Political scientist Ulrike Guérot: We need to think about a Europe beyond the EU

As the European Parliament (EP) elections on 6-9 June approach, the debate on the political destiny of the continent is intensifying. The future of the EU is becoming uncertain, especially in light of the migration crisis, the war in Ukraine and the energy shock.

Prof. Dr. Ulrike Guérot, one of Germany’s leading experts on Europe and a political scientist who was forced to resign from her position at the University of Bonn because of her stance against the war in Ukraine, spoke at the roundtable entitled “Future Scenarios for Europe”, hosted by Harici and moderated by Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal.

Beginning her speech with anecdotes about the EU and Turkey’s EU membership process, Guérot compared 20 years ago with today and asked what went wrong with the EU project.

Describing the excitement that the project that culminated in the Maastricht Treaty in the early 1990s generated both in himself and in Europe at the time, the political scientist argued that there was political energy and political conviction at the time, as well as a projection of Europe’s future ‘soft power’.

Guérot recalled that the security architecture for peace with Russia worked in the 1990s, that in the early 2000s German public sympathy for Russia approached that of the United States, and that Vladimir Putin even made a speech in the German Bundestag.

However, according to Guérot, concepts such as soft power and global governance began to lose their meaning with the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Referring to the ‘no’ vote in the 2005 French referendum on the EU Constitution, the political scientist said that the moment of ‘enlargement’ was missed with the process with Turkey, the EU became ‘neo-liberalised’, much less social, the ‘anti-Russian’ memories of the Eastern European countries that had recently joined the EU resurfaced, and finally the crisis of 2008 came.

Noting that the EU has lost its political will with this crisis and that the idea of a ‘social Europe’ has begun to die, Guérot said that the mainstream has turned to ‘austerity’ instead of increasing social spending in response to the crisis.

Pointing out that the crisis and the austerity response to the crisis are the main reasons for the rise of populism and the right in Europe, Guérot recalled Walter Benjamin’s words: “Behind every rising fascism there is a failed social revolution”.

The German political scientist pointed out that Europe ‘lacked the capacity for discourse’ in the aftermath of the crisis, and that the refugee crisis, on top of the refugee crisis, led to the rise of a new wave of populism, giving rise to parties such as the AfD in Germany and the FPÖ in Austria.

Guérot argued that young Europeans have no idea what Europe is about and that there is no longer a political-democratic project.

Guérot believes that the EP elections will not be enough to get out of the crisis and that the militarisation of the EU will continue, not only militarily but also in the form of the suppression of dissenting voices, for example through legislation such as the Digital Services Act.

The German political scientist stressed that the war in Ukraine is completely harmful and suicidal for Germany and the other European countries, and that Brussels is being hypocritical about Kiev’s accession to the EU and that the country cannot be admitted to the EU at the snap of a finger.

Guérot believes that there is no winner in Ukraine and that the West is selling illusions, that everyone knows this, but that the West is still being told that it cannot back down.

We need to think about Europe beyond the EU,” Guérot said, adding that questions such as “can the EU still be reformed? Or can it not?”, she said.

The political scientist, who advocates the ‘liberation’ of Europe, especially from its own institutions, said that she was not talking about an anti-American Europe, but a ‘post-Atlantic’ Europe, and that his solution was a ‘European republic’ in which borders would become irrelevant.

Arguing that peace and a federal structure were the only way for Europe not to ‘explode’, Guérot suggested that peace should be established regardless of national borders, that a European citizenship should be built beyond nationalities, and that a sovereignty of ‘citizenship’ should be established outside the EU institutions and nation states.

According to Guérot, Europe has three historical characteristics. 1) The history of Europe has always been a balance of power. I think a multipolar world would be very useful. 2) The republic has a special meaning for Europe. European history is linked to the theoretical and intellectual traditions of other empires, i.e. interconnectedness. The idea of society and republic is not compatible with the US or neo-liberalism, and 3) Europe is self-existent in a non-religious but transcendent way,’ she said.