UK and Russia edge closer to conflict over long-range drone supply

The latest dangerous escalation in relations between the United Kingdom and Russia is raising concerns that the two countries are on the brink of war.

The United Kingdom has begun supplying Ukraine with long-range uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and has authorised their use in strikes against targets deep inside Russia.

Kyiv is deploying these uncrewed aircraft specifically to strike Russian oil refineries.

In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Moscow would consider this as UK intervention in the war.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham travelled to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, by overnight train on his first foreign visit. Attending the country’s independence day celebrations, Burnham handed over classified defence plans that pave the way for the production of long-range missiles in Ukraine.

In late 2024, the United Kingdom for the first time granted Ukraine permission to use British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike targets in the Russian heartland.

At that time, a Storm Shadow strike against the Kursk region was initially confirmed.

As The Sunday Times recently confirmed, London gave the green light to this decision in full knowledge that Moscow would regard Kyiv’s use of long-range Western weapons as crossing one of its “red lines”.

However, the availability of the Storm Shadow was considered limited, particularly due to its unit cost of over 750,000 British pounds. Furthermore, the cruise missile has a range of only about 250 kilometres.

This year, the United Kingdom took a step further and also began supplying Ukraine with long-range uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs).

These are now being used not only in strikes against the Donbas and Crimea, but also against regions deep inside Russia.

The Nyan model UAV, produced by BAE Systems subsidiary Callen-Lenz, was used in strikes against targets near Belgorod.

Another was used in attacks on oil refineries in Volgograd and Yaroslavl, located approximately 340 and 700 kilometres from the border, respectively. This model and its manufacturer have so far been kept secret.

In April, the British government announced that it would supply Ukraine with approximately 120,000 uncrewed aerial vehicles manufactured in the United Kingdom throughout 2026. How many of these are long-range weapons is unknown.

Russia could henceforth declare the factories where these weapons are manufactured to be “legitimate targets”. Indeed, the Russian government had already done so in April. At that time, Moscow stated that the production and delivery of long-range weapons would “gradually turn the countries concerned into Ukraine’s strategic rear”. Consequently, these countries would be “dragged into a war with Russia”.

One of the Kremlin’s responses was to recall its ambassador to the United Kingdom. Andrei Kelin, who served as Russia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom for more than seven years, left his diplomatic post on 21 July.

Moscow has not submitted any candidate to the Foreign Office to replace him, and embassy staff reportedly have no knowledge of when a successor will be appointed.

According to The Times, there are concerns that the absence of a replacement has effectively downgraded diplomatic relations between the two countries, prompting fears of a complete breakdown in communication between Moscow and London.

A Russian Embassy spokesperson stated that Kelin had made “significant efforts to preserve relations and communication channels” with the United Kingdom, accusing the London government of choosing the “path of confrontation” with Russia.

The spokesperson continued:

“He left Britain in the hope that if the United Kingdom reassesses its policies toward our country, a more constructive and respectful dialogue could ultimately be restored. In the meantime, a chargé d’affaires has assumed leadership of the embassy.”

On Sunday, the embassy in London maintained that the Kremlin had no intention of “downgrading the level of diplomatic relations between the two countries”, arguing that “the state of Russia-UK relations in all spheres has fallen to an unprecedented low entirely on London’s initiative”.

Kelin’s departure was announced internally a month earlier, on 11 June, during a party held at the embassy to celebrate Russia Day.

On the same day in Moscow, British Ambassador Nigel Casey, together with French and German representatives, held a rare meeting with the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister to “condemn the Kremlin’s aggression in Ukraine”.

A defence source speaking to The Times stated that no secret backchannels had been established between military representatives.

A senior diplomatic source said the severing of dialogue was extremely worrying:

“It is particularly important to maintain these channels of communication between hostile states. Communication and de-escalation are the only way to prevent potentially dangerous scenarios from turning into catastrophe.”

A national security source warned that the move could be a deliberate signal from Moscow after Britain’s leading role in supporting Ukraine provoked fury in the Kremlin.

“They are essentially saying ‘you don’t matter’, and frankly London and the UK no longer mean anything,” the source said.

John Foreman, the former British military attaché in Moscow, said that a gap between ambassadors was not unprecedented, but added:

“However, the embassy’s sharp statement this week and the major deterioration in bilateral relations since 2019, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine, make me wonder whether they will permanently degrade the quality of relations this time.”

The German government is also supporting the production of long-range uncrewed aerial vehicles in Germany and their delivery to Ukraine to enable strikes deep into Russian territory. It remains unclear whether such deliveries have already taken place.

German companies have not only begun producing uncrewed aerial vehicles for the Ukrainian armed forces at German facilities in cooperation with Ukrainian firms; they also argue that these vehicles are safe from Russian attacks within Germany’s borders.

Furthermore, German-American startup Auterion and Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle manufacturer Airlogix are launching a joint venture to produce long-range uncrewed aerial vehicles at a facility near Munich.

A second factory will be built in eastern Germany. This is taking place at the explicit request of the government.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced in September 2025 that Berlin would intensify its “support for Ukraine’s procurement of long-range uncrewed aerial vehicles”. Approximately 300 million euros will reportedly be allocated for this purpose.

Regarding the timeline, it was stated in April that the first shipment of long-range drones from the Munich area to Ukraine was planned to take place within several months. Whether this has occurred is not yet clear.

This question is of major importance; for if so, German-manufactured drones may have already struck targets in the Russian heartland. In that case, concerns will emerge that Germany has also become a party to the war.