Takaichi wins warm words from Trump on China but no firm guarantees

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi drew attention for her rapport with US President Donald Trump during her first visit to Washington as Japan’s leader, but analysts say it remains unclear whether she secured firm commitments on China.

Takaichi entered the meeting with a clear objective: to dissuade Trump from striking a deal with Beijing that could leave Tokyo strategically exposed. Japanese officials had hoped to use the run-up to a planned Trump-Xi Jinping summit as leverage, but those expectations were disrupted by two developments: the outbreak of war with Iran on Feb. 28 and the abrupt postponement of Trump’s anticipated meeting with the Chinese leader later this month.

The Takaichi administration had seen the now-delayed Trump-Xi talks as a window to influence Washington’s position in advance. The prime minister aimed to press Trump on the importance of the US-Japan alliance and the need to counter what Tokyo describes as China’s “coercive measures.”

At the outset of his meeting with Takaichi, Trump described Japan-China relations as “tense” and said, “When I meet President Xi in China, I will speak positively about Japan.”

Ryo Sahashi, a professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo, described Trump’s remark as a “moderately positive signal,” while cautioning against overstating its significance. Any supportive language toward Japan in a future Trump-Xi meeting, he suggested, would remain limited in practical impact.

Not a strategic partner, but a variable in negotiations

Japan currently appears to occupy a relatively privileged position among US allies, particularly when contrasted with Trump’s criticism of NATO partners before, during, and after his meeting with Takaichi.

“This is not only due to Takaichi’s personal diplomacy but also reflects Trump’s long-standing and somewhat distinct perception of Japan. Tokyo has learned how to read and effectively leverage this perception,” Sahashi said. While this may not resolve tensions between China and Japan directly, he added, it could “offer Tokyo a diplomatic advantage as US-China relations evolve.”

Some analysts interpret Trump’s remarks as providing short-term reassurance that Japan’s position will not be ignored in US-China dealings. Others take a more skeptical view.

Misato Matsuoka, an associate professor specializing in US-Japan relations at Teikyo University, said the praise could function as a negotiating tool within a broader US-China bargaining framework. “By highlighting Japan’s cooperation, Trump is indirectly pressuring China to present its own concessions,” she said.

Under this interpretation, Japan is viewed “less as an autonomous strategic partner and more as a variable within a wider negotiation process.”

Taiwan emerges as a focal point

Taiwan became one of the most sensitive issues in the aftermath of the meeting, as differences emerged between Japanese and US accounts of the discussions.

A White House readout stated that “the two leaders affirmed that maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is an indispensable element of regional security and global prosperity,” adding that they supported the peaceful resolution of cross-strait issues and opposed unilateral attempts to change the status quo, including through force or coercion.

Although China was not mentioned explicitly, the statement added that the US and Japan would coordinate in third countries to address challenges posed by “strategic competitors” — a phrase widely understood as referring to China and to multilateral initiatives involving partners such as the Philippines and Australia.

By contrast, Japan’s Foreign Ministry statement made no reference to Taiwan. It said only that the two leaders “exchanged views on China-related issues and confirmed close cooperation between Japan and the United States,” while also noting coordination with “like-minded countries.”

Asked about the discrepancy at a regular press briefing on Monday, Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara declined to comment on diplomatic exchanges. He stressed that the readout had been issued “solely by the US side” and reiterated that both leaders confirmed their commitment to close cooperation on China-related matters.

Japan’s relations with China have deteriorated sharply since Takaichi told parliament on Nov. 7 that Japan would defend Taiwan against China and could become militarily involved. Beijing responded forcefully, imposing economic pressure measures and restrictions on Japan.

US officials have expressed concern over the dispute, but Trump has avoided offering explicit backing to Takaichi, wary that doing so could complicate his plans for a broader trade agreement with Xi.