Russia’s seaborne crude exports hit highest level since early 2022

Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports have reached their highest level since the beginning of 2022.

According to tanker tracking data cited by Bloomberg, the sharp increase in shipment volumes has not translated into higher budget revenues, as declining global oil prices have weighed on export earnings.

The data showed that Russia exported an average of 4.13 million barrels of crude per day by sea during the four weeks ending June 28.

In the latest one-week period alone, shipments rose to 32.39 million barrels carried by 43 tankers, compared with 28.79 million barrels transported by 38 vessels the previous week.

Meanwhile, the volume of Russian crude in transit to buyers climbed by about one-third from mid-April to 133 million barrels.

Some of those cargoes were reported to be waiting off the coasts of Egypt and Singapore. According to Bloomberg analysts, this could indicate that finding new buyers for all exported cargoes is becoming increasingly difficult.

Falling prices weigh on revenues

Despite higher shipment volumes, oil export earnings declined. Calculations showed that average weekly export revenue stood at $1.9 billion over the latest four-week period.

That marks the lowest weekly revenue level since March.

The decline was primarily attributed to weaker global oil prices. Russia’s benchmark Urals crude fell to around $62 a barrel, tracking broader declines in international benchmarks.

Crude loaded via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline also declined, with prices falling to $74 a barrel.

Progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran has fueled expectations of increased oil supplies from Gulf producers, adding further downward pressure on prices.

Asia remains the leading market

Asia continued to account for the largest share of Russian crude purchases. Average shipments to the region reached 3.98 million barrels per day during the latest four-week period, setting a new record since the beginning of 2022.

Bloomberg said some tankers have yet to declare their final destinations, although a significant share of those cargoes could eventually be routed to India.

Another factor behind the increase in exports is the decline in processing capacity at Russian refineries. Crude that would otherwise have been refined domestically may instead have been redirected to export markets.

Bloomberg had previously reported that seaborne exports remained at elevated levels.

At the time, the agency said higher shipments reflected increased competition in the Indian market as Iranian crude regained market share, together with reduced refinery activity inside Russia. It noted that although physical export volumes had increased, weaker global prices had limited revenue growth.

Global market outlook weakens

According to a Reuters survey published on Tuesday, analysts lowered their oil price forecasts for the first time in five months.

Analysts attributed the revision to easing concerns over supply disruptions following the normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, expectations that Gulf producers will gradually restore exports, and planned output increases by the OPEC+ alliance.

Weaker-than-expected demand from China is also weighing on the market.

In addition, following the lifting of the US blockade over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and other Gulf producers have rapidly increased their oil exports.

Sellers of Iranian crude in the Chinese market have also reportedly cut prices in response to rising supply.