‘The solution to the Palestinian issue depends on a global power like China’

Professor Ma Xiaolin, Director of Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim(ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in China, spoke to Harici. Prof. Ma said that he does not think that the conflict in Gaza will spread to the Middle East, adding that Beijing can play a role as a ‘superpower’ in resolving the conflict.

Prof. Ma Xiaolin is the Executive Director of the China Foundation for International Studies and the China Academy of Middle East Studies, and is also the director of the China-Arab Friendship Association.

Prof. Ma knows the Middle East well, having worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine and Iraq for many years. He focuses his academic studies on the Middle East, Arab geography and China-Middle East relations.

Israel’s attacks on civilians in Gaza, which started on October 7, on the grounds of a Hamas raid, have lasted more than two months and more than 18,000 people, including at least 8,000 children and 6,000 women, have been killed. Israel’s indiscriminate attacks have led to growing reactions in the international community. Even in the United States, which declared its unlimited support, debates started. US President Biden warned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that “either you change your position or you will be alone”. On the other hand, while Netanyahu refused to agree to a permanent ceasefire, countries in the region turned to China for a solution. Beijing has repeatedly called for a permanent ceasefire and reiterated its stance in favor of an independent Palestinian state and a two-state solution.

We spoke to Prof. Ma Xiaolin, who follows the region closely, about the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and China’s position.

‘Gaza conflict will not spread to the Middle East’

How do you think the conflict in Gaza will affect the Middle East in the long run?

I think this is a storm in a teapot. I don’t think this storm will completely change the structure and the situation in the Middle East, because most of the countries in the Middle East want to maintain stability, they want to maintain normal relations with other countries, and nobody can cut diplomatic relations with Israel, including Turkey, Britain, Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Malibu.

In addition, both Saudi Arabia and Iran care very much about the historic reconciliation that was won with great difficulty, and the fact that the two heads of state spoke on the phone for the first time over the Palestinian-Israeli conflict shows that the two major oil producing countries have reached an agreement with each other.

No matter how much Israel attacks Gaza, or even completely crushes it, no matter how great the Palestinian casualties, the war will not spread to Lebanon and Syria and the situation will not change. In fact, it will not change the current general pattern of peace in the Middle East, of dialogue and reconciliation outside Palestine and Israel.

The escalation of the conflicts and the volatility of the oil market had led to public concern that the Middle East would be plunged into a new war, which would trigger a global energy crisis with Saudi Arabia taking the lead in cutting oil supplies. But now the market situation is generally calm and rational, and it is believed that a repeat of the global oil crisis is unlikely.

In short, the situation has changed dramatically and geopolitical relations in the Middle East are undergoing a constructive and landmark shift. Israel has normalized relations with six Arab countries, the Cold War and military confrontation system of the Israeli-Arab camp has long since disintegrated, and the US continues to shift its strategic focus eastwards. Therefore, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may only be a “tempest in a teapot” and will not spread to the entire Middle East, and the global oil market will not relive the nightmare of 50 years ago.

‘The main focus of the US is the Indo-Pacific’

The US has sent one of its largest warships to the Mediterranean. Attacks on US bases in the region are increasing. In Lebanon, tensions with Hezbollah are rising. Attacks are being organized by the Houthis. Do you think the US will return to the Middle East?

No, never. The US has sent three battle groups to the eastern Mediterranean just to show its support for Israel and to warn certain functions like Hezbollah and Iranian militias not to get involved in this conflict.

Hamas was allegedly supported by Iran at the beginning of the conflict, but Iran denied this and had no intention of getting involved. By sending an aircraft carrier battle group, the US explicitly threatened Iran and other Hamas allies not to take advantage of the situation, but the White House also said that there was no evidence that Iran was helping Hamas.

So clearly, the US hopes to maintain overall stability in the Middle East, to avoid escalation or expansion of the war, to maintain a low level of strategic investment, and to avoid falling into the Middle East quagmire by further straining its own scarce resources. Because this interferes with its priorities of focusing on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and containing the great powers.

