Elijah J. Magnier, a Brussels-based veteran war correspondent and political analyst who has worked in many countries in the Middle East for many years, spoke to Harici. “It is impossible to eliminate Hamas,” Magnier told Harici, adding that Israel will not achieve its stated goals in Gaza. Magnier also emphasized that Hezbollah would retaliate after Aruri’s assassination.
Magnier is a veteran war correspondent and political analyst with more than 35 years of experience in the Middle East and North Africa, having lived in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and Syria. Specializing in Middle East politics, strategic planning and non-state actors, Magnier has an extensive knowledge of political networks in the region.
Elijah studied Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism at St. Andrews University and London University, holds a Masters Degree in Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism and a PhD in policing and political science from John Moores Liverpool University, UK.
He has covered many major wars and military conflicts in the region, including the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, the Iraq-Iran War, the Lebanese Civil War, the 1991 Gulf War, the 1992-1996 war in the former Yugoslavia, the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and the subsequent war and occupation, the second Lebanon War in 2006, and the recent wars in Libya and Syria.
We talk with Elijah J. Magnier about the implications of the killing of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in an Israeli drone strike in Beirut, Lebanon, and the future of Gaza.
‘Eliminating Hamas is an impossible task’
The first question is, do Israel goals in Gaza match the reality on the ground? I mean, do you believe that Israel can achieve its goal of completely eliminating Hamas?
Eliminating Hamas is an impossible task. The former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barack said that Hamas is an ideology, therefore it is impossible to be defeated. These were his own words. Therefore, many Israeli officials in power today or still outside the power but are influential in Israel, understands that it is impossible to defeat Hamas because Hamas is a resistance group. In the history, in the world history never resistance group has been defeated by an occupation force. It takes time. It may take one or two or three or five generations. But as long as the people of the land, the owners of the land, continue fighting and opt for an armed fight, it means that there is no solution but for them to reach either a compromise or to recover the territory. Know the objective that Israel announced is impossible to achieve.
‘Hezbollah will retaliate very soon’
Israel announced at the beginning of the war that it would target Hamas leaders abroad. And yesterday, Israel killed Arouri, a senior Hamas official. Considering especially Hezbollah’s efforts not to escalate the war, how can it respond to Israel now?
This is a folkloric tactical victory because every single non state actor, organization like Hamas, Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen… All these groups have horizontal leadership. It is not vertical when the head of the pyramid is killed then the whole pyramid is in crisis. No, it is horizontal when one leader is killed, another one or maybe 10 can replace him. Or even if Israel manages to kill 10 other leaders within Hamas, by the way they killed Arouri and another two leaders of Al Qassam and who were on the target list of Israel at the same time. But that is not going to alter the capability of Hamas. And with the proof is that Saleh al-Arouri was in Lebanon and he was not guiding the battle. Those who are guiding the battle are in Gaza and the assassination of Arouri is not going to change anything in the battlefield against the Israeli occupation forces in Gaza.
Also, the Israelis have killed in assassinated so many Palestinian leaders in the past that nothing has changed. On the contrary, the Palestinian leadership increased in its strengths and its objective to fight Israel.
Now how Hezbollah is going to react, that’s something completely different because the attack was inside Beirut, in the suburb of Beirut. That is a clear attempt to break the rules of engagement and to attack Hezbollah and the Lebanese in the place where they live. They have killed also three Lebanese in this attack. So Hezbollah has to retaliate and will retaliate very soon because failure of retaliating will encourage the Israeli to carry out more attacks.
‘The assassination will not affect Hamas’
Could you be a little more specific? How will Arouri’s assassination affect Hamas?
It will not affect Hamas at all because the Arouri was not guiding the battle and there are many people who can replace him. Because Hamas is an ideology is made of many leaders, many people look at how they have killed Sheikh Ahmed Yasin, the founder of Hamas in the past and nothing has changed. They killed the Rantisi and nothing has changed. They killed Mabhouh in Dubai and Hamas continued develop itself and managed to lead the Palestinian resistance to the 7th of October. So being having one of the leaders assassinated or as I said another 10 leaders, it will change nothing in the equation.
‘Because of his failure, Netanyahu is running away from his objectives, going towards Lebanon’
Is the assassination of Arouri is a sign of victory for Netanyahu or does it have a strategic significance? Do you expect these assassinations to continue?
Well, this is the policy of Israel to violate international law and go and attack in any sovereign country thinking that it can get away with it because it has the support of the Americans and the international community. This is why Israel is always getting away with it without impunity, because it has discover. However, this is again a tactical victory, because Benjamin Netanyahu is in deep trouble.
