The dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which reached its peak in 2016 with Riyadh’s execution of 47 people, including Shiite cleric Nimr al-Baqir Nimr, was resolved a year ago in a deal hosted by China. The past year provides ample data to evaluate the emerging situation in the context of bilateral relations, regional and global order.
Efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran began in March 2021. The fifth and final round of talks, which Oman also participated in, occurred on 23 April 2022 in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. Officials from the intelligence and security units of both countries attended the talks. Contacts were expected to move to the foreign affairs level following the talks. However, the process was slowed down due to the change of prime minister in Iraq. Mohammed al-Shiya Sudani, who replaced former Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, did not demonstrate sufficient interest in the negotiation processes.
The location of the host China: Sometimes it’s good to be away
As per Iranian journalist Seyed Azami, it has been suggested that the Saudi leadership took the initiative to resolve the situation and requested mediation from Chinese President Xi Jinping, who visited the country in December 2022. The fact that this was Xi’s third visit to the country after 2016 and 2018, and his speech in Saudi Arabia, may lend credibility to this claim. During the first China-Arab States Summit in Riyadh, Xi Jinping encouraged regional actors to participate in the Global Security Initiative announced by Beijing and outlined the principles that should underpin a new security architecture. After Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi’s visit to China in February 2023 indicated that the dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran would continue in the Chinese capital.
China is the largest trading partner of both Saudi Arabia and Iran, and its strategic partnership with both countries clearly has an influence on both sides. However, resolving a dispute with a historical background and complex dimensions can be challenging. When asked about this issue, Li Shaoxian, President of the China-Arab Countries Research Institute, suggested that sometimes distance can be beneficial.
Li Shaoxian used the metaphor of distance to illustrate that Beijing’s foreign policy is not burdened by issues such as occupation or plunder in the region, unlike the United States. He also emphasized that China’s status as a global economic power and a member of the UNSC fosters trust. However, he acknowledged that it may not be possible to engage in peace talks with countries that are unwilling to do so.
The shared imperatives that led to cooperation between Riyadh and Tehran
Since mid-2021, Iran and Saudi Arabia have expressed their desire for peace through their initiatives and statements. The reasons behind these two countries seeking peace are closely related to their respective situations and priorities.
One of the most significant reasons for Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy shift is its relationship with the US. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may have concerns about the potential change of power in the US, given the current state of relations between the two countries. However, it is worth noting that both Democratic and Republican administrations have prioritized the Asia-Pacific region in their National Security Documents. It is worth noting that Riyadh currently lacks an interlocutor who can provide satisfactory security guarantees. This is a situation that has been highlighted by the recent experience of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, as well as the withdrawal of support for Saudi forces against the Houthis in Yemen. In addition to the US, the United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from the coalition in the Yemeni arena. Egypt has shown indifference when asked to train pilots, and Sudan, another member of the mission, is currently facing internal turmoil. These developments have reinforced the need for Riyadh to establish a new security paradigm.
The new chapter Saudi Arabia wanted to open is also in line with the country’s economic orientation. As per the Vision 2030 model, the government of Riyadh has planned to transition away from oil dependence and establish itself as a sustainable economic, trade, technology, and tourism hub. Despite the drone attacks by the Houthis in 2019, it is evident that Crown Prince Salman’s vision of a ‘hub country’ will not be deterred.
Iran, on the other hand, faces both an opportunity and a challenge due to the diverging priorities of the US and the rivalry between the Gulf states. The ongoing Gulf-Israel normalization, which began with the Abraham Accords under former US President Donald Trump and has continued under current President Joe Biden, is now approaching its final stage. In other words, Washington was prioritizing the Middle East in a way that was not conducive to progress, while entrusting it to a bloc that was likely to become more radical in its opposition to Iran. Following the UAE and Bahrain, President Biden aimed to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. To achieve this goal, he met with Mohammed bin Salman, despite previously referring to him as a ‘pariah’ after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Given the recent pause in relations between Turkey and Israel, which ceased on 7 October, there may be cause for concern in Tehran.
