Diplomacy
Tony Blair: From lapdog to trustee
Eric Hobsbawm called him “Thatcher in trousers.” With the invasion of Iraq, he became better known as “Bush’s lapdog” or “poodle.”
The moniker isn’t mine: a 2002 poll for Channel 4 News revealed that nearly half of the British public saw the then-Prime Minister Tony Blair as George Bush’s “lapdog.” So much so that the famous British singer George Michael, in the music video for his song “Shoot the Dog,” satirized the now-disgraced prime minister as Bush’s dog: Blair was shown playing “fetch” and being rewarded with a belly rub from Bush.
Perhaps Nelson Mandela, with a more “subtle” view, called Blair the “US Secretary of State.” The “special relationship” connecting both sides of the Atlantic was being lambasted in the old, toothless empire [a reference to the declining British Empire] as a one-sided affair.
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However, this branding of the transatlantic special relationship as “lapdoggery” was not new.
In 1983, a Labour MP called Margaret Thatcher “Reagan’s poodle” following the US invasion of Grenada. Similar insults include claims that the United Kingdom is a “US satellite state” or “America’s 51st state.”
These narratives about Britain’s subservience continued into Blair’s early years. A significant example of this was the newspaper article by future Mayor of London Ken Livingstone titled “Uncle Sam’s Patsy.”
It seems Hobsbawm’s description, so to speak, had hit the nail on the head. The historian was criticizing Blair as the domestic successor to the conservative Iron Lady’s neoliberalism, but when it came to aligning with American policies and geopolitical interests, we were also facing a Thatcherism that the Labour Party had eagerly embraced.
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He is praised as the man who solved the problems in Kosovo and Ireland. The “solution” in Kosovo was the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. As prime minister, Blair was one of the strongest supporters of the NATO invasion of Kosovo in 1999. In his famous “Chicago speech,” he declared that the policy of “appeasing” the “evil dictator” Slobodan Milošević was over and that the time for intervention had come. In this speech, a tremendous reflection of “liberal interventionism” and the American neocon mindset, the praise of globalization and the bogeyman of Milošević-Saddam were constantly invoked. NATO had to intervene in Kosovo to secure its credibility; national sovereignty now had to be viewed in a new light.
Last June in Pristina, in his 25th-anniversary speech to the Kosovo assembly—which Serbia does not recognize—he claimed to have no regrets about the bombing and invasion. Had it not been for the Iraq fiasco, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see him carried on shoulders as the savior of Kosovo: parents emerged in the region who named their children “Tonibler”!
It was suggested that he wanted to transform the Labour Party tradition, often accused of being “weak” on foreign policy, and become more hawkish. Indeed, even before the 1999 attack on Yugoslavia, he would eagerly support Bill Clinton’s Operation Desert Fox in Iraq in December 1998.
Moreover, if we are to believe his biographer Anthony Seldon and Jonathan Powell, who was interviewed for the book, Blair’s religiosity played a significant role behind his “messianic” and “moral” stance: it is claimed that the Prime Minister’s baptism in the Anglican Church while studying law at Oxford in 1972 “affected his entire life” and that his conversion to Catholicism after leaving office was widely “predicted.”
Speaking of Jonathan Powell… when you say “conflict resolution,” his name is written alongside Blair’s as the former-and-current civil servant. Indeed, Powell, known as the man who brokered the Good Friday Agreement, not only managed the British state’s Syria file but also played a decisive role on the issue of Gaza and Palestine. The task of writing a separate, detailed profile of Powell still awaits, but it’s worth noting in passing: last August, The New York Times wrote that an 8-point Palestine plan prepared by Powell was being “circulated” among London’s allies. A day after Powell put the plan into circulation, 22 Arab countries signed a declaration reflecting the plan’s main objectives at a United Nations conference jointly organized by Macron and the Saudis. The declaration, coincidentally, included for the first time the Arab League’s demand for Hamas to disarm and relinquish its power in Gaza. The same theme was also dominant in the Trump declaration that would place Blair at the head of a “mandate” administration in Gaza as a trustee. It seemed the two pals, after all the years and roads traveled, had once again decided to implement Anglo-American plans, this time under different circumstances.
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He was one of those who spread the lie about weapons of mass destruction in the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq. According to an inquiry held in his country years later, Tony Blair had “misused” intelligence regarding Iraq’s weapons capabilities before the 2003 war but had not deliberately misled Parliament:
The Prime Minister had “exaggerated” the evidence for WMDs, but he and others had believed it.
The Chilcot report, published in 2016, revealed that former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein did not pose “an imminent threat” at the time of the 2003 invasion and that the war was waged based on “flawed” intelligence. The Blair cabinet’s decision to invade was made under “far from satisfactory” circumstances.
The effects of the WMD lie should not be underestimated. Blair’s powers of persuasion in the weeks before the invasion led to a partial sense of unity around the Union Jack. Support for the war rose from 38% to 53% on the day of the invasion and climbed to 66% when US troops entered Baghdad.
