The Gulf must rethink its own security, Prof. Abdullah Baabood insists

Editor’s note: Speaking at the East-West Forum held in Istanbul on September 26, Prof. Abdullah Baabood addressed the heavy toll that wars and destruction in the Middle East have inflicted on the peoples of the region. Noting that the attack on Iran has also imperiled the Gulf states under the American security umbrella, Baabood stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has adversely affected oil and natural gas trade, imports, and regional economies. Stating that relations with the US and the future of the American military presence in the region are now being questioned more than ever, Baabood stressed that regional states must shape their own security through a shared understanding rather than leaving it to the decisions of foreign capitals.

First of all, good afternoon, everyone. I hope you are still awake.

Thank you, Pascal. I also thank Tunç and Harici for their kind invitation.

Being the last speaker is always a great thing because you can recycle all the good ideas you have heard throughout the different panels. But I will spare you that and offer something quite different.

I had thought I would be talking about something else, but I have changed my mind because some of the topics I wanted to address have already been covered.

Let me offer some reflections from someone who comes from the region. Although it says I come from Waseda University, which is in Japan, and we both worked at the same university, where I still work, I am originally from Oman. That is why it says Muscat there.

When you look at the Middle East today, since the British withdrawal, or even before, what do you see? Conflict, destruction, and wars lasting for decades.

We ask ourselves how much longer this will continue. When we look around us, we see devastated states and people being killed almost every day.

Not only in Palestine, which is a separate issue and has already been discussed. Look at Lebanon, Syria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, and Iraq.

I was once speaking to a diplomat and said: “All of this is happening. Could this be a conspiracy theory? I don’t believe in conspiracies.”

He said: “If it is not a conspiracy, what is it? How can you explain all of this?”

I still cannot figure it out. Perhaps you can.

The few remaining countries in the region that were stable, secure under the American umbrella, as it were, and prosperous because of oil and gas were the Gulf states.

What happened? President Trump decided to attack a neighbouring country unlawfully, knowing full well that Iran would retaliate against the American presence in the region.

What does that mean? It means our countries in the region would be attacked by Iran, as would some of our infrastructure.

Not only that, but the Strait of Hormuz is now closed. It was open; now it is closed. All the Gulf states, with the possible exception of Oman, rely on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil and gas exports and their imports.

Their economies are now suffering. It has been six or seven months, and we do not know how much longer this will continue. The region is paying a very high price for someone else’s decision.

Someone in Tel Aviv and someone in Washington decided that they wanted to do this. We do not even understand the reason.

If it was the nuclear issue, that had already been settled a long time ago through the JCPOA. Iran has also always said that it would never enrich uranium to produce nuclear weapons or a bomb.

Even before the war, the Omani foreign minister was negotiating with the Iranians and the Americans, and the Iranians had agreed to almost everything President Trump wanted.

That prompted the Omani foreign minister to appear on television and say that he was surprised the decision to go to war had already been taken while negotiations were still underway.

From the region’s perspective, we look at this and think: You have devastated everything. The entire region around us is devastated, and now we are too. Yet we are your allies. We are under the United States’ umbrella.

We have given you all the support you needed. We ensured that you received oil and gas. We ensured that the global economy functioned well and received the energy it needed.

We invested the revenues from oil and gas in your economy, your technology, your know-how, and your weapons. This is how we are repaid.

I think many questions have now been raised about the future of the relationship with the United States, including the future of American bases and the American presence in the region.

I believe America has shot itself in the foot in this case, perhaps even more than that.

At the public level, there is considerable resentment. It is not only because of the unconditional support for Israel in Gaza, the massacres, and the genocide that people have witnessed, but also because of what is happening now.

Many questions will therefore be raised. I think this conflict will further accelerate the changes taking place globally.

Let me conclude with one point. I think the region must begin thinking outside the box and beyond reliance on American or other foreign security umbrellas.

It is time for the region to start thinking about its own security. Its security does not have to be decided in Washington, London, or anywhere else. It must be decided within the region, through collaboration among regional countries.

Many countries in the region can help support its security and stability. This does not mean saying goodbye to the Americans. They will remain allies. But we also need to diversify our relationships with China, Russia, India, and other powers.

Türkiye is, of course, playing a very important role here. So is Pakistan.

I think we need a regional mechanism that ensures security, stability, and economic development, while making us less dependent on foreign powers to secure our region.

Thank you very much.