, the document points to a continuous instability in the supply of missiles required for Ukraine’s air defense systems.

In a December briefing to President Vladimir Putin, General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, reported that Russian units are successfully penetrating deep into Ukrainian defensive tiers.

Gerasimov claimed that more than 330 settlements have been brought under Russian control since the beginning of the year, asserting that the pace of the advance reached its annual peak in December. According to the General, Ukrainian forces have largely abandoned offensive operations, shifting instead to a strategy of purely attritional defense aimed at slowing the Russian progress.

President Putin previously remarked that, given the current rate of advancement, Russia’s interest in a Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied territories has effectively “dropped to zero.”

In contrast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in January that delays in European payments had prevented the timely delivery of US-manufactured air defense missiles. Zelenskyy attributed recent nationwide power outages to these logistical failures by European partners.

The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to maintain that its strike campaign is directed exclusively at military targets, energy facilities, and associated infrastructure within Ukraine.