According to a survey conducted by Japan’s Nikkei Asia, South Korea’s Maeil Business Newspaper, and China’s Global Times, nearly 40% of Chinese business executives expect the country’s relations with the US to improve if Donald Trump returns to the White House. This optimism contrasts with the views of their counterparts in Japan and South Korea, who are less hopeful about a Trump presidency.
In the survey, 38% of Chinese executives predicted that US-China relations would improve significantly or slightly after Trump’s inauguration, while only 8% anticipated a deterioration. During Trump’s first term, China successfully negotiated tariff reductions with the US, leading many Chinese business leaders to believe they could achieve better outcomes under a Trump administration compared to the current Biden administration.
Expectation of rapprochement with neighbors
Chinese business leaders also foresee stronger ties with neighboring countries. Chen Fengying, former director of the World Economic Research Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, noted, “As the Trump administration implements its ‘America First’ policies, Japan and South Korea will feel they cannot rely on the US and will increase economic cooperation with China.”
In contrast, 83% of Japanese executives expect no change in their country’s relations with the US, while only 2% predict improvement and 15% anticipate a decline. South Korean executives were the most pessimistic, with 40% expecting relations to worsen and only 14% foreseeing improvement.
Kang Seoggu, director of the research department at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, emphasized the need for South Korea to adapt to Trump’s trade policies: “South Korean companies should revamp their business structures, stabilize domestic politics as soon as possible, and adopt policies to support businesses.”
Global economic outlook
The survey also revealed differing views on the global economic outlook. In South Korea, 44% of respondents predicted a deteriorating global economy, while 22% expected growth. In contrast, 51% of Japanese executives and 43% of Chinese executives anticipated global economic expansion.
When asked about their own country’s economic prospects, nearly 80% of Japanese executives and 50% of Chinese executives expressed optimism. In South Korea, only 18% expected economic growth, while 42% predicted a downturn. These views may have been influenced by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief imposition of martial law and ongoing political instability.
The survey, conducted annually since 1995, gathered responses from 287 companies across China, Japan, and South Korea between December 2 and 18.