He has not achieved any of the two main declared objectives to defeat Hamas and free all the prisoners. And he is under pressure from the government and the coalition by the two ministers of security, Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance Bezalel Smotrich, who threatened him to resign if he stops the war on Gaza. Now continuing the war on Gaza is increasing the casualties. INS published more than 10,500 Israeli soldiers wounded in this battle, of which many hundreds that are severely wounded and others really totally crippled. So the level of casualty is so high that is unjustified in the light of the failure to achieve any objective. This is why Netanyahu is running away from his objectives, going toward Lebanon and perhaps thinking that this would enlarge the war, bring other actors like the United States to calm down everybody and find a solution, even for him in Israel, and say, OK, it’s enough, you all stop now. He will look like he’s not the one who stopped the war, but all the Israeli, the Americans who are imposing on him to stop the war. This is his hope.
‘There is no post war Gaza, because Israel hasn’t achieved anything’
I would like to ask you about the future scenarios in Gaza. We know Israel objects the US plan, but even Israel does not have an agreement on plan yet. How do you think stable governance can be achieved in let’s say in post war Gaza?
There is no post war Gaza, because Israel hasn’t achieved anything to dictate the law in Gaza and what’s going to happen next. On the contrary, we have seen the Israeli army declaring that it has occupied and controlled the north. And then the next day the Israeli are bombing Jabalia, Beit Hanoun, Cuhr ed-Dik or all the area in the north. So they really not in control. And then we see the Israel is saying we broke into this area, Khan Younis or other area or Tuffah. And then the next day they pull out because they can’t stay. So if you can’t stay in the place and you are harassed by the resistance all the time, you can’t say this is my plan for after the war and you haven’t finished the job and you know you will not be able to finish the job. So all this bravado is, really has no sense of reality in it.
‘If Israel loses the war, regional countries will turn their backs on it’
A question about the region and about the, let’s say, geopolitics. The the normalization process with Israel and the Gulf countries, especially the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia continue despite the war in Gaza. And these countries are also developing relations with especially China and of course also Russia, and now Saudi Arabia and UAE recently becoming an official member of BRICS. What do you think? How related is the ongoing war in Gaza to this global shift?
It is unrelated because Russia was one of the first countries to recognize the state of Israel in 1948. Moreover, China has always maintained good relationship with Israel, and the Arab states recently have increased the relationship with Israel. They also declared the normalisations and other did not declare normalisation but still continue to receive Israeli ministers like Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, these countries do not have borders with Israel and other countries like Saudi Arabia consider Hamas as a terrorist organization. And Saudi Arabia has imprisoned and still hold in its presence more than 63 members of Hamas.
Therefore, for them it is really not an issue to see Israel bombarding Gaza and the result of this bombardment is killing 21 to 22,000, mainly civilians, and wounding 55 to 65,000 so far and so many other thousand under the rebels. For them, this is not an issue. This is not going to change the course of the relationship unless Israel come out defeated and this is what the Israeli Defense Minister Yaov Gallant said yesterday when he said we have no longer a place in the Middle East if we do not win this war. It means if Israel comes out defeated, this will set an example for the future generation that Israel can be defeated. There is no point in having a good relationship with Israel when it is weak. The invincible army showed that is invincible and it’s weak and has been defeated on the 7th of October surprised with all the technology and the intelligence that it brags about and the support of all the Western intelligence supporting the Israelis all the time. So all these indication lead to a conclusion that at the end of the day what is the benefit of having good relationship with Israel?
‘Donald Trump may bring with him more potentiality of aggression towards Iran’
Last question is about the US elections, because it is also an important aspect this year.
What do you think? How will the US elections at the end of this year and maybe Donald Trump’s possible victory, changed the balance in the Middle East, particularly US, Iran relations?
If Joe Biden remains in power, Joe Biden presented himself as a non-aggressive president. However, he has changed nothing of what Donald Trump has said before he leaves office. So he kept the presence of the US forces in Syria, his support to the Kurds in northern Syria, he continues to steal the oil there. He kept the presence in Iraq, and he unconditionally supported Israel.
Exactly what Donald Trump did, with one difference, that Donald Trump’s approach toward Russia is different. Trump doesn’t want the war with Russia and Joe Biden has failed with his war against Russia in Ukraine. Therefore, to stand down on Ukraine is not going to change a lot and the policy of the next president because the Ukrainian capability has been depleted.
Now in relation to the Middle East, there was a difference between Biden’s approach to Saudi Arabia and Donald Trump has a different approach. However, the support of Israel is always unconditional. On the contrary, Donald Trump may bring with him more potentiality of aggression towards Iran more than Joe Biden.
