Saudi Arabia secures control of eastern Yemen as UAE-backed forces withdraw

Saudi Arabia has secured control over eastern Yemen, as forces backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) withdraw from the region. The UAE has lost its first indirect battle against Saudi Arabia in eastern Yemen since the conflict began.

For the first time since its establishment in 2017, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is loyal to Abu Dhabi, has lost its military influence in the provinces of Hadramawt and al-Mahrah.

Council forces were forced to withdraw from all headquarters they controlled in the two provinces due to ground pressure from the Nation’s Shield forces, which are loyal to Riyadh, supported by Saudi warplanes.

Nation’s Shield forces secure control in Mukalla and Seiyun

The clashes, which began last Friday, ended yesterday evening after Nation’s Shield forces established control over Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt province.

This development occurred one day after the fall of the First Military Region in Seiyun, the center of Wadi Hadramawt.

The fall of Mukalla followed the reclamation of the oil plateau in the Ghayl Bin Yamin district by local tribes. STC forces abandoned the region following heavy clashes that took place before the Nation’s Shield units reached the area.

Southern Transitional Council accepts defeat

The STC, which had attempted a forward move on Friday evening by declaring a “State of South Arabia” with a two-year transition period, has accepted defeat.

The Council bowed to the demand to participate in a “South-South” political dialogue under the auspices of Saudi Arabia.

In a statement published on the Council’s official website, it said: “We welcome the invitation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to sponsor the southern dialogue. This invitation is a practical translation of the approach adopted by the Council since its inception. Dialogue is the only reasonable way to address political issues, foremost among them the cause of the people of the south and their right to reclaim their state.”

Heavy toll in airstrikes: At least 80 dead

Observers characterize this statement as a retreat made under military pressure in Hadramawt and al-Mahrah. While dozens of dead and wounded were reported within the ranks of the STC, Council forces were seen fleeing from various cities in Hadramawt.

Speaking to AFP, a source from the Council reported that the airstrikes led to “the death of at least 80 elements from the Council forces and the wounding of 152 soldiers.” While the fate of hundreds of STC members remains uncertain, reports indicate that approximately 130 people were taken prisoner by the Nation’s Shield forces.

Riyadh-aligned forces take to the streets

Hours after the Riyadh-aligned Hadramawt provincial administration announced it had secured Seiyun, pro-Saudi groups completed their deployment in the city of Mukalla yesterday afternoon.

Local sources speaking to the Al-Akhbar newspaper stated that after securing control of Rayyan Airport and the Dhabba Oil Port, these groups spread through the city streets without direct clashes.

According to the sources, the Hadramout Elite (en-Nuhbe el-Hadramiyye), which served as the STC’s military wing on the Hadramawt coast, completely withdrew from Mukalla.

Many military camps loyal to the UAE surrendered by withdrawing their support for the Council after receiving assurances from Saudi Arabia that personnel would not be harmed and would be integrated into the Nation’s Shield forces.

Supply lines cut: Forces in al-Mahrah under siege

Although STC forces maintain a presence in al-Mahrah province despite withdrawing from the city of al-Ghaydah and rejecting calls for a safe withdrawal from vital institutions like Nishtun Port, the fall of Mukalla and Shihr has placed these forces in a difficult position.

Due to the cutting of military supply lines, these units face the risk of being taken prisoner unless an agreement is reached to provide a safe exit to Shabwah province.

Saudi Arabia’s eastern strategy and new influence sharing

Recent developments have once again brought the project for autonomous administration in Hadramawt—a province that constitutes half of Yemen’s land area—to the agenda.

Political sources informing Al-Akhbar stated that Saudi Arabia is moving to complete the process of reclaiming the eastern region, covering Shabwah, Hadramawt, and al-Mahrah, from UAE-aligned forces. It is reported that the Riyadh administration is also making moves to seize the oil-rich Shabwah province, which is currently under STC control.

The Governor of Hadramawt, Salim al-Hanbashi, returned from Saudi Arabia to the city of Seiyun yesterday to manage the province for the first time in ten years.

A new scenario of four-region division

Sources noted that calls have been made to the Governor of Shabwah, Awadh al-Wazir, a leader in the UAE-aligned General People’s Congress party, to hand over the province.

It is reported that Riyadh is making military preparations in the nearby al-Abr region to establish control in the coming days.

If the clashes in the eastern provinces cease, it is predicted that Saudi Arabia will settle for control in this region, while the southern provinces (Abyan, Aden, Lahij, and Dhale) will remain under STC control.

Observers view this situation as a new sharing of influence in which the Kingdom aims to divide Yemen into four regions: two in the south and two in the north.