Trump’s “New Tariff Policy” Provokes Trade War, Hurts Himself and Others

On April 2 (EST), U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10% “base tariff” on imports from over 180 countries and regions, effectived at midnight on April 5, with only Russia temporarily exempted. Additionally, Trump will impose personalized higher “reciprocal tariffs” on countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., effective from midnight on April 9. All other countries will continue under the original 10% base tariff. Trump claimed he holds the “modification authority” to raise or lower tariffs as needed. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant also warned trade partners not to retaliate. On the same day, U.S. stock markets plummeted, with the three major indexes hitting the largest single-day drop in nearly five years, and the dollar also fell against major currencies.

If trade wars are world wars without gunpowder, then Trump has recklessly initiated an unprecedented one, pushing the U.S. into conflict with the entire world. This war concerns not only national tax revenues but also the global industrial, supply, and value chains, the rules of world trade and economic development, and even public sentiment, international relations, and the global power structure.

The Trump administration truly reflects the Republican Party’s preference for elephants, and his “new tariff policy” is like an elephant barging into the china shop of the world trade system and international relations—rampaging recklessly, ignoring friend or foe, causing massive damage, and successfully turning the U.S. into a “global enemy” and “universal nuisance” for the first time.

From an economic perspective, Trump’s tariff plan aims to force countries into new trade deals to balance trade, bring manufacturing back to the U.S., increase employment, tax revenues, and federal savings, and expand the market share of American products—all in support of “Making America Great Again.”

From a geopolitical perspective, the policy fulfills campaign promises by using economic weapons to enhance the U.S.’s bargaining position in global economics and diplomacy. Tariffs are wielded as strategic tools to coerce and weaken opponents, punish allies and partners that challenge U.S. hegemony, and suppress those with differing worldviews—all in order to maintain U.S. dominance in the international order.

Trump’s “new tariff policy” harms in three ways: harms the U.S., harms others, and harms the world.

Firstly, raising import tariffs across the board may not revive U.S. manufacturing or attract investment back home. Instead, it will raise the prices of imported goods, making American distributors and consumers pay more, especially in automobiles, electronics, and household appliances. Moreover, the policy could trigger stagflation, increase costs in agriculture and industry, weaken U.S. export competitiveness, and even lead to exclusion from global markets. Many U.S. business groups harshly criticized the policy, and more than half of public opinion polls are pessimistic. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months from 20% to 35%, in other words, Trump is, so to speak, “shooting himself in the foot.”

Secondly, imposing heavy tariffs on goods imported from various countries into the U.S. will present enormous industrial, trade, and economic challenges—and even social and political crises—for all targeted nations. The high U.S. tariffs may force many multinational companies to withdraw from traditional low-cost countries and relocate to lower-tariff regions, leading those former hosts to suffer from industrial hollowing-out, trade marginalization, financial bubbles in stock and currency markets, and economic deterioration. This could result in national bankruptcy, social unrest, regime changes, or even armed conflict. Historical experience shows that when major economies like the U.S. shift or export their crises, it can bring disaster to developing nations.

Thirdly, Trump’s “new tariff policy” creates a crushing situation, described as “where the elephant herd tramples, no grass grows,” bringing gluttonous calamity to the world. This tariff weapon not only harms over 180 U.S. trade partners, but also disrupts global pricing, trade, labor division, value, and supply systems. It undermines the global trade loop and supply-demand market that the U.S. painstakingly built post-WWII, causing an “epic-level” disaster for the global economy. The Financial Times predicted that a global trade war triggered by Trump could result in $1.4 trillion in economic losses. If countries retaliate with 25% tariffs, the resulting depression could be on par with the Great Depression of 1930.

Trump’s policy reveals a “triple loss” for the U.S. as the world’s leading power: loss of morality, loss of norms, and loss of friends.

Imposing heavy taxes reflects moral failure—selfishness and profit-seeking at the expense of others’ well-being. It’s a modern version of Louis XV’s “After me, the flood,” and a manifestation of America’s impulsive and reckless hegemony, abandoning its professed values of freedom, equality, and fraternity, as well as its evangelical “messianic mission.”

It’s also a loss of norms. As the inheritor of Western civilization, savior in two world wars, and key architect of the post-war global order, the U.S. once stood as a model. Francis Fukuyama even called the “American dream” the “end of history.” But Trump’s policy has shattered that image—applying high tariffs indiscriminately, even starting with close neighbors like Mexico and Canada, and targeting transatlantic allies and Asia-Pacific military partners. The U.S. now acts not as a leader, but as a tyrant. The Trump administration is dismantling the Western “political idol” that stood for nearly a century.

The result is also a loss of trust and allies. In pursuit of “Making America Great Again,” the U.S. is betraying even its closest friends—be it Mexico and Canada (over fentanyl and immigration), its WWII and Cold War allies in Europe, or Indo-Pacific allies like Japan and South Korea. Even new partners like Vietnam feel betrayed. No wonder European leaders now call America “Europe’s enemy” and see “de-risking” as aimed at the U.S.; no wonder Japan’s former PM Ishiba Shigeru bitterly laments his “extreme disappointment and regret”; no wonder Vietnam feels Trump’s “charm diplomacy” has hit the rocks.

In the end, those who once admired, trusted, and followed America are now disillusioned. The U.S. has become isolated.

As Mao Zedong once said, “The first question of revolution is to distinguish friends from enemies.” In today’s global trade system, it’s clear: the U.S. has made itself the enemy of the world. Applied to today’s international relations, global economic and trade systems, and the game of global circulation, all parties would likely have to acknowledge that in the process of maintaining normal and equitable international relations and ensuring smooth, stable international trade and economic operations, the United States has already positioned itself against the entire world—becoming a “global enemy .” At least when measured by the dimension of tariff wars, America’s comprehensive hostility and antagonism toward all nations, regardless of their social systems, political structures, ideologies, or values, has reached an absurd extreme. It now operates under a doctrine of “tariffs first, money above all, America supreme.” On April 2, Trump called it “Liberation Day,” but in truth, it marks America’s turn toward new conservatism, abandonment of globalization, and potential end as a global economic leader. It is a day of disaster for the world economy—and a day of declaration for global partners preparing to resist America’s trade hegemony.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.