On November 6, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate and former U.S. president, won the 2024 presidential election by an overwhelming margin, reclaiming the White House after a four-year hiatus and becoming the 47th president of the United States. Concurrently, the Republican Party secured a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The controversial return of Trump as the head of state and the Republican Party’s potential absolute control over the legislative, executive, and judicial branches led global observers to exclaim that “America has changed!” and consequently, “the world is about to change too!”
The 2024 U.S. presidential election was notably dramatic and full of surprises. President Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent, withdrew from the race mid-campaign due to health issues. Trump, despite facing significant opposition and surviving an assassination attempt, managed a successful comeback. Vice President Kamala Harris, who assumed the Democratic candidacy, initially led in the polls but ultimately suffered a resounding defeat on election day. With this dramatic power shift, prospects of a comprehensive reversal in the established domestic and foreign policies of the Democratic Party have elicited varied reactions—from joy to dismay—within the U.S. and beyond.
Republicans in the U.S. are undoubtedly jubilant, having backed the right candidate in Trump, who, despite initial skepticism during his first campaign, secured at least 312 electoral votes (preliminary figures), cementing a historic victory. Trump is now the second U.S. president to return to the White House through election after previously leaving office. The Republican Party is also poised to secure control over both houses of Congress and numerous state governments, with a Supreme Court already dominated by conservative justices aligned with Republican ideals.
Trump’s victory brings elation to his financial backers, grassroots supporters, industrial workers, and the farming community. These groups resonate with Trump and the Republican Party’s “America First” doctrine and are expected to relish the policies reversing Democratic initiatives and yielding tangible benefits over the next four years.
Conversely, Democrats are facing profound disappointment. Their tenure in the White House was abruptly cut short by the Republican resurgence, culminating in what may be seen as a historic and humiliating defeat, with significant implications for their influence over all three branches of government.
Minority communities, immigrants, leftist progressives, the renewable energy sector, and establishment figures are similarly disheartened by the resurgence of Trump and conservative forces. The return of Trump is expected to stifle minority and immigrant rights, potentially entrenching the U.S. political landscape with a Trumpian ethos. Progressive social movements advocating sexual freedom and the expanding transgender industry are likely to face stringent crackdowns, and the momentum for green and clean energy initiatives may stall. Furthermore, establishment figures fear that the Trump administration could seek to further challenge the American legal system, aiming to consolidate super-executive powers.
Isolationist groups in the U.S. are predictably celebrating, viewing this electoral outcome as a rejection of Biden’s globalist approach and a reassertion of Trumpian and Republican worldviews. The pursuit of “Making America Great Again” and the primacy of “America First” are expected to steer the U.S. away from alliances based on shared values and international obligations, leaning towards mercantilism and self-interest, thus eroding the responsibilities traditionally borne by the world’s leading power and potentially signaling the decline of American hegemony.
In contrast, globalist advocates express profound concern. Trump’s first term already disrupted globalization, alliance networks, and America’s leadership within the Western world. The modest progress made by the Biden administration in restoring these elements is likely to be undone, leaving advocates of “Pax Americana” deeply disappointed.
America’s international allies, too, are split in their reactions, aware of Trump’s policy directions and past actions. Many fear that “Trump 2.0” will push U.S. policies towards greater radicalism and polarization, shunning the compromises and moderation typical of Democratic administrations.
Notably, some U.S. allies and partners who share Trumpian ideology and leadership traits welcome his return. In Europe, far-right movements and Euroskeptics are particularly pleased. Their shared stance on white supremacy, anti-minority and anti-immigrant sentiments, opposition to globalization, and resistance to environmental initiatives align closely with Trump’s platform. Trump’s previous endorsement of Brexit and his initial victory emboldened Europe’s far-right forces. His triumphant return will likely invigorate these groups and even inspire neo-fascist movements with newfound enthusiasm and momentum.
Political leaders in South America who mirror Trump’s ideological style are likely to celebrate his return to power. Among them are Argentina’s President Javier Milei, who came to office a year ago and is often dubbed the “Argentine’s Trump,” and Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro, ousted two years prior but steadfastly strategizing his political comeback. Both leaders anticipate that the resurgence of Trumpism will bolster their political influence and governance models across Latin America.
Traditional European establishment figures, globalists, advocates of European integration, and proponents of transatlantic relations are, in contrast, likely to view Trump’s return with dismay. Memories of Trump’s earlier tenure, during which he undermined the European Union, emboldened far-right movements, pressured NATO members to increase defense spending under the threat of withdrawal, and unilaterally exited various multilateral agreements and international treaties, still linger. Notably, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump severed air and sea connections with Europe, effectively abandoning traditional allies. Today, European leaders have two new concerns: Trump could instigate a trade war with Europe through the imposition of tariffs and force European nations to purchase U.S. oil and gas at high prices.
Reactions in Europe to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict are similarly mixed. A second Trump administration might alter the dynamics of U.S.-Russia, U.S.-Europe, and Russia-Europe relations, potentially reducing NATO’s involvement in the conflict and increasing the likelihood that Europe would have to bear greater military responsibilities independently.