One of the most important reasons for the US to avoid getting involved in the conflict is its focus on the Indo-Pacific. As you know, they are totally focused on China. The US has reduced its involvement in the Middle East in the last 20 years, because until October 7, they ensured the security and stability of Israel, oil production is stable and there are no problems, and they also pushed back ISIS and they also control weapons of mass destruction. I think this is enough for the Americans.

You mentioned the possibility of Iran’s involvement in the conflict. It is known that European countries want China to use its influence on Iran to pressure it not to get involved in the conflict. What do you think, would Beijing do that?

I think this request is positive, of course Iran is behind Hamas. Maybe China can discuss with Iran about regional security. Maybe discuss how to deal with the Middle East issues, how to keep the region stable, because stability is good for the common interest of both Iran and China. But this does not mean pressure.

‘China has the same stance as Islamic countries’

Why do you think the leaders of the Arab countries visited China as the first stop for a solution in Gaza? What can China do or not do for a solution in Gaza?

Solving the problem in Gaza or solving the Palestinian issue depends on a superpower. But right now America is not trustworthy. Especially you know that they have lost the trust of all the countries in the region. That’s why the ministers chose China. Especially the Islamic and Arab countries do not believe and trust the Americans. Because the US stands with Israel.

So the Islamic countries and our country want to advance the peace process that they need. And this depends on a superpower like China. Russia is busy with Ukraine. Europe is very busy with its own problems. So China has the same stance and values as the Islamic countries.

So together we can create a unified process to work to influence Israel, to work to moderate the different Palestinian functions like Hamas and Fatah.

Do you believe this is realistic?

It is realistic as a side solution because more than 50 Islamic countries and China as a major power are pressing for it. I am talking about a two-state solution, not just a ceasefire. Finally, without a two-state basis, Israel will destroy itself. Israel can never maintain its absolute security on the basis of occupation. You know this history, history has taught them this lesson. It made the world realize that if the Palestinian issue is not properly resolved, there will be no real security, no matter how strong Israel is.

‘Post-war Netanyahu will face crises’

The Netanyahu administration started to lose international support. There is also a growing backlash against him within the country. What kind of political atmosphere do you think awaits Israel after the war?

The biggest risk posed by Israel’s siege of Gaza continues to be the humanitarian crisis. With the arrival of winter, many Palestinian civilians living in temporary tent camps will struggle to survive in conditions of low temperatures, rain and shortages of supplies, forcing them into a second major exodus is not only a challenge to the conscience of the international community and the Palestinian people. It is against the norms of international law, but it is also a new storm of public opinion against Israel. Already, some countries have announced that they are severing diplomatic relations with Israel or recalling their ambassadors, while others are preparing to bring criminal charges against Israeli leaders. As the war in Gaza drags on and the humanitarian crisis intensifies, Israel may face new diplomatic crises.

But before these conflicts began, events such as judicial reform had already jeopardized Netanyahu’s political life. The October 7 Hamas raid raised questions about the government’s ability to fulfill its mandate. After the war, such issues will be on the table and Netanyahu may have to take political and legal responsibility. That is why he does not want any permanent ceasefire in the short term, except for a temporary one.

Israel also attacked the south of Gaza. The north is already in ruins. These events have put Israel under even more international pressure. Israel’s public diplomatic response has been mixed over the last few weeks, and if it does not correct its mentality and posture soon, it will become even more isolated and passive. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu inappropriately quoted the Bible, describing the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as a grudge between the ancient Jews and the Amalekites. Former Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon illogically and unprofessionally suggested that the Palestinians move to Egypt. Israel’s UN Representative Gilad Erdan’s frequent embarrassing statements at the United Nations have negatively affected the international community’s perception of the Israeli government and its national image.

Therefore, how the Palestinian-Israeli situation develops will also depend on how domestic and international public opinion in Israel changes.