7 months have passed… The phrase “as much as necessary” used by American officials has been replaced by “as much as we can”… American Congressmen, who would have rushed to the Congressional benches in the morning to vote for the aid package if Netanyahu had been allergic to spring, were no longer able to show the same enthusiasm when it came to Ukraine. At least some of the Republicans…
Over time, this particular group started to get in the good graces of the rest of the Congress. They said, “You’re throwing Putin a lifeline.” “You’re siding with the enemies of the United States,” they said. They probably also said “the arms industry is hungry”, but they said it quietly. But this conservative faction did not say “Noah says Noah”. They even sacked Kevin McCarthy, their own Speaker, who had hinted that he would make a deal with Biden for future packages, without blinking an eye. Meanwhile, time was running out. Ukraine was running out of ammunition and was retreating a little further on the ground every day.
CIA director Burns issued a grim prescription: “If this package is not passed now, Ukraine will not live to see 2025”.
As you know, the leader of this group was Donald J. Trump. The populist leader argued that the unconditional money given to Ukraine should be spent on issues of direct concern to Americans, such as border security and infrastructure needs, and many thought this stubbornness would be short-lived. “After the first of the year, Ukraine will begin to feel the lack of ammunition,” the Pentagon said. Then it would be resolved somehow in December, wouldn’t it?
The meetings in Congress were very heated. The Republicans wanted extra money for border security and tax cuts for the rich. Both were unacceptable to the Democrats. Mike Johnson, the new Republican spokesman, who had arrived after a lot of fighting within his party, was stamping rejection on Biden’s monthly packages before he even opened his eyes.
By December, there was no sound from the package. By February, Johnson was still calling the new proposals “stillborn”. Ukrainian President Zelenski had already raised the tone of his complaint. At this rate, a Russian summer offensive could lead to a serious disaster.
Persuasion tours
If the four years of Trump’s rule have taught his opponents anything, it is that he is not a man of principle. If the conditions were right, the former president could be convinced of anything. They started with Israel. They put support for Israel and Ukraine in the same package. But who were they fooling? How many brave Democrats could there be who would say no to aid for Israel? Of course, this could not be an offer that would “scare” the Republicans in return for support for Ukraine. And it didn’t. Support for Israel reached the White House without much fuss at the Congressional tables.
The border security issue was a dangerous adventure for the Democrats. Caving in to the Republicans would have alienated their own voters. The Muslim vote had already been lost on the Israel issue, and Biden could not risk more.
The picture that now emerged was grave for Biden’s plans for Ukraine. Obviously, Trump’s intention was to prevent the approval of this package until after the elections. Thus, Biden would go into the elections with the Ukraine disaster on his back and would surely be defeated.
Then something happened. First, Mike Johnson’s language changed. Suddenly he started talking about “what would happen if we left Ukraine in the middle”. When Marjorie Taylor Greene (MTG), known as the radical Trumpist of Parliament, smelled “betrayal”, she gave Johnson an ultimatum: “Don’t forget McCarthy, don’t you dare!”.
But unlike MTG, Trump thought differently this time.
The former president said: “We’re tired of giving gifts.We might consider lending money to Ukraine”. Although this comment suggests that Trump was somehow persuaded, it still sounded odd. As the war entered its third year, Ukraine’s economy was in shambles. To pay its soldiers, it had to receive $8 billion a month from the West. If the war ended today, it would take $500 billion to rebuild the country. If I went to a bank in my situation and asked for a loan, I would probably be laughed at. But Donald Trump, the author of The Art of the Deal, is obviously convinced.
Who am I kidding, of course he wasn’t convinced. But he must have got something out of it. But what was it?
What does Trump want?
We are in a period where Biden and the Republicans, who were in favour of supporting Ukraine, have realised that nothing can be done despite Trump. Whether they like him or not, there is a populist figure they have to convince. To understand what Trump might want, we need to go back five years, to the Ukraine issue that started the debate about Trump’s impeachment in 2019.
While there was talk of Biden running in the 2020 election, Trump started going through old notebooks.Remember the famous Biden son laptop incident? Hunter Biden was working for an oligarch’s energy company in Ukraine and used the power of his father, who was Vice President at the time (i.e. the whole of the US), to get rid of the prosecutor who was after the company’s owner. Trump was aware of this at the time and made plans to beat Biden in the election.
Meanwhile, just like today, aid packages for Ukraine were waiting in Congress. The amount of aid was much smaller and the public did not focus on it. But the package was not approved simply because Trump did not want it.
He called Zelenski. “You had a very fair prosecutor.It’s a shame,” he said.He asked Zelenski to appoint a prosecutor to go after Biden. It was the only way he could get the aid he was holding up in Congress released. The incident escalated.Because of that speech, the question of Trump’s impeachment erupted.But it told us what Trump could demand in such a position.
Fast forward to today. The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump has had two important visits in a month. One was, of course, Johnson, the Speaker of the House, and the other was Andrzej Duda, the former President of Poland. Duda, a leader known as a Trumpite, was also a good friend of Trump’s. They must have thought that a right-wing populist would understand the language of the right-wing populist, so they organised such a meeting. Duda explained the gravity of the situation to Trump. Johnson found a more effective vein.
In fact, Trump said: “If I am elected, I will bring peace in one day”. How would he do that if Ukraine were defeated today? Ukraine had to hold out at least until Trump took office. For some reason, CIA director William Burns said the package would keep Ukraine alive until 2025. If Trump wins, his inauguration will be in January.
Before we forget, there are also Trump’s ongoing lawsuits. It is rumoured that the money he has earmarked for his campaign could run out as a result of these lawsuits. Trump may have made a deal over Ukraine in order to avoid both financial damage and the blockage of his electoral path.
In conclusion, although Trump is popular today because of his isolationist and “America First” ideology, his policies are based on his personal interests. While 101 Republicans supported the package that Trump did not oppose, 112 voted against it. So despite everything, the isolationist wing does not even listen to Trump when it needs to. The former president’s order of importance is as follows: Trump first, then America, and Israel can squeeze in depending on the situation. Ironically, even in this equation, America is ahead compared to Biden’s order of importance.
