The Russo-German reconciliation was a miracle, now it is shattered, says Russian expert

Professor Dmitriy Trenin, Academic Director of the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, stated in a speech at a panel organized by the Schiller Institute that Europe has become Russia’s main enemy in the war in Ukraine and that the current situation is more dangerous than even the most tense moments of the Cold War.

“One of the most striking developments has been Europe’s advance to the front line of the conflict in Ukraine, transforming itself into the main enemy on the battlefield for Russia in the West’s proxy war against Russia,” Trenin said.

Arguing that the current crisis is more dangerous than the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, Trenin issued the following warning:

“This crisis will not stop at the brink of the abyss as it did in 1962. However, unlike in 1962, the new nuclear crisis that could call the world’s existence into question will not be in the Caribbean or elsewhere. It appears this crisis will unfold in Eastern Europe.”

“Europe has cast Russia in the role of the enemy”

Trenin stated that Europe’s stance stems from two main developments. The first, he said, is that Russia has begun to win the war in Ukraine, and the second is that the US, under the Trump administration, has shifted its focus to Asia, particularly China, thus deprioritizing Europe.

In this new environment, European leaders found it useful to cast Russia in the role of the “enemy at the gates” to further consolidate Europe as a power center and a strategic actor, Trenin said. “Standing up to Russia has been elevated to almost a new unifying idea for Europe. This thinking is based on the ludicrous assumption that Russia is preparing to attack Europe in the medium term, within the next three to five years,” he said.

From Russia’s perspective, he added, Europe is not only deterring a possible attack but is “effectively preparing to fight against Russia within the next three to five years.”

“The Russo-German reconciliation is shattered”

In his speech, Trenin expressed his deep sorrow over the state of Russo-German relations, describing the situation as a personal tragedy. Trenin used the following words:

“It gives me great pain to state that the Russo-German reconciliation is shattered. This reconciliation was almost a miracle. This reconciliation, reinforced by Moscow’s acceptance and even support for German reunification 35 years ago, is no more. It has sunk before our eyes. This was something I personally hailed as a miracle, an incredible thing you couldn’t expect to happen. But it did, and then it was progressively weakened over the last 20 years.”

“Three missed opportunities led to war”

Trenin emphasized that there were three significant missed opportunities that could have prevented the war. First, he stated that NATO’s expansion into Ukraine was the “real red line” and that this led to the war.

Second, Trenin expressed that the crisis could have been stopped if the 2015 Minsk Agreement had been honored by all parties. “But this agreement, as Merkel once admitted, was seen only as a tool to buy time for Ukraine to rearm,” he said.

Finally, Trenin stated that the war could have been stopped if the draft agreement prepared in Istanbul in 2022 had been signed, but this was sabotaged by the joint efforts of the US and the United Kingdom. “We did not use any of the three chances. Perhaps God has no more chances to give us. But I still hope we can avoid the worst,” he concluded.