Allegedly, on April 28, 2003, just a few weeks after the fall of Baghdad, the chairman of the joint intelligence committee, John Scarlett, went to the office of Tony Blair’s press secretary, Alastair Campbell, and asked in a panic: “How difficult would our position be if it emerges that we can’t find evidence of Saddam’s WMD program?” Campbell replied, “Very, very, very difficult.”
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If he had a “legacy,” the Iraq invasion consumed it. Within this legacy that left nothing behind was also the rampant neoliberalism disguised as the “Third Way.” There were those who argued that the Labour Party’s Third Way pursued a domestic policy that did not deviate an inch from Thatcherism. Privatizations, market adoration, attacks on the acquired rights of the working class, financial deregulation… all of these continued during the Blair era. The financialization and deindustrialization that had rapidly advanced in Britain during the Thatcher period were continued in exactly the same way under the Labour government in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Blair was the bearer of a mission to erase the 20th century in post-Cold War Britain. The “new” capitalism of the Third Way made one long for the old. Alongside Blair, Bill Clinton across the ocean and Gerhard Schröder across the Channel would end their careers as the prodigal sons of the new social democracy.
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Clinton would busy himself with “charity” work, while Schröder would line his pockets with the fire of cheap Russian gas until he fell from grace after the Ukraine war.
The role that fell to Blair, as if to mock mere mortals like us, was to be appointed as the special envoy for the Middle East Quartet, where he would display his vast knowledge in the field of diplomacy by returning to the scene of the crime. The group, consisting of the United Nations, the EU, the US, and Russia, was a product of the search for a solution to the “Palestinian-Israeli issue.”
I don’t know if Donald Trump and Jared Kushner were aware of Blair’s grandiose schemes at the time. But if they were, they must have been impressed. The “Valley of Peace” initiative, developed in 2008, aimed to improve cooperation and increase employment opportunities between Palestine and Israel by creating new economic zones on the Israel-Jordan border. At the time, The Jerusalem Post wrote that the German, Japanese, and Turkish governments had begun to raise hundreds of millions of dollars for the project.
Four locations in the West Bank were selected to support this initiative. Japan’s deputy ambassador to Israel told former Israeli President Shimon Peres that a site on the outskirts of Jericho had been chosen for the construction of an agro-industrial park. According to a memo obtained by the Post, Japanese planners were holding talks with Israeli security officials to coordinate the movement of goods and workers.
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It makes one want to say there is nothing new under the sun. Blair, who left his post at the Quartet in 2015, would get into the think tank business and mobilize for “peace.”
The “Tony Blair Institute for Global Change” (TBI) viewed Iran as a threat while engaging with both sides for a Middle East where Palestine and Israel could live “side by side.”
So where was this “non-profit organization” funded from? In 2018, TBI admitted for the first time that it had received payment from Saudi Arabia. Besides Riyadh, its funders included the US State Department, the Canadian government, some African governments, and the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, established by a Ukrainian billionaire. TBI claimed to operate with a sublime sense of mission: “to help make globalization work for the many, not the few.”
The Saudi donation came from an entity called Media Investment Limited (MIL), a subsidiary of the Saudi Research & Marketing Group (SRMG) registered in Guernsey. The chairman of SRMG was Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Mohammed al Farhan, who is still the minister of culture. According to The Telegraph, the money that went from MIL to TBI amounted to £9 million as of 2018.
According to a Financial Times report from the same period, Blair spent 80% of his time at TBI. At the COP29 summit held in Azerbaijan last year, TBI played a significant role: 12 people in the Azerbaijani delegation were providing consultancy services as paid employees of the Blair institute. Blair also met with Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology, Mukhtar Babayev, in Baku “to discuss climate action.”
But of course, it’s unthinkable for the former prime minister to do just one thing: he also held many lucrative jobs, including the chairmanship of the JPMorgan International Council and the advisory board of the Southern Gas Corridor pipeline. The Financial Times wrote that Blair earned “irregular income” from high-paying speaking engagements with his vast knowledge.
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It seems it was also in his destiny to return to Palestine, nearly 80 years after the British Empire left the region, as its informal representative and an American trustee. He will now lead the “Peace Board,” the fancy name chosen by Trump for the mandate and protectorate, for disarming the Palestinian resistance, and for opening the region to the plunder of capital.
Blair stated that he would be pleased to serve as the Gaza trustee with the approval and at the discretion of President Trump. In his statement, he showered praise on the Trump plan, presumably also getting his own back for the failure of his “Valley of Peace” initiative. According to him, if the 20-point declaration—which could actually be called the Kushner-Blair plan—is accepted, it will end the war, allow immediate aid into Gaza, and offer the Palestinian people the chance for a “brighter and better future,” while also ensuring Israel’s “absolute and permanent security” and the release of all hostages.
Here it was, the “bold and wise plan” put forth by Trump, which offered “us the best chance” to end two years of war, misery, and suffering.
Finally, he thanked President Trump for his “leadership, determination, and dedication.”
Backed by the firepower of Anglo-American imperialism and Zionism, the “smart city” fantasies of Silicon Valley, and the prayers of collaborationist regimes in the region, Blair, who had paused his Middle East career with his tail between his legs, was thus resuming it from where he left off as a colonial trustee.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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