The India-Pakistan war has not yet begun

Two days ago (on May 5th), India announced it would conduct a national-level Civil Defense Drill on May 7th, and as May 7th commenced, it began military action. Was this perhaps a time Pakistan didn’t expect? Is an India-Pakistan war imminent?

As the clock struck May 7th in India, around 01:00, Indian missiles were launched in succession “from Indian airspace,” landing in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. In other words, the anticipated attack took place.

India named the operation “Sindoor.” Sindoor traditionally holds significant meanings in Hindu belief and Indian culture, but to touch on it briefly here: It is actually the name of the vermillion powder applied by married Hindu women at their hair parting, symbolizing marital commitment and the husband’s duty to protect his wife. Thus, by naming the operation “Sindoor,” India is conveying the message of protecting its citizens and national honor. Let me reiterate that the April 22nd Pahalgam terrorist attack occurred in a tourist area and targeted civilians.

The Indian Army announced that the operation lasted approximately half an hour, taking place between 01:05 and 01:30 Indian time. The Indian Army’s initial statements, such as “We have launched Operation Sindoor in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir,” were significant: Emphasis was placed on targeting terror infrastructure, that no Pakistani military facilities were targeted, that 9 areas – specifically the terror infrastructure in those 9 areas – were targeted, and that their actions were carried out in a focused, measured, and non-escalatory manner. As someone who followed statements from Indian sources all night, I can confidently say that “India’s statements indicate it does not want war.” So, this is very clear: India does not want war. Perhaps this should have been stated first: An India-Pakistan war has not yet begun. This is not yet war. The events that took place overnight were limited airstrikes, which were already expected by both Pakistan and the entire world. Meanwhile, Pakistan also delivered a limited response during the night. Currently, India is busy briefing the United Nations and foreign ambassadors. It is endeavoring to legitimize the missiles launched overnight and to validate its justifications. So, what will happen now? Will this situation turn into a war? Frankly, it’s hard to predict this yet. But the first thing to note is that both sides will strive to avoid war, as nuclear deterrence is a factor for both.

So, what other options are on the table?

India’s 2019 Balakot retaliatory strike against Pakistan was immediately met with a response, and Pakistan shot down an Indian plane and took its pilot hostage. Therefore, it was clear India did not want to act hastily in terms of timing. In terms of nature and scale, it was trying to plan while also calculating the potential response. But frankly, it launched an attack earlier than even I expected. The Indian army, which had experienced the Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 22nd, began its military action 14 days later, as the clock ticked over into the 15th day. As we said, this was expected; meaning that even if the timing was a bit earlier than anticipated, the military action was not a surprise. Now, mutual airstrikes have occurred, but more importantly, this time India truly wants to inflict a greater punishment on Pakistan, but it wants to do so without triggering a nuclear war, i.e., without waging war. In other words, it wants to continue a controlled escalation somewhat. I don’t believe this confrontation will de-escalate quickly. And this is where “Cold Start” comes into play. Of course, how Pakistan will respond now, and how the international community will approach India, are also very important. But there is another option on the planning table; time will tell its implementation, of course, but it’s important to mention it now:

Cold start: India’s new offensive strategy against Pakistan

Cold Start, first and foremost, marks a departure from the fundamentally defensive military doctrines India has used since its independence in 1947. In India, the idea of Cold Start was fueled by “Operation Parakram,” which India conducted following the 2001 terrorist attacks on the Indian Parliament, believed to be backed by Pakistan. This operation revealed operational gaps in India’s offensive capabilities, especially the slowness of troop mobilization along the border. It took almost a month for Indian troops to reach the border, which gave Pakistan enough time to take countermeasures and for the United States to pressure the Indian government to back down.

Announced in 2004, this doctrine is a response to India’s perceived inability to use its conventional superiority to end Pakistan’s “proxy war” in Kashmir. It aims to enable the Indian Army to mobilize rapidly and conduct limited retaliatory strikes against its neighbor without crossing Pakistan’s nuclear threshold. We can call this a joint forces operation, operating in conjunction with the Indian Air Force. On this point, the Chief of the Indian Army Staff announced earlier this year that they were in the final stages of establishing Integrated Battle Groups. The doctrine also involves India’s conventional forces conducting pinning offensives (feint attacks) in a conflict situation to prevent a nuclear retaliation from Pakistan.

I can say that this doctrine is still in an experimental stage. At the same time, it’s possible to say that there is political pressure, and more importantly, intense public pressure, to use such a strategy in the current crisis. So, this time, India’s response could be more than just a surgical strike. Indian Prime Minister Modi’s statements about an “unimaginable punishment” also point to this. Let me also reiterate that Modi has given the Indian Armed Forces “full authority.” However, Cold Start, which aims to punish Pakistan with more than a pinpoint operation while keeping the conflict below the nuclear threshold, reveals India’s intention to avoid a full-scale “hot” war, both by its name and its nature.

This is an offensive strategy with surprise timing, rapid execution, limited scope, but a harsher scale. With this strategy, India is actually opening, or wants to open, an escape route for itself from the perceived inevitability of a nuclear conflict with Pakistan. However, the biggest challenge for Cold Start is considered to be the possibility of Pakistan using tactical nuclear weapons as a counter-strategy. Therefore, it carries the risk of provoking or escalating a crisis that could cross the nuclear threshold. Considering that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, the potential for the conflict to spiral out of control is high, the risk is great, and everything hangs by a thread. And how Pakistan will respond is very important. However, I still believe that both countries will do their utmost to avoid entering a hot war. The India-Pakistan war has not yet begun.