Russia–Ukraine failed peace talks: The war must go on

Nikola Mikovic, journalist

The mountain has labored and brought forth a mouse. The long-awaited peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were finally held on May 16 in Istanbul, though they failed to produce a ceasefire or a peace agreement. The question now is: what comes next?

Initially, Russian and Ukrainian representatives were scheduled to meet in the largest Turkish city on May 15. Since the Ukrainian delegation did not appear, the peace talks were postponed to the following day. Such a move could be interpreted as a diplomatic humiliation for Moscow, given that the Russian officials waited the entire day in vain for their Ukrainian counterparts. Kyiv seems to have adopted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of being notoriously late for important diplomatic meetings. The problem for Ukraine, however, is that this approach did not yield any positive results.

According to reports, the Russian delegation has issued maximalist demands, expecting Kyiv to withdraw its troops from four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia) annexed by the Kremlin in exchange for a ceasefire. Russia has also reportedly threatened to seize Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy regions. In reality, however, Moscow lacks the capacity to seize the town of Vovchansk in the Khariv region, located just 5 kilometers (3 miles) from the Russian border, let alone the entire oblast. Its rhetoric, therefore, seems like a bluff. Fully aware of this, Kyiv rejected any territorial concessions to Russia. 

Prior to the talks, Ukraine, firmly backed by European powers, insisted on an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, while Moscow wanted any potential truce to be result from the negotiations. In other words, the two sides could not even agree on the first steps, which was a clear indication that reaching a deal will be easier said than done. Still, they managed to agree on exchanging 1,000 prisoners of war each, which is the only positive outcome of the Istanbul peace talks. 

Although Russian and Ukrainian delegations are expected to continue negotiations, there is no guarantee that they will reach a peace (or at least a ceasefire) deal anytime soon. Their positions are fundamentally opposed. More importantly, neither side has achieved any of its strategic objectives on the battlefield, which effectively rules out any immediate opportunity for peace. But this is not the first time their peace talks have failed.

Days after Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian and Ukrainian representatives met in Belarus in an attempt to end Moscow’s so-called “special military operation”, as Russian troops were on the outskirts of Kyiv. Ukrainian officials agreed to travel to the neighboring nation even though it is a close ally of Russia and had allowed Russian forces to use Belarusian territory for attacks on their country. Talks, however, concluded without any result.

Later rounds of talks took place in March 2022 on the Belarus–Ukraine border and in Antalya, Türkiye. Since then, Istanbul has become the major platform not only for their peace summits, but also for discussions on the grain deal – a document, signed in July 2022, under which the Kremlin effectively allows its opponent to freely exports grain via the Black Sea route. Although Türkiye undoubtedly played an important role in helping Moscow and Kyiv sign The Black Sea Grain Initiative, the 2022 peace talks in Istanbul failed to end the conflict.

The Istanbul talks in 2025 differ significantly from those held in 2022. At the time, Russia demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops only from the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, along with a de facto recognition of Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. Now the Kremlin’s demands have grown, as Russia is also calling for the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. More importantly, as a result of the 2022 Istanbul talks, Russia made a “goodwill gesture” by withdrawing its troops from Kyiv, as well as Sumy and Chernihiv regions of Ukraine. This time, however, the Kremlin has shown no willingness to make any serious concessions to Kyiv—at least for now.

Moscow has also demonstrated that negotiations can be conducted without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that he does not want to negotiate with the “illegitimate” Zelensky. Therefore, any talks with Ukraine’s president would undermine Putin’s credibility, which is something he wanted to avoid at any cost. 

Zelensky, on the other hand, despite signing a decree in 2022 formally declaring negotiations with Putin to be “impossible,” openly said that he wants to meet with the Russian president. He likely aimed to demonstrate a willingness to end the conflict, while simultaneously portraying Putin as someone who “does not want to negotiate.”

The Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul even requested a meeting between the two leaders. Russia has “taken note” of Kyiv’s ambition. That, however, does not necessarily mean that Putin will agree to meet with Zelensky, at least not before his potential meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. 

In the meantime, the Ukraine war will go on. As Medinsky said, quoting Napoleon, “War and negotiations are always conducted at the same time.” Both sides will, therefore, be preparing for a summer military campaign, although they are expected to continue to create the illusion that reaching a lasting peace deal without defeating the opponent is possible.

Finally, until one of the two sides prevails, Türkiye, as a host country, will remain the winner of the peace talks. On May 8, during a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump offered him to become a mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Three days later Putin, without mentioning Trump’s efforts,  acknowledged the role of Türkiye and its president in organizing the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.

Türkiye has, therefore, once again solidified its position as an influential player capable of hosting peace negotiations. That is why a new round of Russian-Ukrainian talks will almost certainly take place in Istanbul – sooner rather than later.