Shia bloc nominates Nouri al-Maliki for Iraqi premiership as Washington issues stern warning

Iraq’s political landscape is undergoing a significant realignment as the country’s largest political coalition, the Shia Coordination Framework, has officially nominated Nouri al-Maliki as the candidate for prime minister.

The move follows the decision of the incumbent Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, to step down. The momentum has now shifted toward Maliki, who previously served two terms as premier between 2006 and 2014. Meanwhile, the US administration has dispatched clear signals to Baghdad, warning against the formation of a government aligned with Iran’s strategic axis.

The Coordination Framework, an umbrella group for various Shia parties, announced on January 24 that the decision was reached by a majority vote. In its statement, the bloc cited Maliki’s “political and administrative experience” and his previous “role in state management” as the primary reasons for his selection.

Emphasizing its commitment to the constitutional process, the bloc defined its objective as “forming a strong and effective government, in cooperation with all national forces, capable of addressing challenges, providing services, and preserving the security and unity of Iraq.”

Washington’s ‘Iran’ warning to Baghdad: Rubio intervenes

Maliki’s return to the center of the political stage has sparked immediate concern in Washington. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a telephone conversation with outgoing Prime Minister Sudani, underscored that any new government must ensure Iraq remains an “element of stability and security in the Middle East.”

During the call, Rubio emphasized that “a government controlled by Iran cannot prioritize Iraq’s own interests, keep Iraq out of regional conflicts, or advance the US-Iraq partnership.”

Beyond diplomatic warnings, the prospect of economic sanctions has also been raised. US officials indicated last week that if “resistance” groups and parties linked to the Hashd al-Shaabi are included in the new cabinet, Iraq’s access to its oil revenues—currently held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York—could be restricted.

Parliamentary arithmetic and alliance dynamics

The Dawa Party, led by Maliki, is managed by a cadre that returned from exile in Iran following the fall of Saddam Hussein. The party forms the backbone of the State of Law Coalition, which secured 29 seats in the 329-member parliament during the November elections, placing it third.

According to the election results, the Reconstruction and Development Alliance, led by current Prime Minister Sudani, finished first with 46 seats. The Sunni Taqadum Party, led by Mohammed al-Halbousi, came in second with 27 seats, while Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) ranked fourth with 26 seats.

Sudani, who announced earlier this month that he would vacate his post, has stated he will support Maliki’s bid for the premiership. Maliki’s coalition includes parties representing Iraq’s “resistance” factions and entities affiliated with the Hashd al-Shaabi, a paramilitary force established in 2014 to combat ISIS that maintains close ties to Tehran.

The 2014 fracture and allegations on the Washington-Erbil axis

Maliki first assumed the premiership in 2006 with the backing of the then-US Ambassador to Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad.

In 2008, he launched a comprehensive military operation in Basra against the Mahdi Army, led by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. However, in 2014, as he prepared for a third term, Maliki was forced to step down under pressure from US President Barack Obama and Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani.

That pressure reportedly intensified due to Maliki’s opposition to independent Kurdish oil exports and his deepening relationship with Tehran.

The report highlights striking details regarding the period when Iraq was under the threat of ISIS. It claims that ISIS captured vast territories with the “covert support” of the US and the Kurds, leading to the fall of cities such as Ramadi and Fallujah in Anbar, and Mosul in Nineveh.

It is noted that even as the terrorist organization reached the gates of Baghdad, the Obama administration rejected Maliki’s request for airstrikes, conditioning military aid for the capital’s defense on Maliki’s resignation.

While US officials and Barzani blamed Maliki for the fall of Mosul, alleging he ordered the army to retreat, the report provides a different account. It states that ISIS occupied Mosul using weaponry supplied by the US military, while Iraqi army units led by Kurdish commanders refused to engage in the battle.

The report further alleges that rather than defending Mosul, Peshmerga forces loyal to Barzani retreated and seized the weaponry left behind by the Iraqi army. Taking advantage of the ensuing chaos, they moved to occupy the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and began exporting oil to Israel via the pipeline reaching Türkiye’s Port of Ceyhan.