Polish bank report identifies cities most at risk in case of war

The Polish National Development Bank (BGK) has prepared a new report listing the cities with the highest risk of attack in the event of war.

The study, reported by the newspaper Wyborcza, comparatively examined the scale of military threats and the preparedness levels of local governments for such scenarios.

Analysts specifically emphasized that the study does not contain a prediction of “which cities Russia would attack first.” The report’s primary purpose is to offer concrete recommendations to increase the level of preparedness against the threat of war.

During the analysis, bank experts focused on four main areas: natural disasters, humanitarian crises, health risks, and military threats. The military threat category included assessments of hot conflict, hybrid operations, disinformation activities, and cyberattacks.

Capital Warsaw and port cities top the list

According to the report’s scoring system, the capital city of Warsaw emerged as the city facing the most intense military threat, with a score of 85 out of 90. The city’s preparedness level was determined to be 51 out of 60.

The port city of Gdansk received a threat score of 70 against a preparedness score of 45, while for Elblag, these figures were calculated as 53 and 32, respectively.

Gdynia was on the list with a threat score of 51 and a preparedness score of 38, while Bialystok similarly had a threat score of 51 against a preparedness score of 36. The analysis also shared data for the cities of Plock (49 threat, 46 preparedness), Krakow (49 threat, 44 preparedness), Bydgoszcz (41 threat, 38 preparedness), and Wroclaw (37 threat, 44 preparedness).

Strategic infrastructure and border regions are decisive factors

Mateusz Walewski, Director of the Research and Analysis Department at the bank, explained the logic behind the risk ranking:

“It is clear that the capital will face the greatest military risk. It is followed by cities with key infrastructure and settlements near the eastern border. For this reason, the port city of Gdansk, the industrial city of Elblag, the border city of Bialystok, and Gdynia and Plock, which host refineries, are in the high-risk group.”