Iran faced a challenge and an opportunity due to the diverging priorities of the US and the rivalry between Gulf states. The Gulf-Israel normalisation, which began with the Abraham Accords under former US President Donald Trump and continued under current President Joe Biden, is now in its final stretch. Washington was prioritising other regions over the Middle East, but still entrusted it to a bloc that was likely to become more radical in its opposition to Iran. Following the UAE and Bahrain, Biden aimed to normalise relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. He did not hesitate to meet with Mohammed bin Salman, despite previously describing him as a ‘pariah’ after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Alarm bells were ringing for Tehran due to the halt in the détente between Turkey and Israel on 7 October.
Agreements and commitments that made
Saudi Arabia and Iran opened their embassies and committed to returning to the 2001 security cooperation agreement on 10 March 2023. Iran opened its embassy in Saudi Arabia in August, and Saudi Arabia resumed its diplomatic activities, which it had suspended in 2016. In September 2023, both countries’ ambassadors were present at their posts.
The normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran was a list of what to do and what not to do. Although not explicitly stated in the official agreement, multiple sources confirm that the parties agreed not to interfere in each other’s internal affairs and to refrain from supporting the opposition. Media reports suggest that Riyadh has requested Iran’s assistance in influencing the Houthis. However, Tehran has made it clear that the cessation of support for the Saudi-funded opposition Iran International channel and the Jaysh al-Adl organisation is a red line. These issues were reportedly discussed during a meeting between Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammad Hossein Bagheri and Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman al Saud.
Saudi-Iranian normalisation in the context of contribution to the Palestinian struggle
The will between Saudi Arabia and Iran has brought about a détente across the region due to their broad spheres of influence. The conflict in Yemen has slowed down, and the search for a political solution has gained momentum. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has returned to the ‘family’ as the legitimate representative of his country, speaking at the Arab League summit after 12 years.
The meeting of the parties was once thought impossible. It made a modest contribution to the Palestinian struggle. On 7 October, after the start of the Israeli massacres, the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Iran had a 45-minute private telephone conversation about Palestine. They emphasized the need for the Islamic world to stand united. After their conversation, Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi travelled to Riyadh on 11 November to attend the Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Summit on Palestine. While at the summit, Reisi met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman to discuss regional cooperation and their joint contribution to the Palestinian cause.
The meeting between Reisi and Salman at the leaders’ level resulted in Saudi Arabia making the normalization process with Israel conditional on a two-state solution. The Riyadh administration now stipulates the establishment of a Palestinian state as a precondition for diplomatic relations with Israel. US efforts to bring Saudi Arabia to the table on the grounds of the ‘Iranian threat’ failed. The Saudi refusal to participate in the US- and UK-led anti-Houthi operations should also be considered in this context.
Additionally, it would not be surprising if the Iranian-Saudi peace agreement leads to further détente across the region. During the inter-session breaks of the summit on Palestine, there were contacts between Iran, Sudan and Egypt. Reisi and the head of the Sudanese Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah al-Bukhran, expressed their readiness to reopen embassies. It was announced that the two countries would assign relevant ministers for normalization after the meeting with Egyptian leader Sisi.
Winners at the global level
While the biggest winner of the normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which has been dubbed as the New Cold War of the Middle East, has been all regional states except Israel, at the global level, it has been China, which wants to turn the economic superiority it has gained for a while into diplomacy. With the agreement, the Global Security Initiative put forward by Chinese leader Xi proved its worth on the Saudi-Iranian line, and Beijing came one step closer to its claim of being the “responsible power of international relations”. In short, China responded to its adversaries who wanted to encircle it in Asia by waving from the Middle East.
Furthermore, China’s inclusion of the oil-rich countries of the region, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, into BRICS, of which China itself is the pillar, has been recorded as a rising moment in the multipolar world. Thanks to BRICS, which has surpassed the G7 in terms of purchasing parity and is working on alternative payment systems against the dollar hegemony, the countries of the region do not have to put their eggs in one outdated basket, nor do they have to be trapped in eternal enmity or destructive competition.
