Sanae Takaichi secures historic supermajority in Japan’s landmark winter election

Sanae Takaichi’s governing coalition secured a crushing victory in Sunday’s lower house elections, granting the Prime Minister a commanding “supermajority” with 352 seats. The results signal a definitive shift in Japan’s regional posture, as the leader looks to maintain a hawkish stance toward China in alignment with US policy, bolster national defense, and move away from the country’s traditional pacifist framework.

Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader who cites the United Kingdom’s “Iron Lady” Margaret Thatcher as her primary inspiration, led the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to 316 seats in the 465-member House of Representatives, according to final counts released by public broadcaster NHK early Monday.

While the LDP easily cleared the 233-seat threshold required for a simple majority on its own, its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, secured an additional 36 seats.

With a combined 352 seats, Takaichi now holds a supermajority in the lower house. This status effectively streamlines her legislative agenda, allowing the lower house to override the upper chamber where necessary, despite lacking a majority there.

The results mark the party’s most significant electoral triumph since its founding in 1955, surpassing the previous record of 300 seats set in 1986 under the late Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone.

“This election centered on major policy shifts—particularly a significant transformation in economic and fiscal policy, alongside the strengthening of our security posture,” Takaichi said in a televised interview as the results were finalized. “These are policies that have faced serious opposition. If we have received the support of the people, we must dedicate our full strength to these issues.”

Conversely, the new opposition alliance—comprised of the LDP’s former, more dovish coalition partner Komeito and the liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan—is expected to see its pre-election strength of 167 seats slashed by half.

First to congratulate: The US, India and Taiwan

US President Donald Trump congratulated Takaichi’s coalition on Sunday.

“Congratulations to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Coalition on a BIG VICTORY,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. “It was an honor to support you and your coalition. I wish you great success as you implement your conservative agenda based on the principle of peace through strength.”

Trump had voiced his explicit support for Takaichi on Friday, describing her as a “highly respected and very popular leader.” He added that Takaichi’s “brave and smart decision” to call the election had clearly paid off.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also extended his congratulations. “Congratulations Sanae Takaichi on your historic victory in the House of Representatives elections!” Modi posted on social media Sunday, adding, “I am confident that under your capable leadership, we will further advance the India-Japan friendship.”

Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te also shared a message on social media offering his “heartfelt congratulations.”

The 64-year-old Takaichi called the rare winter snap election following her ascent to the LDP leadership late last year, seeking to capitalize on rising personal approval ratings.

While voters were drawn to her outspoken and industrious image, her promises of tax cuts have caused some unease in financial markets. Simultaneously, her ultra-nationalist tendencies and emphasis on security have strained relations with an increasingly assertive China.

Weeks after taking office, Takaichi sparked the most significant dispute with Beijing in a decade by publicly discussing how Tokyo might respond to a potential Chinese intervention in Taiwan.

In November, her suggestion that Japan could involve itself in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan escalated tensions further. Beijing responded by imposing restrictions on the export of rare earth elements to Japan and issuing travel warnings for the country.

Beijing has continued to emphasize its plans for reunification with Taiwan—which the United Nations recognizes as part of China—into 2026. While many nations, including the US, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan and support separatist trends against China. Takaichi’s alignment with US interests in this dispute has drawn the ire of Beijing.

A strong electoral mandate is expected to accelerate Takaichi’s plans to strengthen Japan’s defenses—a move Beijing characterizes as an attempt to revive the country’s militaristic past.

“Beijing will not welcome Takaichi’s victory,” said David Boling, a director at the Asia Group, which advises firms on geopolitical risk. “China is now faced with the reality that she is firmly established and that their efforts to isolate her have failed.”

Takaichi captured young voters

Takaichi managed to partially reverse the party’s fortunes by building a massive social media following and forging a connection with younger voters.

“Takaichi’s personal appeal will allow LDP candidates, who might otherwise struggle to get elected, to win seats through her endorsement,” Levi McLaughlin, a professor at North Carolina State University, told This Week in Asia.

The Prime Minister has also triggered an unexpected youth-driven trend known as sanakatsu—roughly translated as “Sanae craze”—which has led to high demand for merchandise she uses in parliament, such as her handbag and pink pens.

“She beats the drum. She has an interest in Korean products, music, and the entertainment sector. Unlike the rest of her party, she is active on social media,” said Mark Cogan, an associate professor at Kansai Gaidai University.

“She is markedly different from her rather stagnant peers,” Cogan noted, adding that this distinctiveness helped her weather various political storms, including diplomatic tensions with Beijing.

However, Cogan questioned the longevity of this popularity: “The real question is how long ‘Sanae craze’ will last. Is this a case of young people being swept up by something new or different while ignoring policy positions that do not always align with their own interests?”

The election was only the third general election in the post-war era to be held in February, as polls are typically conducted during more temperate months.

What challenges await Takaichi?

Following the dissolution of the lower house on January 19, a special session must be convened to officially elect the prime minister. This session is expected to take place on February 18. Takaichi’s immediate priority will be passing the annual budget for the fiscal year beginning in April.

While budget deliberations usually take about two months, the process was disrupted by the snap election. Takaichi is expected to prepare a provisional budget to ensure Japan’s financial operations continue through the first weeks of the fiscal year.

Another priority will be materializing her proactive fiscal policy. One of her core campaign messages was to increase domestic investment by targeting sectors with high growth potential. She also spoke of building a nation “resilient to currency fluctuations.” A framework for basic economic and fiscal policy, expected around June, is likely to outline measures to attract private investment back to Japan.

On the diplomatic front, Takaichi’s management of relations with both the US and China will be decisive and challenging.

She is expected to focus on reaffirming the robust Japan-US partnership. Takaichi will travel to the US on March 19 to meet with Trump at the White House, aiming to further solidify their strong relationship.

How Takaichi will navigate Japan-China relations remains uncertain. Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a visit to China in April, and the US President is thought to want to move relations with China to a more “stable” level.

Despite the strong mandate from voters, Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight notes that significant hurdles remain.

“The markets are watching her every move closely,” Harris said. “The truth is, it’s impossible to predict what will happen when the meeting between Trump and Xi takes place. If the US and China move closer while Japan and China do not move in the same direction, it leaves Takaichi in a delicate and uncomfortable position.”

“The issue of defense spending will be extremely complex,” Harris continued. “There is a consensus on spending more, but no consensus on how to finance it. This will pose a serious challenge, as will managing a larger LDP. She will have a strong base, but that doesn’t make these problems disappear; it only gives her more room to maneuver while addressing them.”