Trump 2.0 Sets Sail Again, Sino-US Relations Remain Unclear

On January 20 (Eastern Time), Republican Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States in Washington. In front of numerous former U.S. presidents and dignitaries, Trump delivered a passionate and fiery inaugural speech. On his first day in office, he signed nearly 80 executive orders, marking the relaunch of “Trump 2.0” as he aggressively pursued what he called America’s “Golden Age.”

Despite the world having psychologically prepared itself for the impact of Trump’s “comeback,” his overwhelming confidence and assertiveness still caused a huge shock. Observers noted that not only would America undergo significant change, but the world would also be different, with the outlook for Sino-U.S. relations remain not optimistic.

In his speech, Trump reiterated that his survival during an assassination attempt during his campaign was “God’s intervention to make America great again,” endowing himself with a “Messianic” aura and a sense of religious mission. He declared, “For American citizens, January 20, 2025, is Liberation Day. I hope this election will be remembered as the greatest and most important election in our nation’s history.”

Trump vowed that from the day of his inauguration, the United States “will prosper, regain respect from the world, and his administration will simply put America first.” He promised that America “will soon be greater, stronger, and more exceptional than ever before.”

Trump outlined a lengthy to-do list, including reclaiming sovereignty, restoring security, correcting judicial and administrative standards, protecting borders from illegal immigration, safeguarding the homeland from natural and man-made disasters, uniting different ethnic groups to achieve Martin Luther King’s dream, deporting and repatriating foreign criminals, defeating inflation, deregulating hydrocarbons, rebuilding manufacturing, especially the automobile industry, imposing heavy tariffs abroad while reducing domestic burdens, rebuilding a strong military without engaging in world wars, expanding sovereignty and territory, and conquering Mars—all to return American society to a binary gender world.

Trump is the second U.S. president in history to be re-elected after not serving consecutive terms. What makes his second term extraordinary is not just his overwhelming victory over his opponent but also that the Republican Party controls both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court, creating a rare “one-party dominance” across all three branches of government. This result indicates that not only has the Republican Party become “Trumpized,” but America itself has also been deeply influenced by Trumplization. This ensures that “Trump 2.0” will carry out his and the Republican Party’s governance philosophy with more determination and decisiveness than “Trump 1.0.”

With the confidence of a “victor beyond reproach,” Trump signed 78 executive orders on his first day in office, completely overturning and nullifying the orders issued by his predecessor, Biden. These actions not only signify major changes in U.S. domestic policy but also signal significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy, international relations, and global governance systems. Key measures include: announcing the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization, imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, initiating a tax investigation on Chinese goods, granting TikTok’s parent company ByteDance 75 days to restructure and suggesting a joint venture with the U.S. to share control, renaming the “Gulf of Mexico” as the “American Gulf,” re-designating Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, declaring a state of emergency in the southern U.S., and ordering troop deployments to the U.S.-Mexico border.

As an observer of China’s international relations, I am naturally more concerned about how “Trump 2.0” defines China and handles Sino-US relations. It is well known that after the normalization of Sino-US relations, bilateral ties took a sharp downturn precisely during the “Trump 1.0” era. Trump has even claimed that America’s decline is largely due to China’s rise and strength, accusing China of causing the hollowing out of American manufacturing. Thus, most analysts naturally predict that Sino-US relations during the “Trump 2.0” era could face more complex, challenging, and turbulent conditions.

However, during Trump’s campaign for the White House, his attacks on China noticeably decreased, and his tone softened. Instead, he attributed America’s failures more to its internal mismanagement and over-commitment internationally. As Trump’s path to victory became clearer, he even sent some optimistic signals regarding Sino-US relations. On July 4, 2024, during a campaign speech in Virginia, Trump stated, “The United States does not need to be enemies with China, Russia, or North Korea.” On December 16, at Mar-a-Lago, Trump reiterated, “China and the United States can work together to solve all the world’s problems…”

As the power transition approaches, Trump continues to extend olive branches to China: he threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico but emphasized an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. He broke precedent by inviting Chinese leaders to attend his inauguration and declared his intent to visit China within the first 100 days of his new administration. His first policy documents upon returning to the White House hardly mentioned China.

There are indeed concerns that the start of “Trump 2.0” could mark a new blow to Sino-US relations. However, this “disaster” has not yet occurred. At least, Sino-US relations have not been listed as a top priority for Trump. For some time, traditionally hardline anti-China figures, such as Vice President-elect Vance and Secretary of State-elect Rubio, have also noticeably toned down their rhetoric, avoiding comments on Sino-US relations. On January 16, during a Senate hearing, Rubio still criticized China but emphasized that “some sort of solution” could be found between the two countries. Rubio’s remarks were interpreted as a softening of his stance, even though China has yet to lift sanctions against him. Analysts believe that while Rubio and others remain deeply anti-China at heart, the decision-making power on Sino-US relations rests with the White House. Ultimately, Rubio and others must align with Trump’s position and maintain absolute loyalty.

Before Trump’s inauguration, China announced that Vice President Han Zheng would attend the ceremony as President Xi Jinping’s representative. President Xi also had a phone call with Trump, congratulating him on his re-election and discussing bilateral relations and hot issues candidly. During the inauguration, Han Zheng was warmly received by Vance, and their discussions were positive and constructive. These signs indicate that there may be subtle changes in Trump’s China policy, presenting a significant opportunity for improvement in Sino-US relations.

The impact of “Trump 2.0” on the United States and the world is undoubtedly strong, but what changes it may bring to Sino-US relations remain uncertain. Some analysts suggest that American business giants like Elon Musk, who depend on China’s vast market, may have positively influenced Trump’s views and policies towards China. Others speculate that Trump is in a phase of prioritizing other urgent matters or that his actions towards countries like Canada, Mexico, and Panama are attempts to signal strength to China, laying the groundwork for future pressure or negotiations.

The working style of “Trump 1.0” is already well-known and has been systematically summarized by many, which can be roughly outlined in four points:

1. Simple and direct, yet effective – Practicing unilateralism, frequently employing trade sanctions along with military threats, quickly achieving results favorable to the United States, suppressing both strategic competitors and allies without hesitation.
2. A combination of hard and soft approaches – Following the “stick and carrot policy,” using threats and inducements, applying maximum pressure if the opponent refuses to accept compromise conditions.
3. Chop and change, yet consistent – Driven by a clear profit-oriented personality, practicing pragmatism with a variety of means while never deviating from the primary goal.
4. Transactional Businessman Approach – Valuing mutual or even multi-party benefits, presenting specific demands, willing to engage in exchanges of interests, but never doing deals that result in losses.

As President of the United States, Trump undoubtedly represents U.S. interests and is certainly unwilling to accept the decline of the U.S., let alone being overtaken by China. Given his previous record of initiating a “reverse gear” in Sino-U.S. relations, expecting him to completely improve Sino-U.S. ties and create conditions for China’s continued development and prosperity would be unrealistic and naïve.

The era of “Trump 2.0” has now arrived. China has expressed its consistent willingness to promote the positive development of Sino-U.S. relations. However, whether this goodwill can be translated into reality depends crucially on how Trump and American policymakers calibrate and position Sino-U.S. relations. In short, the ball remains in Washington’s court.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.