Russia, for its part, would likely welcome Trump’s return. Trump has previously expressed admiration for President Vladimir Putin’s strong leadership style and has advocated for a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, aiming for a normalization of U.S.-Russia and Europe-Russia relations. Should Trump reduce military aid to Ukraine or pressure European nations to sacrifice Ukrainian interests, Russia, currently holding battlefield advantages, could see an expedited path to victory. European nations, sensing this possibility, have proactively signed security pacts with Ukraine to ensure collective defense in the event of diminished U.S. involvement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may be entering another “darkest hour.” The recently disclosed “peace plan” by Trump, while promising continued military assistance, proposes an 800-mile-long demilitarized zone between Russia and Ukraine and bars Ukraine from joining NATO for the next 20 years. A potential ceasefire modeled after the Korean Armistice Agreement could see both sides halting active combat along current lines, resulting in a prolonged stalemate.
The U.S.’s partners in the Middle East are similarly split, with one clear beneficiary and several discontented parties. The Middle East today differs from its state four years ago, as regional states increasingly emphasize autonomy and seek intra-Islamic dialogue and reconciliation, no longer placing their hopes solely in U.S. involvement—with Israel being the notable exception.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the powerful Israeli far-right are undoubtedly delighted by Trump’s re-election. Trump’s staunch support for Israel, paralleled by his antipathy toward Iran and Palestine, signals that Israel will find a dependable ally in Washington. This support comes at a critical time, as the Democratic administration’s patience in the region has waned. With Trump back in power, Israel is expected to confidently pursue its objectives across multiple strategic fronts, leveraging U.S. backing for maximum effect. Although Trump is not inclined to entangle the U.S. in Middle Eastern conflicts, he is likely to apply pressure tactics to force concessions from Israel’s adversaries.
For Palestinians, Trump’s return represents a deepening of their plight. They recall that it was Trump who controversially recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, sidelined them with the “Deal of the Century,” downgraded diplomatic relations with the Palestine Liberation Organization, suspended economic and humanitarian aid, and withdrew from UNRWA due to its pro-Palestinian stances.
Iran will also face heightened military, diplomatic, and economic pressure, with an increased likelihood of direct conflict with Israel. Iranians cannot forget Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during his first term in office and the subsequent tightening of sanctions. Trump’s directive in 2020 that led to the U.S. military’s targeted killing of General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which triggered missile strikes against U.S. bases in the Middle East, remains etched in their collective memory.
Saudi Arabia, despite its relatively warm relationship with Trump, may have more reasons for concern than joy. Riyadh faces a complex dilemma between pragmatic and moral imperatives regarding the Palestinian cause. The kingdom has chosen to distance itself from Israel and pursue rapprochement with Iran. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is wary of serving as a “cash dispenser” under U.S. pressure and being coerced into buying American arms, a recurring pattern during Trump’s first term. The potential for a new U.S.-Saudi oil and gas rivalry, spurred by Trump’s plans to flood the market with American energy exports, could exacerbate tensions.
In the Asia-Pacific, responses are similarly mixed, even within individual U.S. partners. Compared to Biden, Trump prioritizes profit over partnership, exhibiting a greater focus on economic and trade benefits for the U.S., while downplaying military alliances and geostrategic commitments.
North Korea may harbor expectations that Trump’s return could lead to a shift from the Biden administration’s policy of strategic neglect, potentially rekindling the momentum of the three summits between Kim Jong-un and Trump. These summits, initially promising steps toward U.S.-North Korea normalization, were effectively stalled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, mutual distrust, and changes in political leadership. A renewed Trump administration could reignite dialogue that has, until now, remained an unfinished diplomatic endeavor.
In contrast, South Korea and Japan are likely apprehensive about Trump’s potential policies that could undermine their military alliances. Trump’s history of pressuring allies to increase defense spending and imposing tariffs on imported goods might compel these nations to recalibrate their strategic positions amidst U.S.-China rivalry, risking a precarious diplomatic balance.
Countries like Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and India are aware that Trump, known for his transactional approach, might deprioritize their strategic partnerships. This could shift the dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region, where economic interests are placed above security alliances.
China, labeled as the primary adversary by both major U.S. parties, has already experienced the Democratic Party’s assertive policies and Trump’s aggressive tactics during his previous term. Consequently, Beijing has remained composed in response to the White House’s change of leadership, neither cheering nor fearing Trump’s return. China is prepared for Trump’s strategic maneuvers, especially given his doctrine of caution in military engagements but willingness to escalate trade, technology, and financial confrontations. It anticipates that a second Trump term may not lead to military conflicts but could intensify economic warfare, including trade disputes and restrictions on Chinese investments.
On November 7, President Xi Jinping and Vice President Han Zheng sent congratulatory messages to President-elect Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, reaffirming China’s consistent principles in handling bilateral relations and expressing expectations for continued engagement. The development of U.S.-China relations under Trump’s leadership is poised to be the focal point of global attention, representing a key determinant of world peace and security.
Proponents of Taiwan independence are among the biggest losers in this shift in U.S. leadership. The Republican Party’s platform has remained silent on Taiwan, omitting any mention of its defense. Trump himself previously demanded that Taiwan contribute 10% of its GDP as a “protection fee,” signaling a transactional approach to its security.
With the Biden administration’s push to transition Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) into a “Made-in-America” entity, thereby eroding Taiwan’s core industries, further challenges loom. Elon Musk, who maintains a close rapport with Trump and supports the “One China” principle, recently urged his aerospace suppliers to cease sourcing components from Taiwan. This move underscores his recognition of the Chinese market’s importance and implies that Trump’s Taiwan policy may align with Musk’s strategic interests. Consequently, Taiwanese independence leaders, such as William Lai, are left in a precarious position, facing significant political and economic setbacks.
Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.
