Trump’s ‘harvest tour’ of the Middle East ends fully loaded

On May 16, Middle East time, U.S. President Trump concluded a four-day official visit to three Arab countries in the Middle East. This marked Trump’s first state visit since reentering the White House, continuing his tradition of valuing the Middle East’s commercial and geopolitical significance. Although Trump unexpectedly “skipped” Israel, America’s top regional ally, this three-country trip — expected to be a “harvest tour” — proved fruitful. Whether it was selling arms, attracting investment, declaring policies, or “harvesting” enemies or strategic opponents, he achieved dazzling results. Judging solely by Trump’s success in massively “attracting funds,” the U.S. not only reinforced its military hegemony, but also showcased its outstanding geopolitical leverage and financial siphoning capabilities, making it hard for other powers or economies to keep up in the short term. In short, the United States remains the only extraterritorial power with strong shaping influence in the Middle East.

Starting May 13, Trump’s Middle East tour began in Saudi Arabia and ended with Qatar and the UAE. The entire process highlighted his “power diplomacy” and “transactional diplomacy.” These three countries are among the wealthiest in the Arab world and heavily rely on the U.S. for national security. It was widely expected that Trump would “suck in” massive amounts of money during the trip — yet the outcome still surprised many.

To ensure that wealthy but weak Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia continue their “ransom” policy — paying large sums to the U.S. for safety and status — Trump high-profiled his return to the White House by declaring he would dedicate his first foreign visit’s “first night” to Riyadh. Moreover, Trump invited Saudi Arabia to host the first high-level U.S.-Russia talks, giving full prestige to the host. He even suggested renaming the “Persian Gulf” to the “Arabian Gulf,” showing thorough preparation and calculated gestures.

Eight years ago, Trump’s first visit to the Gulf reaped over $115 billion in arms sales from Saudi Arabia, secured a ten-year $400 billion Saudi investment promise, and finalized a $40 billion arms deal with Qatar. On this return trip, Trump dropped his previous arrogant posture of mocking Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman at the White House. Instead, at the “Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum 2025” on May 13, he humbled himself, lavished praise, even flattery, repeatedly lauding the young host’s “greatness” and “wisdom,” which earned smiles, warm applause, and standing ovations from the de facto ruler.

U.S.-Saudi relations have entered a new honeymoon phase, arguably the highest point since the turn of the century. The key lies in benefit exchanges and petrodollar deals. On the day Trump arrived in Riyadh, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a $142 billion arms deal, involving five categories of defense equipment and services from over ten American defense firms. Saudi Arabia also pledged to invest $600 billion in the U.S. to strengthen bilateral strategic ties, promote economic prosperity, and jointly aim to raise the investment total to $1 trillion in the coming months. This marked the largest arms and investment deal ever between the two nations. Saudi investments will bolster America’s energy security, defense industry, technological leadership, and access to global infrastructure and critical minerals.

Trump is very familiar with the subtle relations among the wealthy Arab neighbors — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are both rising powers in the Arab League and compete economically and politically. Qatar, previously suppressed and isolated by the duo, has remained resilient thanks to its wealth and U.S. favor — earning a reputation as the “invincible Gulf mini-power.” Trump’s deliberate inclusion of all three countries aimed to leverage Saudi Arabia to draw in Qatar and the UAE, realizing his grand goal of a “trillion-dollar harvest tour.”

Just before Trump’s visit, Qatar’s royal family bypassed U.S. legal restrictions and donated a luxurious $400 million Boeing 747-8 aircraft via the Pentagon to Trump, replacing the over 40-year-old Air Force One. During his visit to Doha on May 14, Trump flattered Emir Tamim of Qatar, describing U.S.-Qatar relations as a “loyal friendship” and saying the two sides “liked each other.” The same day, the U.S. and Qatar signed over $243.5 billion in economic cooperation agreements. This included Qatar’s purchase of 210 Boeing aircraft worth $96 billion — the largest order in Boeing’s history. Qatar also agreed to buy $3 billion worth of MQ-9B drones and anti-drone systems.

