Upcoming Modi-Putin summit: India’s primary objective is expanding its S-400 fleet

India is preparing to host Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 4-5 for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit. This will be Putin’s first visit to India since December 2021. The Defense Ministers of India and Russia are also scheduled to meet in New Delhi on December 4 as part of Putin’s official visit. The agenda for the upcoming Modi-Putin Summit is set within a comprehensive framework covering issues ranging from energy and defense to trade and investment; while the summit may be instrumental in finalizing new agreements, these will likely be kept confidential.

India’s primary objective at the summit is to present a major S-400 expansion package to Russia; in parallel, Delhi is preparing a plan to modernize its Sukhoi-30MKI fleet. Delhi relies heavily on Russian S-400 systems to strengthen its air defense capabilities. The Indian Air Force (IAF) evaluated the performance of these systems during “Operation Sindoor” as “extremely good,” emphasizing the S-400’s role as a “game changer” against Pakistan. It is expected that Delhi will also negotiate for additional surface-to-air missiles for its existing S-400 units. A separate proposal is on the table for S-400 missiles with ranges of 120 km, 200 km, 250 km, and 380 km to replenish stocks and bolster reserves. All of this serves as a concrete sign of the confidence Delhi places in these systems.

Furthermore, there is a plan to modernize the Indian Air Force’s 259 Sukhoi fighter jets. While the modernization is expected to be conducted domestically, Russia is anticipated to contribute in specific areas. Accordingly, an upgrade plan for the initial batch of 84 Su-30MKIs will likely be brought to the table. With this upgrade plan, India aims to extend their combat relevance for another thirty years through new radars, avionics, long-range weapons, and multi-sensor fusion.

Ensuring the creation of supply and reserve lines, a total of five additional S-400 squadrons, missile procurements, and Su-30MKI upgrades are main agenda items on the table. All of this indicates that Delhi’s dependence on Russian platforms for its air defense and combat structure continues. However, due to delays linked to the Ukraine crisis, Russia has not yet delivered the final two S-400 squadrons from the 2018 agreement. It is reported that Moscow has conveyed to Delhi that these will be delivered by November 2026, yet the Indian Air Force remains cautious. In June of this year, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov met in China on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Defense Ministers’ Meeting, where Moscow reiterated its commitment to the timely delivery of the S-400s. India had initially ordered five S-400 units, three of which have been delivered. The remaining two are scheduled for delivery in 2026 and 2027.

From Delhi’s perspective, the S-400 system has proven its strategic importance in recent Indian operations, including Operation Sindoor, and has been officially named the Sudarshan Chakra by Indian forces, inspired by the mythological weapon of Lord Vishnu. Additionally, the Ministry of Defense had reached an agreement with an Indian firm to establish a Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facility for the S-400 system within the country. Consequently, Moscow is expected to establish an MRO facility in India. Narendra Modi, who previously announced the Sudarshan Chakra Mission—an ambitious ten-year initiative to strengthen India’s national security architecture—during his Independence Day speech, explained this in detail last Friday. He stated that the mission aims to build an impenetrable protective wall around key national, industrial, and public sector assets, adding: “If the enemy dares to show audacity, India’s Sudarshan Chakra will destroy them.”

Also on India’s agenda is the procurement and co-production of Russia’s next-generation S-500 system, which is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at ranges of up to 600 km and air targets at ranges of up to 400 km. The Defense Ministers are also scheduled to discuss shipbuilding and jointly developed weapon systems. Meanwhile, the Russian Sukhoi-57 fifth-generation fighter jet, which Moscow presents as a rival to the American F-35, is also a topic of discussion. However, India, which is currently calculating its moves regarding air defense systems and the improvement of existing fleets, does not yet seem to have made a decision regarding politically sensitive fifth-generation fighter jet commitments—namely the Sukhoi-57, F-35, or any competitor aircraft—that will define its long-term Air Force capabilities.

Regarding the co-production of S-500 air defense systems and the Su-57 fighter jet, negotiations between the two countries appear to be in the early stages and will take some time to materialize. Russia, which has been marketing the S-500s to India since 2021, had stated that India would be the “potential” first foreign buyer of this system. However, Moscow’s priority is undoubtedly to meet the needs of its own armed forces; therefore, S-500 exports seem like a distant possibility at the moment. Meanwhile, mass production of missiles for the S-500 system began in mid-2021, while the mass production of the air defense systems themselves was announced in April 2022.

