The fragile balance of silence between Israel and Hezbollah

Following the ceasefire, South Lebanese residents anxiously awaited the end of the agreement and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied Lebanese territories, eager to return to their homes. However, on Sunday morning, January 26th, Lebanese civilians attempting to return home after the ceasefire were targeted by Israeli gunfire. Israel subsequently announced it would not withdraw from the occupied areas and, with US backing, extended the ceasefire until February 18th.

Hezbollah’s support for Gaza

On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah initiated hostilities against Israel by launching guided rockets and artillery shells at positions within the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms. These attacks followed Hamas’s Operation Aqsa Flood against Israel the previous day, and the subsequent Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah declared it had opened a second front against Israel in support of Gaza. As a result of the mutual attacks, settlers in northern Israel and civilians in southern Lebanon were forced to evacuate their homes and seek safety elsewhere.

The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah concluded with a 60-day ceasefire agreement reached on November 27, 2024. This agreement stipulated the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters north of the Litani River and an Israeli withdrawal south of the Blue Line in southern Lebanon. However, Israel violated the ceasefire 1,454 times: 813 times by land, 634 times by air, and seven times by sea.

Israel was obligated to withdraw from Lebanon within a 60-day period to allow for the full deployment of the Lebanese army along the border, with the goal of disarming Hezbollah and removing the group and its weapons from the border region. This period expired on Sunday morning, January 26, 2025. Despite the deadline, Israeli forces remain deployed in the area. Tensions are running high after Israeli forces killed at least 24 civilians attempting to return to their homes and wounded 134 others, including 14 women and 12 children.

Some of the casualties were reported to be Hezbollah supporters. Sunday’s events served as a demonstration of defiance by the resistance, but they also conveyed a message that Hezbollah, while weakened by the previous year’s conflict, remains a significant force in the region. Despite the presence of Merkava tanks, civilians, including women and children, waved Hezbollah flags in a show of support.

The funeral of Hezbollah’s former Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated by Israel, was initially scheduled for February 16th. The extension of the ceasefire to February 18th will likely necessitate rescheduling Nasrallah’s funeral.

Lebanon’s stance

The Lebanese army attempted to dissuade the population from returning to southern Lebanon. The Israeli army has also unequivocally stated that it will not permit the return of residents to their villages.

The Israeli army claims that the Lebanese army has not fulfilled its mandate in southern Lebanon by failing to ensure Hezbollah’s disarmament and the dismantling of its military infrastructure. They also assert that the number of Lebanese troops in the area is insufficient, and that Hezbollah maintains a presence. However, these claims have not been substantiated by the US-led international committee monitoring the ceasefire.

For its part, the Lebanese army maintains that it is fully capable of deploying in the south. However, the ongoing presence of Israeli troops impedes the Lebanese army’s ability to establish an effective presence in these areas. This situation presents a significant challenge for Joseph Aoun, the country’s newly appointed president and former army chief of staff. Aoun has met with French President Emmanuel Macron, highlighting Israel’s violation of the agreement. France is one of the guarantors of this ceasefire agreement. However, the Lebanese state is generally weak and lacks the capacity to engage in a direct conflict with the Israeli army. Furthermore, Hezbollah was substantially weakened during the last war.

Popular protests have become more frequent in the region. Should Hezbollah resume hostilities, Israel is likely to respond with a large-scale aerial bombardment. Therefore, Lebanon is compelled to accept the continuation of the ceasefire.

Perspectives of the Israeli media, and the Trump administration

The Israeli media has expressed anger and disappointment, viewing the agreement with Lebanon as a failure and indicating weakness. Many believe that they were victorious in the conflict but that the ceasefire agreement is flawed due to the absence of a demilitarized or buffer zone. They argue that northern Israeli settlers are hesitant to return to their homes due to a perceived lack of safety, particularly when they can observe Lebanese civilians displaying Hezbollah flags.

The Trump administration supports Israel’s continued presence in the region. Prior to discussions with Lebanon, the White House announced that the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would be extended until February 18th, citing the continued threat posed by Hezbollah. Despite this, the determination of the Lebanese people to return to their homes remains unchanged.

It remains to be seen whether the occupation will conclude on February 18th, whether the ceasefire will be extended again, and the occupation will continue, or whether war will resume. It is likely that, with continued US backing, Israel will maintain its occupation of Lebanese territory, citing the unpreparedness of the Lebanese Army, while all parties prepare for the next confrontation.