In 2017, during Trump’s first visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, he first supported Saudi claims that Qatar was “funding terrorism,” and soon after helped Qatar to “clear its name.” This opportunistic approach — hitting then comforting — allowed Qatar, which hosts the largest U.S. air base in the Gulf, to gain strong protection by frantically purchasing U.S. arms, ultimately escaping the intense pressure and “siege” from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

With the massive “gift packages” from Saudi Arabia and Qatar as a foundation, on the 15th, Trump’s final stop was the UAE, where he facilitated the signing of cooperation agreements exceeding $200 billion. This also included a joint venture to build a data center covering 260,000 square meters with a 5GW capacity — enough to power 2.5 million Nvidia B2000 chips. In fact, as early as March this year, during a U.S. visit by UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh bin Zayed, it was already promised that the UAE would establish a 10-year investment framework worth $1.4 trillion in the United States. This means the UAE proactively and early presented its lavish “gifts” to the White House even before Trump’s Gulf tour had begun.

Trump’s Gulf tour was also a policy announcement tour. During a one-hour impromptu speech at the Saudi-American Investment Forum, Trump theatrically condemned previous U.S. administrations for interfering in the Middle East, claiming they “destroyed more countries than they built” and emphasized that the U.S. has “no permanent enemies.” He candidly stated, “some of America’s closest friends today were once countries we fought against.” Using Saudi Arabia’s development model as an example, he emphasized that “self-reliance” is more effective than “external interference.” Analysts believe that the profit-driven Trump has openly abandoned traditional U.S. value-laden interventionist diplomacy and gunboat policies, aiming instead to reshape the Middle East order through a new “mercantilist” approach.

What surprised global opinion even more was that Trump “left out” his staunch ally Israel on this trip, in order to prevent Israel’s petty calculations from interfering with broader U.S. interests, and to avoid deeper entanglement in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Gaza war quagmire. Previously, Trump had faced backlash from Arab media for his excessive favoritism toward Israel. However, given the unshakable U.S.-Israel alliance and Trump’s close personal ties with Netanyahu, Israel seemed absent from the official visit list, but Trump instinctively did not forget his old friend. He urged Saudi Arabia to quickly join the Abraham Accords to normalize ties with Israel, pushed for Syrian-Israeli reconciliation, and continued to peddle the controversial U.S. argument that Gaza could be taken over.

What truly shocked the world was Trump’s sudden public meeting with Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh, urging him to normalize relations with Israel, expel “Palestinian terrorists” from Syria, and take responsibility for establishing prisons in northeastern Syria to detain jihadists. This meeting — attended in person by the Saudi Crown Prince and via video by Türkiye’s President — marked the first U.S.-Syria summit in 25 years. Furthermore, at the urging of the Saudi and Turkish leaders, Trump announced the lifting of decades-long U.S. economic and trade sanctions on Syria, officially ending 46 years of international, especially unilateral American, sanctions.

Trump’s meeting with al-Sharaa can be seen as a classic example of “value-free diplomacy” and “turning enemies into friends,” as he completely disregarded Sharaa’s past as a long-wanted “terrorist” leader by the U.S., and ignored the fact that Syria’s new government is still led by the “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” group, which remains listed as a terrorist organization by both the U.N. and the U.S. Trump even publicly praised this former “enemy” to American media while boarding his plane out of Saudi Arabia, calling him a “brave warrior of the past” and now a “sunny, handsome tough guy.” On the 16th, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio met with Syrian Foreign Minister Shibani in Antalya, Türkiye, clearly stating that the U.S. would help build a peaceful, stable, and Iran-free Syria.

