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The new Middle East policy of China at the Arab-Iran crossroad

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Both Xi Jinping’s third term as president and China’s second century began with the CCP’s 20th Congress. Xi Jinping launched his foreign policy agenda with lightning speed once the CCP Congress ended. He initially participated in summits in Asia, after which he welcomed the leaders of several nations, including Germany and the EU, in Beijing. Lastly, he visited Saudi Arabia a second time. Xi held two summits with Arab and Gulf countries during this tour.

During the three-day visit to Saudi Arabia, compensating for the pandemic’s loss, Chinese President Xi Jinping signed 35 agreements worth $50 billion, including the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. In particular, an increase in trade volume and collaboration in energy and military took center stage. During this trip, Xi Jinping attended two separate summits: the first was the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the second was the China-Arab States Summit, which was first hosted by 21 Arab nations. Xi delivered a keynote speech at the Summit titled “Carrying Forward the Spirit of China-Arab Friendship and Jointly Building a China-Arab Community with a Shared Future in the New Era.” In his speech, he touched upon current issues, starting with China’s historical ties with the Arab world, including China’s support for the Arab countries’ liberation wars. In brief, Xi invited the Arab world to forge a shared future and share a common destiny. Xi’s address demonstrated that a new Arab world is emerging, and Arab nations are eager to take their place in this world. China has once more expressed its support for the settlement of the Palestinian issue that is an independent and a UN member Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital within pre-1967 borders.

The history of China’s relations with the Arab world over the past 70 years was founded on an ideological perspective of the Cold War. The central conflict between China and the Soviet Union at this time was fought over control of the Third World. In the post-Cold War period, the Arab world and the Middle East began to have a more pragmatic meaning for China, and after the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc fell apart, the need for a reliable source of trade and energy replaced the ideological perspective. In other words, post-Cold War Chinese foreign policy is more pragmatic than revolutionary. Additionally, China views the Arab East as an economic market rather than a political buttress.

Due to the growing Iranian threat, mainly as a result of the Yemen War, Saudi Arabia has rapidly begun arming. In this context, it has purchased billions of dollars worth of weapons from the United States. However, the recent tensions with the US over the murder of Khashoggi and oil shortages have brought China to the fore as an alternative to the US for Saudi Arabia. It has been noted that a pattern of American presidents systematically humiliating the Riyadh government with Trump’s remarks, “Saudi king would not last without US support for two weeks,” and Biden’s calling Saudi Arabia pariah. These developments have brought Saudi Arabia closer to the Russian-Chinese Bloc, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization signed a dialogue partnership protocol with Saudi Arabia at the Samarkand summit this year.

According to prior agreements, Saudi Arabia is currently to purchase $4 billion worth of weaponry from China by 2022. In fact, the arms trade between China and Saudi Arabia dates back to 1985. China sold 50 medium-range DF-3 ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia in 1986. Nuclear warheads can also be installed on these rockets. Saudi Arabia received DF-21 missiles in 2007. After 2014 and 2017, Arabia kept purchasing unmanned aerial vehicles from China. American intelligence claims that China is assisting Saudi Arabia in developing ballistic missiles close to Riyadh. Meanwhile, last August, Saudi Arabia agreed to purchase Patriot air defense systems worth 3 billion dollars from the USA.

The United States tolerates Saudi Arabia buying weapons from China because of Iran. A powerful Saudi Arabia is a force in the Middle East that can thwart and counter Iran. The same cannot be true about China, though. China arms both Iran and Saudi Arabia. For China, both countries are markets and energy suppliers. While China’s arms sales to Iran are ironic for Saudi Arabia, China’s strategic ties with Israel, particularly in the field of defense, are ironic for Iran. That Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said, “If Iran gets an operational nuclear weapon, all bets are off to shore up our security,” hints at the possibility of the Gulf states acquiring nuclear weapons. It is also significant that this bold statement was made following Xi Jinping’s visit.

Iran’s reaction to the visit

Iran was the top priority on the agenda of the Gulf Cooperation Council summit with China. The first four articles of the 18-article joint statement are directly related to Iran. Including Iran’s nuclear program and its support for sectarian strife, many issues were discussed. However, the most significant issue is covered in the 12th article of the statement: “The leaders affirmed their support for all peaceful efforts, including the initiative and endeavours of the United Arab Emirates to reach a peaceful solution to the issue of the three islands; Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa, through bilateral negotiations in accordance with the rules of international law, and to resolve this issue in accordance with international legitimacy.”

Iran viewed the statement as arrogant and found unacceptable the backing of the Gulf Cooperation Council and China to the United Arab Emirates, which claimed rights on three strategic islands belonging to Iran in the Persian Gulf. Moreover, harshly criticizing the expression “through bilateral negotiations in accordance with the rules of international law, and to resolve this issue in accordance with international legitimacy,” Iran reacted to the call for negotiation on a matter pertaining to its non-negotiable sovereignty.

While Iran stressed that there were occasional conflicts over these three islands with the United Arab Emirates, China’s appearance to be taking a side in the conflict shocked the Tehran government. Mohammad Jamshidi, deputy director of political affairs at the office of the Iranian President, criticized China, tweeting: “Chinese colleagues should remember that when Saudi Arabia and America supported ISIS and Al-Qaeda terrorist groups in Syria and destroyed Yemen with brutal military aggression, it was Iran that fought the terrorists to establish stability and security in the region.” Moreover, Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Chinese ambassador over the joint statement following the China-GCC countries summit in Saudi Arabia. In the meeting with the Chinese ambassador, the Iranian side expressed dissatisfaction with the joint statement by the Gulf Cooperation Council and China regarding Iran’s territorial integrity. It was emphasized that the three islands in the Persian Gulf are inseparable parts of Iran, and like any other Iranian territory, these never have and will never be subject to negotiations with any country.

Upon the Iranian reaction, the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister immediately visited Tehran. “China will not waver in its determination to develop its comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran,” said the Vice Premier of China, emphasizing that China firmly supports Iran in opposing external interference and safeguarding its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national dignity.

The strategic relationship that Iran has recently started to forge with Russia and India has not gone unnoticed by Beijing. Significantly as Iran improved relations with India, relations with China’s ally Pakistan began to deteriorate further. According to American media reports, Russia and Iran are now strategic allies in the Ukraine War. Recent tensions have raised questions about Iran’s possible departure from China and approach to Russia.

All in all, China’s acknowledgment of this tumultuous environment of the Arab world, in which wars and conflicts have continued for a century, means that China is abandoning its traditional foreign policy. Does it produce a great power relationship that resembles tutelage or images of big brother, brother, and master, which China opposes in principle and sees as a policy of imperialism in a world where all of its checks and balances have been established by the tutelage administrations? Does it take this risk? Would China, furthermore, take part in the traditional problems of the Arab world? These questions still have no apparent answers. For instance, the image in the conflict between the United Arab Emirates and Iran was interpreted as China taking a side. Similarly, China is likely to encounter Israel due to the backing given to Palestine. Reiterating that the Asia Pacific is nobody’s backyard, Xi Jinping did not adopt the same rhetoric for the Middle East. The fact is that Biden declared during his visit to Israel last summer that the United States would not abandon the Middle East and would not cede control in the region to Russia and China suggests that the geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States in the Asia Pacific will soon move to the Middle East.

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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