Trump administration weighs Cuba threat amid claims of Russian and Iranian drone support

The US administration has begun efforts to build a public case and justification for a possible military strike against Cuba.

According to what Axios described as “classified intelligence” shared with the outlet, Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and has recently discussed plans to use them against the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay, US military vessels, and potentially Key West, Florida, located 90 miles (144.8 km) north of Havana.

A senior US official said the intelligence, which could serve as a pretext for military action, reflected the extent to which the Trump administration views Cuba as a growing threat because of advances in drone warfare and the presence of Iranian military advisers in Havana.

“When you think about these technologies being this close and the array of bad actors — from terrorist groups to drug cartels, from Iranians to Russians — it’s concerning. This is an expanding threat,” the official said.

US officials allege that Cuba has been purchasing attack drones with “various capabilities” from Russia and Iran since 2023 and has deployed them at strategic sites across the island.

A senior US official said Cuban authorities had requested additional drones and military equipment from Russia within the past month.

The official also cited intelligence that purportedly showed Cuban intelligence officials attempting to “learn how Iran has resisted the US.”

According to the US, both Russia and China operate high-tech espionage facilities in Cuba for collecting signals intelligence, or SIGINT.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a congressional hearing on Tuesday that Washington had long been concerned by “the existence of a foreign adversary operating such facilities so close to our shores.”

Responding to Miami Republican Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, Hegseth also said Fidel Castro had been complicit in the order to shoot down aircraft belonging to the Brothers to the Rescue organization.

The Cuban Embassy initially did not respond to Axios’ request for comment, but later issued a written statement on X that did not deny possessing attack drones.

“Like every country, Cuba has the right to defend itself against foreign aggression. That is called legitimate self-defense, and this right is protected by international law and the UN Charter,” the statement said.

“Those in the US who seek the submission or even destruction of the Cuban nation through military aggression and war waste no time fabricating pretexts, producing and spreading lies, and portraying the sensible preparations required against a possible attack as though they were extraordinary developments.”

According to the report, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba on Thursday and explicitly warned officials there against engaging in “hostile actions.”

A CIA official told Axios that Ratcliffe also urged Cuban authorities to “eliminate their totalitarian regime” in order to end heavy US sanctions.

“Director Ratcliffe made clear that Cuba can no longer be used as a platform for our adversaries to advance hostile agendas in our hemisphere,” the official said.

“The Western Hemisphere cannot be a playground for our enemies.”

On Wednesday, the US Department of Justice is expected to revive an indictment against Raul Castro over allegations that he ordered the 1996 downing of two aircraft belonging to the Miami-based humanitarian group Brothers to the Rescue. New sanctions targeting the island could also be announced this week.

US officials further allege that nearly 5,000 Cuban soldiers have fought for Russia in the Ukraine war and that some of them have relayed information on the effectiveness of drone warfare to military leaders on the island.

According to US officials’ estimates, Russia paid the Cuban government approximately $25,000 for every soldier sent to Ukraine.

“They are part of Putin’s meat grinder. They are learning Iran’s tactics. This is something we have to plan for,” the senior official said.

At the same time, according to the report, US officials do not believe Cuba poses an imminent threat or is actively planning attacks against US interests.

However, US intelligence assessments suggest Cuban military officials are discussing drone warfare plans in preparation for possible conflict should relations with Washington continue to deteriorate.

Unlike Iran’s ability to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, Cuba does not possess the capability to shut down the Florida Straits.

US officials also do not believe Cuba represents a military threat on the scale of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

“Nobody is worried about Cuban fighter jets. It’s not even clear whether they have a plane that can fly,” the official said.

“But it’s worth noting how close they are — 90 miles. That’s not something we’re comfortable with.”