In fact, observers familiar with Trump’s foreign policy were not surprised. As early as March 2020, during the later part of his first term, Trump abruptly abandoned the U.S.-backed Kabul government of 20 years to quickly end the Afghanistan war. He signed a withdrawal-for-ceasefire agreement with the Taliban — America’s arch-enemy — showing complete disregard for national dignity and political principles. This led to a “two-government” state in Afghanistan and soon after, Taliban regained power. Trump even shamelessly invited Taliban leaders to the White House and fired National Security Advisor Bolton on the spot for opposing the plan.

Another major outcome of Trump’s current Middle East diplomacy was that, using a “carrot and stick” approach, he forced significant concessions from the three main powers of the “Axis of Resistance”: Yemen’s Houthi forces, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and Iran. Just before Trump’s visit, with Amman mediating, the U.S. and the Houthis reached a ceasefire agreement, under which the Houthis pledged not to attack ships passing through the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Hamas announced the release of the last American hostage as a gift for Trump’s arrival — a gesture that also served as a response to Trump’s administration for not fully following Israel’s lead. On May 15, senior Hamas official Basem Naim told the media that Hamas was in direct negotiations with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement to end the Gaza conflict… If a permanent ceasefire is achieved, Hamas could hand over control of the Gaza Strip.

Before Trump’s visit, American representatives had already held four rounds of talks with Iran in Oman’s capital Muscat. Both sides described the discussions as having made “constructive” progress. While in Riyadh, Trump once again publicly addressed Tehran, urging its leaders to choose a “new, better path” and reach a new nuclear agreement with Washington. He warned that this opportunity for a diplomatic solution “will not last forever,” and threatened, “If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch… we will have no choice but to apply maximum pressure and reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero.”

Perhaps due to the earlier four rounds of talks revealing Trump’s intentions and bottom line, or the painful memory of the extreme pressure campaign from his first term, or the strategic failure of the “Sixth Middle East War,” or Russia’s public statement that it would not intervene in a U.S.-Iran military conflict, or observing Trump’s recent positive interactions with the Houthis and Hamas — a series of intense changes led Iran’s government to swiftly and clearly respond to Trump’s mixed diplomatic tactics.

On May 14, Ali Shamkhani, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, stated to NBC that Iran was willing to reach a deal with the U.S. in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. Shamkhani said Iran would promise never to develop nuclear weapons, destroy its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, agree to limit uranium enrichment to levels needed for civilian use, and allow international monitors to supervise the process.

Observers believe this was Iran’s fastest and most flexible compromise stance on the nuclear issue to date. Although Iranian negotiators previously held tough positions, Trump’s successful “harvest tour” in the Gulf, the further strengthening of U.S.-Arab ties, the historic reversal in U.S.-Syria relations, and the disunity among the “Axis of Resistance” members forced Tehran to quickly adjust its diplomatic posture and nuclear stance to avoid deeper isolation and passivity. On May 15, before leaving Doha for the UAE, Trump made it clear that the U.S. and Iran were very close to reaching a nuclear agreement and that Tehran had “to a certain extent” agreed to the terms.

In short, Trump gained substantial results from this Middle East trip. Unexpected developments revealed that his power-based and “transactional” diplomacy is reshaping regional geopolitics. Despite domestic and international challenges, America’s strategic foundation remains stable and strong. The major Gulf oil-producing states, which already invested much of their sovereign wealth in the U.S. market, continue to bet their future wealth preservation, growth, and high-tech development on the United States as their strategic ally. In contrast, their investments in other major economies are negligible — mere “pepper dust” and “drizzle” — highlighting the irreplaceable status of the U.S. as the only current superpower.

At the same time, with the steady collapse of the “Shiite Crescent,” the disintegration of the “Axis of Resistance,” the strengthening of U.S. relations with Arab countries and Türkiye, the expanding normalization under the Abraham Accords between Arab states and Israel, and the possible significant shift in U.S.-Iran relations this year, it is evident that a new Middle East is brewing and beginning to emerge.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.