Germany’s long-swinging SPD-Greens-FDP coalition government (“traffic light”) has collapsed. The collapse seems to have started when the FDP raised the flag to its coalition partners over the budget and the constitutional debt brake. But the German economy’s problems, which began before the Ukraine war and the anti-Russian sanctions, combined with high inflation, energy costs and a declining export market in China, have once again led to Europe’s largest economy being labeled a “sick man”.
Arnold Schölzel, a member of the editorial board of Junge Welt, Germany’s daily left-wing newspaper, argues that Germany’s growth, the war in Ukraine and the simultaneous financing of social expenditures have come to an end and that the FDP’s demand for sharp social cuts is in fact the program of the next federal government.
Schölzel points out that the CDU/CSU, which seems to be opposed to loosening the constitutional debt brake, is preparing to back down in a new government. Schölzel believes that there are still nuances between the parties and that this will be one of the issues of the upcoming election campaign.
Noting that German capital has interests in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, the journalist reminds that Eastern Europe in particular is a “reserve of cheap labor” for German industry and underlines that capital supports pro-war policies. Therefore, it is highly likely that the German economy will go along with the militarization of society from now on.
Schölzel sees the Alternative for Germany (AfD) as a “continuation of the CDU/CSU” and believes that the interests of German capital lie in a CDU-SPD coalition.
‘FDP ANNOUNCES PROGRAM FOR THE NEXT GOVERNMENT’
As it turns out, the collapse of the traffic light coalition in Germany was in fact long overdue. An economic crisis “invented” by the Ukraine war and anti-Russian sanctions, and defeats in this year’s European Parliament and East German state elections, had shown that the government’s time had come. Does the collapse lie simply in the difference in economic programs between the FDP and the SPD-Greens? How far do the parliamentary parties differ in their proposed solutions to the economic and political crisis in Germany?
This government was a wartime government from the start. It entered the USA’s proxy war in Ukraine with considerable financial resources and waged an economic war against Russia – with devastating consequences not for Russia, but for German industry. She accepted the blowing up of the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline, presumably by the US-government. As a result, the German economy has been in recession for two years and is at the bottom of the list in terms of growth among the industrialized countries. This pushed the state budget to its limits. The simultaneous financing of growth impulses, war and social benefits is no longer possible. The FDP wanted sharp social cuts. In doing so, it announces the policies of the next federal government.
‘EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES A RESERVE OF CHEAP LABOR FOR GERMAN INDUSTRY’
The reactions to Chancellor Scholz and his government from the German business community are also striking. All the spokespeople of capital, especially the industrialists, align themselves with the CDU/CSU and demand immediate elections, citing the return of Donald Trump and the Ukrainian War as justification. But when it comes to the debate on the constitutional debt brake, there seems to be no unity. Is the debt brake really that important? Is it possible to support Ukraine, fight against Trump’s potential tariffs and at the same time reduce the German national debt?
The German capital was and is in agreement with Scholz’s war course. It has sharply reduced economic ties with Russia and also supports a hostile policy towards China, albeit more cautiously. Both industry and the CDU/CSU have now declared their willingness to reform the debt brake. They demand subsidies for industry and arms deliveries to Ukraine. The German economy has long-term interests there – as in all of Eastern Europe. The Eastern European countries serve as a workbench for German industry and as a reservoir for cheap labor. German industry sees it as Germany’s backyard. There are still differences on the question of how deep the social cuts should be. This will probably be the focus of the election campaign.
Does the German state see the economic restructuring program and the militarization of the state, the economy and society as one and the same? The new conscription law, the debate on conscription and the modernization of the Bundeswehr seem to be propagandized as a way out of the crisis. Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces Eva Högl said last summer that young people learn “structure, comradeship, a sense of duty” in the Bundeswehr, “all qualities from which the economy also benefits”. Are we facing a plan to militarize the economy?
Yes, those in power are concerned with the militarization of society as a whole. They say this quite openly: The Bundeswehr should advertise in schools – there is a new law for this in Bavaria. The healthcare system is gearing up to treat large numbers of injured people. The German War Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) summarized this in the term “war capability”. It would have to be produced in four to five years because Russia would then probably attack NATO. Overall, it is a reactionary-militaristic restructuring of the state in which, above all, civil rights are restricted.
‘FASCISM IN GERMANY WAS REHABILITATED BY THE UKRAINE WAR’
When it comes to the Israeli aggression in Gaza, the AfD and the Greens support the same parliamentary bill. Similarly, when it comes to the “fight against irregular migration”, the CDU/CSU almost matches the AfD. Although all parties refuse to cooperate with the AfD, is it possible to say that AfD policies have already become “mainstream” in German politics? In any case, the AfD is likely to play a role in Germany’s future.
The AfD is a continuation of the politics of the CDU/CSU. The difference: It allows open fascists in the party. The CDU and CSU have been fighting racist incitement against migrants and asylum seekers for 40 years. The AfD has taken this over and expanded it: it has increased racism and consciously encourages violence. The AfD has always been on Israel’s side because of the oppression and murder of Muslims. This has increased further with the current genocide in Gaza. The Greens are the most bellicose German party today. They use racist clichés against Russia in the Ukraine war and completely agree with the racist position of the Netanyahu government. The Greens denounce any criticism of Israel’s policies as anti-Semitism and are successful in doing so. Because of the fascists in the AfD, there are still reservations among other parties at the federal level about working with the AfD. Things are different at the state level; cooperation works in the municipalities. Since fascism there was rehabilitated in Germany, particularly with the war in Ukraine, it may well be that the AfD will also be accepted at the federal level in a few years. As long as it still pretends to strive for peace with Russia, this is unlikely.
‘CONDITIONS ARE BEING CREATED FOR GREATER INDEPENDENCE FOR GERMAN IMPERIALISM’
It can also be linked to the question above: The cry for a “strong and decisive government” has an important place among the voices rising from within the ruling class. The polls indicate that the CDU/CSU would be the winning party in a possible federal snap election. Can the CDU/CSU alone meet this demand for a “strong and stable government”? Will German politics be forced to turn to “non-political” actors or institutions?
The date of the next federal election was negotiated between the CDU/CSU and SPD. This is symptomatic: they communicate despite all the rhetoric. As things currently stand, only a coalition of both parties can form the next government. In my opinion, this also corresponds to the current interests of the German capital. The ruling class is not yet committed to an authoritarian regime domestically, but is preparing the conditions for it. In terms of foreign policy, it cannot yet break away from the USA, but is striving for a stronger leadership role in the EU and perhaps in NATO. This also creates the conditions for greater independence for German imperialism in the future.