Regarding the Su-57 issue, the paradox is that India withdrew from the joint fifth-generation fighter program with Russia in 2018, citing the jet’s insufficient stealth and supercruise capabilities, as well as limited technology transfer. However, considering the need to address capability gaps and fleet strength deficits, the Indian Air Force is not dismissing the potential acquisition of the Su-57 as an “interim” solution. Sensing the right moment, Moscow is showing a willingness to meet Delhi’s demands, including unlimited technology transfer and the production of the jets on Indian soil. Moscow is already supplying Su-57s to foreign partners; Algeria received the first two of 12 jets under a 2019 agreement. Despite these marketing efforts, given that Russia uses the aircraft only to a limited extent, there are still many doubts in Delhi regarding the reliability of the Su-57. Therefore, even if India decides to make a deal, coordinating technical details and responding to the Air Force’s specific requirements would likely be a long process.

Delhi continues to weigh its relationship with its traditional defense partner, Russia, against its relationship with America, which displayed a more transactional attitude under the President Donald Trump administration, while Washington continues to exert pressure on countries purchasing Russian energy and weapons. The upcoming Modi-Putin summit offers an opportunity for India and Russia to consolidate their gains in energy, defense, and trade, despite external pressures complicating the trajectory of bilateral cooperation. Since 2022, energy has been the main driver of the Delhi-Moscow partnership, with Russia becoming India’s largest source of crude oil. Despite several rounds of sanctions, Russian companies have continued to ship oil to Indian refineries. While recent American restrictions on Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, have complicated the supply business slightly, it is unlikely that these measures will deal a fatal blow to the oil connection between Delhi and Moscow. Russia believes the oil flow will find a way and relies on India’s ability to continue indirect purchases through a series of intermediaries and workaround mechanisms. Delhi is not keen on bowing to Washington’s pressure in areas that align with its national interests, and publicly traded companies are reiterating their intention to continue importing Russian oil from non-sanctioned entities. In other words, even if the process becomes more complex, both countries will attempt to maintain their mutually beneficial engagements.

However, with the latest American sanctions coming into effect on November 21, it is highly probable that Delhi will reduce its oil-related transactions with Moscow. While this is not something Delhi would want to announce upon Putin’s arrival in India, it is the most likely scenario for 2026. Russian decision-makers would certainly want Delhi to remain a long-term oil customer, which would help Moscow stabilize budget projections and balance its growing dependence on China as its largest export destination. For this reason, Moscow is preparing a range of measures, from significantly higher discounts on oil shipments to deals made through newly established companies and intermediaries, maintaining the hope that business will return to normal after a certain interval. Moscow is also eager to expand civil nuclear cooperation with India, with Rosatom proposing the localization of large and small-scale nuclear power plant projects. In addition to completing Phases II and III of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in Tamil Nadu, the Russian company has long been suggesting that Delhi start a new plant. Another proposal from Rosatom is to build small modular reactors (SMRs) at coal plants that have limited grid infrastructure or are being phased out. Although the company signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Maharashtra government for thorium-based small modular reactors in April 2025*, its implementation remains uncertain as Delhi is considering procuring similar technologies from other partners like America and France. Delhi also continues to cooperate with Moscow on the construction of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant in Bangladesh, where Rosatom procures some necessary equipment for the project from Indian contractors.

Another focus of the upcoming summit will be discussions on how to expand trade and industrial cooperation. Moscow is expected to present a series of measures that would grant Indian companies greater access to its market, with the aim of increasing India’s exports of machinery, telecommunications equipment, chemicals, food, and pharmaceutical products. The acceleration of India’s trade talks with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) appears to be an extension of these bilateral measures. The 18-month work plan agreed upon under the Terms of Reference signed in August 2025* involves opening new markets to Indian micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)—a vital sector for Delhi—as well as farmers and fishermen.

Meanwhile, banking integration between the two countries is expanding. Some of the largest Russian banks are increasing their assets and operations in India, and direct payments in national currencies are dominating bilateral trade. To deepen financial interaction and promote the integration of payment and financial messaging systems, the Central Bank of Russia plans to open a representative office in India. Regarding expected summit outcomes, Delhi is also expected to announce the establishment of a urea production facility in Russia to ensure a stable supply of fertilizer. In the civil aviation sector, Hindustan Aeronautics has signed an agreement with Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation to produce the SJ-100, a twin-engine narrow-body passenger aircraft designed for short-haul flights. Moscow is also making various proposals to Delhi to deepen maritime cooperation. These proposals include the establishment of shipbuilding and ship repair clusters with Russian participation at the Mumbai and Chennai ports. Other initiatives in this field include the joint construction of non-nuclear icebreakers, crew training, cooperation on scientific activities in ocean research, and Russian support for the development of green shipping.

All these issues and more will be on the table; however, as both countries grapple with geopolitical challenges and face external obstacles hindering their relations, the summit will remain heavily symbolic, and the priority of converting Delhi and Moscow’s intentions into working agreements will remain just that—a priority. Meanwhile, some projects in the pipeline are designed to highlight the resilience of bilateral relations, while others will be deliberately kept low-profile to avoid appearing on sanctions radars. The ideal time for a revitalized India-Russia partnership is still being awaited…