Trump’s challenges and Palestinians’ decisive choices

In light of Trump’s escalating statements, which fit into a carefully calculated context, they cannot be viewed as random but rather as part of a well-planned strategy. His aim is to put all parties, whether Palestinians or regional states, in a difficult position, where any concession becomes an additional gain for Israel. Within this context, Washington partially relinquishes its role in managing the situation in favor of Tel Aviv, enabling the latter to achieve regional gains and complete the objectives of its aggressive war on Palestinians through other means. Amid these developments, Palestinians face a critical crossroads, which became evident after the ceasefire, placing the Palestinian cause before two main paths.

One possibility is preserving Palestinian existence, ensuring unity, national identity, and political sovereignty through a Palestinian-led initiative that asserts the establishment of a Palestinian state. This path would reinforce national cohesion, institutional integrity, and unified decision-making while integrating into the regional framework to counter final liquidation efforts targeting the Palestinian cause.

The other trajectory leads to sliding into fragmentation and collapse, as elimination projects are not confined to a specific limit but may push Palestinian aspirations for liberation into directions that contradict the essence of the national project. This would lead to deeper divisions, political nihilism, and the erosion of the Palestinian cause’s historical and civilizational depth, ultimately turning it into a burden on regional security and global peace rather than a legitimate national liberation movement grounded in historical rights and international agreements.

These decisive choices take shape as the true nature of Israeli policies becomes increasingly evident, bolstered by full American support. This reality positions them as a direct threat to international peace and security while also violating the fundamental principles of the international order established since World War II.

The Zionist right has capitalized on the events of October 7 to construct a new narrative claiming that resolving the conflict with the Palestinians is impossible. This approach is rooted in the “decisive victory” theory, officially adopted by certain Israeli institutions since 2018 with the backing of extreme right-wing factions and full complicity from Netanyahu’s government. It denies the existence of the Palestinian people as a national entity with political rights and presents two options: extermination or forced displacement, all under the guise of maintaining the “purity of the Jewish state” within historic Palestine.

On the other side, regional and international actors, including those not aligned with Palestinian resistance, have insisted on an alternative narrative. They argue that these events did not emerge in isolation but underscore the urgent necessity of resolving the conflict through the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. The Israeli project of mass displacement and genocide recognizes that Palestinian resilience—despite war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and systematic starvation—threatens the very foundation of the Zionist project.

Historically, Palestinian political elites have lagged behind in adapting to shifting realities, missing significant opportunities. Today, however, circumstances are different. If Palestinians can withstand the ongoing crisis, whose dimensions are becoming clearer post-ceasefire, and if a solid regional bloc remains steadfast in its positions and fully aware of the dangers facing the region, a fundamental shift in the fate of the Palestinian cause and the region’s political landscape may take place.

This transformation is already visible in the increasing pace of regional coordination and efforts to bridge internal divides. The decline of rigid alignments based on positions toward Iran and the reassessment of regional stances on the Arab Spring mark the beginning of a new phase of political and strategic engagement.

Emerging geopolitical shifts may lead to solutions that recognize the historical rights of the Palestinian people, most notably the establishment of a Palestinian state. Such a development may not necessarily require direct negotiations with Israel at this stage, particularly given the dominance of the Zionist right in Israeli decision-making. However, Israeli security concerns will ultimately remain linked to the Palestinians, who will assert their conditions in any final settlement, ensuring that their fundamental rights remain non-negotiable.

This phase is marked by a growing recognition of the Palestinians’ legal and political status, making engagement with an already established Palestinian state unavoidable. If regional actors successfully support this trajectory, broader international backing could follow. Strong indicators of this shift include the emergence of a global coalition of nearly 100 countries, including the European Union, which has explicitly affirmed that its objective is resolving the conflict based on a two-state solution, as outlined in international law. In practice, this means enforcing the establishment of a Palestinian state, even if full recognition remains incomplete at this stage.

Although Palestinians do not yet fully control the territories administered by the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza due to Israeli occupation, settlement expansion, and the Judaization of Jerusalem, their demographic resilience, international recognition, and commitment to resistance continue to strengthen their position in the struggle for complete liberation.

The greatest challenge to the Palestinian position remains the political division and continued efforts to separate Gaza from the West Bank. This fragmentation disrupts the coherence of Palestinian political institutions and governance, despite numerous agreements emphasizing the unity of Palestinian decision-making. However, these agreements have yet to be fully implemented, threatening Palestinian resilience and undermining the significant sacrifices made by the people. Additionally, division weakens regional support and forfeits the opportunity to leverage the current international momentum that could enhance Palestinian diplomatic and political standing.

Beyond internal divisions, regional transformations play a crucial role in shaping this landscape. Arab states are no longer in the same position as they were during the Nakba. Regardless of varying perspectives on their positions, they are now politically stable, with significant economic and military influence on the global stage.

Moreover, many states now view themselves as directly impacted by Israel’s war on Palestinians and by U.S. policies that enable Israeli aggression. Washington’s approach, aimed at imposing an outdated global dominance, has led several states—including those once classified as part of the “moderate Arab camp”—to seek greater strategic autonomy. No longer willing to comply unconditionally with American dictates that compromise their security and stability, they are exploring alternative pathways, emphasizing regional cooperation to counterbalance U.S.-Israeli ambitions.

These countries recognize their central role in the global power struggle, with the Arab region holding the world’s primary energy resources and serving as a key hub for international trade routes. Their geopolitical significance makes them essential players in shaping future global alignments.

The world is undergoing profound transformations, whose final outcomes remain uncertain. However, these shifts present significant opportunities for Palestinians while also posing substantial risks to marginalized populations, particularly those subjected to systemic oppression, with Palestinians at the forefront of this struggle. They have endured some of the most horrific massacres in modern history, yet they refuse to be seen merely as victims. Instead, they remain a nation that has resisted with resilience and upheld its rights despite the brutality of the occupation.

What remains is for the Palestinian elite to rise to the level of its people’s resilience by overcoming internal divisions and disputes, restructuring the Palestinian political landscape, unifying representative institutions and decision-making bodies, and adapting to regional and international transformations. This requires shifting from a reactive stance to proactive engagement—managing multiple strategic pathways and forging alliances that ensure the Palestinian presence is a decisive factor in any regional or international arrangements. Whether in relation to the Palestinian cause specifically or the broader geopolitical landscape, such an approach is essential for realizing national aspirations and translating them into tangible achievements on the ground.