Rumen Radev’s coalition takes commanding lead in Bulgaria snap elections

The “Progressive Bulgaria” coalition, led by former President Rumen Radev, has secured a commanding lead in Bulgaria’s snap general elections, finishing first with a significant majority of the vote.

According to exit polls released by the research firms Alpha Research and Market Links, Radev’s coalition has established a strong parliamentary dominance. Alpha Research data placed Progressive Bulgaria at 37.5%, while Market Links reported the figure at 38.9%.

The incumbent GERB-SDS coalition, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and known for its pro-European integration stance, followed in second place with 16.2% (Alpha Research) and 15.4% (Market Links). The “Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria” (PP-DB) alliance ranked third, receiving 14.3% and 13.6% respectively.

Other political entities expected to surpass the 4% parliamentary threshold include Delyan Peevski’s “New Start” alliance (8.4% and 7.5%), the “Revival” party led by Kostadin Kostadinov (4.9% and 5.1%), and the “BSP/United Left” coalition, which garnered 4.1% according to both agencies.

Projections for the distribution of seats in the 52nd National Assembly suggest that Progressive Bulgaria will secure between 105 and 110 mandates. GERB-SDS is expected to hold 44-46 seats, while PP-DB is projected to take 40. New Start is estimated to win 24 seats, followed by Revival with 14 and United Left with 11.

Voter turnout is expected to be higher than in any of the seven previous elections held since April 2021. Data from Alpha Research and Market Links indicated that turnout reached between 46.7% and 47.2% as of 7:00 PM.

Speaking after casting his vote in the capital, Sofia, Rumen Radev expressed his intention to develop practical relations with Russia based on mutual respect and equality. “Ultimately, we need a path toward a democratic, modern, and European Bulgaria,” Radev stated.

In contrast, GERB leader Boyko Borisov emphasized his party’s support for Ukraine and its efforts toward European integration. “The GERB party brought the country into the eurozone; that is currently a very strong anchor. I hope this anchor will hold us and not allow us to shift toward the East,” Borisov said.

Ahead of the vote, the Financial Times, citing sociological data, had shared projections of a Radev victory and noted concerns that Radev could represent a risk within NATO. Valerie Hayer, a Member of the European Parliament, told the Financial Times: “Given Radev’s known approach to Putin and Russia, there is a risk of a pro-Kremlin government being formed at a critical time; he would be Putin’s Trojan horse in Europe.”

Rumen Radev stepped down from the presidency in mid-January following protests sparked by economic policies and allegations of corruption. Radev, who had led the country since 2017 and was re-elected in 2021, was ineligible for a third term due to constitutional restrictions. Following the resignation of Prime Minister Rosen Jelyazkov one month ago, Bulgaria has been governed by a caretaker administration as it prepares for its planned entry into the eurozone on Jan. 1, 2026.

The domestic unrest erupted following the mid-November announcement of a 2026 draft budget that proposed a 2% cut to pensions and a 10% increase in the dividend tax. While the government scaled back these measures following large-scale protests in Sofia on Dec. 1, which involved clashes with police, demonstrators’ demands had already expanded to include the resignation of the cabinet.