South Korean election could reshape US ties and regional policy

Early voting has begun for the South Korean presidential election. Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is predicted to win the snap presidential election scheduled for June 3. This outcome could lead to a new direction in the policies of a key US ally, spanning from China to North Korea.

Conservative former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was removed from office in December following a brief martial law decree, had worked diligently to support Washington, maintain a tough stance against North Korea, repair relations with Japan, and coordinate actions with the US. Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has long approached the US alliance with greater skepticism, promising to improve relations with North Korea and harshly criticizing Yoon’s rapprochement with Japan. During his campaign, Lee emphasized that South Korea should stay out of any China-Taiwan conflict and pledged to mend ties with China. However, following subsequent discussions, he began to praise the US alliance and stated he would continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the US, which Washington deems vital for countering China and North Korea.

Wi Sung-lac, a lawmaker advising Lee on foreign policy, told Reuters, “The Yoon administration advocated for democratic values in foreign policy while pursuing authoritarian tactics in domestic policy,” adding: “In contrast, if the Democratic Party wins, the new government will be prepared to genuinely defend democracy and pursue a foreign policy based on these values, proven by the long history of the struggle for democratic rights in Korea.”

According to Reuters, some in Washington wonder whether Lee’s changes on a range of issues will be permanent and whether his views might clash with the US. Trump imposed tariffs on South Korea, demanded it cover more of the costs for the 28,500 troops stationed in the country, and increased competition with China.

Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said, “There are significant doubts whether Lee will genuinely deviate from his previous stance of reconciliation with China and North Korea, nationalist antagonism towards Japan, and greater independence in the alliance with the US.”

Darcie Draudt-Vejares from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote in a report that while this transformation increases Lee’s appeal, “it also raises concerns about future policy and governance consistency.”

Much has changed in the three years since South Korea’s last liberal president, Moon Jae-in, left office. His tenure involved managing trade and political conflicts with Tokyo over historical disputes related to Japan’s 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula, and his attempts to secure lasting diplomatic agreements between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The impeached conservative Yoon reversed this entire process, aligning South Korea’s defense and foreign policy with US preferences.

On the other hand, a Western diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous, told Reuters that Lee is unlikely to revert to his previous stance due to China’s assertive posture, doubts about US commitments, and North Korea’s new cooperation with Russia.

Lee has pledged to cooperate with Japan in security, technology, culture, and environmental fields, but criticized Yoon for conceding too much while receiving little in return.

Yoon and the conservatives raised the possibility of redeploying American nuclear weapons to the peninsula to counter North Korea, or even developing their own arsenal. However, Lee has rejected these calls.

In an interview with TIME magazine published on Thursday, Lee praised Trump’s “extraordinary skills” in negotiation. He also compared himself to the American president, saying both survived assassination attempts and sought to protect their countries’ interests.

Lee stated on a discussion program on Tuesday, “I believe the South Korea-US alliance is the foundation of South Korean diplomacy.” Nevertheless, he listed US protectionism as a challenge and said he would not “unnecessarily” antagonize China and Russia.

North Korea is one area where Lee might find common ground with Trump. This could also be one of the most challenging issues to address.

Lee has said he will reopen hotlines with North Korea and attempt to establish dialogue with Pyongyang to reduce tensions. Lee could cooperate on this matter with Trump, who has emphasized his desire to handle relations with Kim Jong Un.

On the other hand, Lee, who accuses the conservative Yoon administration of bringing relations with China to their worst point in South Korean history, might adopt a more cautious and balanced approach to ties with Beijing, not succumbing to US demands.

Following Yoon’s impeachment after the failed martial law attempt, the South Korean presidential election will be held on June 3.