Russia’s oil exports hit yearly high despite rising competition in India

Russia’s oil exports have reached their highest volume of the year so far, despite intensifying competition in the Indian market, one of the country’s key destinations for crude shipments.

According to Bloomberg, citing vessel-tracking data and port agency reports, competition in India has increased after Iran boosted its exports following the suspension of US sanctions.

Weekly data showed that Russia’s average daily oil shipments rose to 4.11 million barrels in the week ending June 21, marking the highest level recorded this year.

The figure stood at 3.9 million barrels per day the previous week. During the latest reporting period, 38 tankers loaded a total of 28.79 million barrels of Russian crude, compared with 27.29 million barrels transported by 37 vessels in the preceding week.

The volume of Russian oil at sea also climbed to 125 million barrels, up 26% from the roughly 100 million-barrel low recorded in April. The report noted that nearly all of this volume was aboard vessels in transit.

Declining global prices weigh on revenues

According to analysts, the gross value of Russia’s oil exports declined as Urals crude prices fell in line with lower prices for global benchmarks including Brent, WTI and Dubai crude.

During the four-week period ending June 21, weekly export revenues fell to $1.72 billion from $2.02 billion in the period ending before June 14.

The decline in prices was attributed to progress in US-Iran talks.

The price of Urals crude fell by $8.10 per barrel to $69.98 at Baltic ports and by $7.90 to $69.37 at Black Sea ports.

Russia’s ESPO blend declined by $7.40 to $79.87 per barrel, while prices for oil delivered to India fell for a ninth consecutive week, dropping by $8.80 per barrel to $90.36, according to Argus Media data.

Russia’s oil shipments to its Asian customers rose to 3.73 million barrels per day, the highest level since 2022.

However, volumes aboard tankers with China and India explicitly listed as destinations declined, while shipments carried by vessels without a specified final destination increased to approximately 1.95 million barrels per day. Of that total, 1.56 million barrels per day was carried by tankers departing western ports and heading toward intermediary locations such as Port Said or the Suez Canal, as well as Pacific tankers without a clearly identified delivery point.

Bloomberg said Russia’s global oil exports could decline if shipments from the Middle East increase following the US-Iran understanding that envisages the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Before the war, approximately 20% of the world’s oil consumption was transported through that route.

Reuters, citing data from international analytics firm Kpler, reported that Russian oil and coal shipments to India are expected to reach a record 2.55 million barrels per day in June, up from 2.13 million barrels per day in May.

India’s increased purchases of Russian oil came after the administration of US President Donald Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil purchases amid an energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran. Trump said in June that the sanctions waivers could soon be withdrawn because of falling global oil prices.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz accelerated the return of Iranian oil to the market after the United States pledged to ease sanctions and allow its sale.

Bloomberg reported that Iran’s openly declared oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had risen to their highest level since the start of the war.

The United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on the night of June 18 providing for a cessation of hostilities, negotiations on a final agreement within 60 days, the gradual lifting of sanctions, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Following the announcement of the agreement, Brent crude fell below $83 per barrel for the first time in three months.

However, two days later Tehran announced that it had closed the strait again, accusing Washington of violating the agreement and citing Israeli attacks on Lebanon.