The first debate of the 2024 US election is behind us. After four years, we saw an almost ageless Trump and a very old Biden. Very old… In 2020, there were frequent concerns about his health. However, he managed to stay relatively fresh in the debate and built up the image of “tons of Uncle Joe” against Trump’s aggressive style. The intervening four years have not been kind to Uncle Joe… His disgusted look, as if he had seen his son Hunter’s video archive, his hoarse voice and his 7-8 second pause at the beginning of the debate completely dashed the Democrats’ hopes. The rest of the debate, however, was not so bad. Again, much of what he said was misunderstood, but at least there was no similar pause. In fact, when he did not pause, he spoke even faster than usual, perhaps due to the effect of the drugs…
Don’t answer any questions and win
Trump’s strategy was a little more interesting. In my pre-debate article, I said that Trump would not want to get into the Israel issue. Trump would be afraid of bringing back the leftists who were angry with Biden. That is exactly what happened. But Trump did not answer any question, not just the Israel question. Let me give the following example from the dialogue between the moderators and Trump;
“What would you like to say to citizens who fear that their democratic rights will be taken away because of the events of January 6?”
“Joe’s economic policies have finished off the US. Nobody respects us!”
Most of the debate went like this. Trump muted both Biden and the moderators in his head and went out to say what he had to say. The Republican leader ended the debate without answering almost any question. Of course, as I expected, the new debate rules worked in Trump’s favour. With his own microphone switched off while Biden was speaking, he was unable to interrupt his opponent at all. In contrast to 2020, this gave the impression of a “gentleman who does not interrupt”.
In terms of content, there were no surprises. Trump, of course, talked about the economy, the huge aid packages to Ukraine, the migrant crisis under Biden. When it came to blacks, he said that “the border is so full of holes that blacks and Latinos are both experiencing security problems and losing their jobs to immigrants”. In addition, Trump recalled that Biden used the term “group of deviants” to refer to blacks in the 90s. Biden preferred to stay away from the issue of racism this time because Trump, according to the latest poll, is getting 30 per cent of all black votes in the country. This is an incredible figure for a Republican candidate who has been accused of white supremacy by his opponents. If the polls are correct, Trump will have increased his minority vote in every election he has contested.
Then the issue of Ukraine came up, which was a real kick in the teeth… When Biden mentioned Trump’s known cases, the subject suddenly turned to Ukraine. Trump said: “You’re guilty too. Haven’t you put pressure on Ukraine by using the power of the US for your personal business? You are still killing thousands of people. By the way, the death toll in Ukraine is not accurate. Multiply it by two or even three. Ukraine will lose the war, it has no people left”.
As for Israel, as I said, Trump did not want to talk about it too much. It should be said that this is also a first: reaffirming support for Israel is no longer a very favourable situation for either candidate. Biden is already losing votes because of it. But among non-evangelical conservatives, unconditional support for Israel has become unpopular. That’s why Trump said just one sentence. “Joe, you’re a bad Palestinian, even they don’t like you,” and he closed the subject.
What happens now?
The rest of the debate was characterised by mutual personal attacks and Trump saying 98 times, “Everybody’s making fun of us”. But the real question is: what happens next? Even before Biden left the stage, there was an unprecedented reaction from the Democrats. There was a “king naked” moment, not only in Democrat-dominated social media groups, but also among Democratic opinion leaders;
Biden would lose if he went into the election this way.
So what can be done? The “Biden Withdrawal” debate, which was previously conducted in hushed tones, is now being raised louder. However, the bureaucratic basis for this makes it very difficult. Traditionally, it is not customary to run against an incumbent president. That is why both Kamala Harris, his running mate, and Gavin Newsom, the governor of California and the most popular Democratic candidate, have declined to run, despite widespread rumours. A key date was Super Tuesday in March, when 15 states held their primaries. It should be noted that Biden managed to get 3900 of the 4000 delegates. There is no force that can remove him from the nomination against Biden’s will.
If Biden withdraws, however, new candidate discussions will begin. Although Gavin Newsom said after last night’s debate that “we’ve never been more united behind Biden”, dissent is growing in his party. If Biden withdraws today, there can be no primary. However, the delegates can agree on a new nominee and vice presidential candidate. All Democratic Party experts say that if this happens, there will be major infighting within the party. If Biden withdraws, he can tell the delegates who are supporting him whom he is supporting, but the delegates do not have to comply. Of course, if that is the intention, every day closer to the election means more bureaucratic turmoil for the party. If it happens in the last month, even ballot papers could be changed.
If Biden withdraws, the two potential candidates would be Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. However, these names are behind Biden at the moment. In the current situation, as many have said, Trump’s hopes are very high. But there is still a long way to go before the election. So it makes sense to put aside the polls and the memorised commentaries. In any case, the Democratic Party is in for a very painful electoral process.
