In the ever-evolving landscape of domestic and foreign policies in the Arab region, a notable shift has taken place. Traditional Arab powerhouses like Iraq, Syria, and Egypt have ceded their influence, making way for the emergence of new Gulf-centric leaders in the form of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar. As Baghdad, Damascus, and Cairo grapple with instability, chaos, and socio-economic challenges, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha have transformed into beacons of stability, security, and prosperity. These internal and external changes have reverberated regionally and globally, reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
In this transformative period, Saudi Arabia has risen as the fastest-growing nation globally in 2022, with other Gulf nations such as Kuwait and the UAE following suit. Consequently, Gulf-based Arab countries have assumed prominent roles as drivers of global economic growth. Together, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar boast a combined population of nearly 50 million and an economic output approaching $2 trillion. Their ascendancy is anchored in their vast energy reserves, pivotal trade hubs, and substantial investment portfolios. These countries, once perceived as Western pawns, have now become strategic partners for influential media outlets in the US, UK, and EU, owners of renowned football clubs, and hubs of academic excellence. Their forward-thinking domestic and foreign policies are now closely observed on the global stage.
From the Western hemisphere to the Far East, from the northernmost regions to the southern reaches of the globe, the Gulf-centric Arab world has become the focal point of international engagement. Within a remarkably short span, leaders from across the globe, spanning from the President of the United States to the Prime Minister of India, from the President of Brazil to the Prime Minister of Japan, and from Central Asian nations to ASEAN countries, have sought to enhance and deepen their ties with this formidable trio. By the day, the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi-Doha axis, grounded in Arab heritage, has expanded its sphere of influence across Africa, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. Recognizing the Gulf’s significant investment potential, countries worldwide have eagerly courted their favor. Western nations, cognizant of this potential, have persistently extended invitations to Mohammed bin Salman, Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, and Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, seeking investment and collaboration. These charismatic and innovative leaders, esteemed by their constituents, have elevated their nations to prominence, rendering Riyadh, Jeddah, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Doha epicenters of regional and global attraction.
Diverse nations and civilizations around the world are now racing to cultivate special relationships with the Gulf. The ascendant Gulf powers have not limited their cooperation to economic realms but have also delved into military, defense, and security collaborations. These three nations, previously reliant on Western weaponry and private military firms, have now diversified their objectives and practices. While Qatar hosts the Turkish military on its soil, it has also turned to Turkish security and defense industry products. Notably, robust ties have formed between Turkish and Qatari intelligence agencies. The United Arab Emirates has deepened its intelligence ties with Russia, and Turkish defense industry products have garnered significant favor in the UAE. The UAE and China are progressing toward establishing a joint military base, with plans for their inaugural joint air exercise on Chinese soil. Saudi Arabia, with Chinese support, has accelerated its efforts in ballistic missile development. Additionally, a groundbreaking UCAV (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle) agreement between Turkey and Saudi Arabia has exerted a strategic influence. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in establishing a UCAV manufacturing facility on its soil in collaboration with Turkey. Notably, reports have surfaced regarding Brazil’s intention to construct Saudi Arabia’s inaugural military explosives facility.
The trio of Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha is executing a strategy to weave a security network outside the Western paradigm, including the establishment of a joint naval coalition in the Gulf with China, alongside Iran and the United Arab Emirates. This strategic diversification, encompassing economic, political, and diplomatic dimensions, has engendered new Arab powers that prioritize an agenda divergent from that of the US, UK, and EU. It has become evident that Arab-Western relations do not possess a deeply entrenched history or the requisite conditions for tighter collaboration. In contrast, Arab-Chinese, Russian, Indian, Turkish, Latin American, Persian, Japanese, Korean, and other relations exhibit a solid foundation and promising future. Recent events, such as Western sanctions against Russia and Russians during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have underscored the need for Gulf nations to diversify their investments into non-Western regions.
The foreign policy choices of the ascending Gulf powers are under close scrutiny. The trio of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar holds the status of dialogue partners within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE joining the BRICS. Furthermore, the UAE has become a member of the New Development Bank, a Shanghai-based institution associated with BRICS. Notably, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, these nations refrained from participating in sanctions imposed by the US, UK, and EU, opting instead to enhance their diplomatic and economic ties with Russia. Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha have assumed central roles not only in reconciling regional disputes but also in fostering prosperity, security, and stability, exemplified by their pivotal role in Syria’s return to the Arab League and their overtures towards Iran and Israel. At the latest Arab League Summit, they successfully convened the leaders of Syria and Ukraine at the same table. Regional and global actors like China, Russia, India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey are now actively becoming new partners for the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi-Doha trio.
In addition to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, Tel Aviv now regards Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi, Brasilia, Tokyo, Seoul, and Ankara as principal regional and global powers. Consequently, the political, economic, security, technological, diplomatic, military, and cultural orientations of Gulf nations are shifting towards non-Western partnerships within a civilizational context.
In the multi-centered, multi-civilizational international democratic global system, the potential and capacity of the Arab civilization centered on Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha to assume a pivotal role in the future is burgeoning. The Gulf region serves as a non-Western civilization power hub characterized by both attraction and competition, with non-Western actors steadily ascending. Moreover, the Arab-centric Gulf world is transitioning into a power center rather than merely serving as a transitional bridge between East and West. Having established peace, stability, and prosperity, these three nations are now aspiring to realize the Arab dream.
