US-Canada diplomatic rift opens door for German defense giant TKMS

The escalating tension between the US administration under Donald Trump and its northern neighbor, Canada, has provided the German defense industry with a strategic opening to expand its foothold in Ottawa.

According to a report by German Foreign Policy, warship manufacturer TKMS hopes to secure a multi-billion-dollar submarine order from Canada, banking on Ottawa’s efforts to become more independent from the US.

In Canada, previous deliberations regarding the purchase of new submarines from the US have been swept off the table following the Trump administration’s tariff offensives and threats of annexation. TKMS is now capitalizing on this shift.

Since its spin-off from ThyssenKrupp last October, the German defense group has continued its upward trajectory, setting new records in sales and order backlogs. It is also actively planning to acquire its neighboring shipyard, German Naval Yards Kiel, which is currently owned by the French company CMN Naval.

The ThyssenKrupp Group still retains a 51% majority stake. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, sales rose by approximately 9% to €2.2 billion, while net profit climbed from €88 million to €108 million.

Simultaneously, the company secured €8.8 billion in new orders—a six-fold increase compared to the previous year. The total order backlog now stands at a record high of approximately €18.2 billion.

To meet this boom in demand, the group plans to ramp up production at the Wismar shipyard, acquired in 2022, and increase the workforce there by roughly 1,500 employees. By the end of 2025, 300 new staff members had already been recruited.

According to TKMS’s own data, the company currently employs about 9,100 people, one-third of whom work in Kiel.

TKMS recently joined the MDax, the second-tier stock index following the Dax, which comprises Germany’s 40 largest companies. Its share price surged from €60 to nearly €100 in October.

TKMS even considers a promotion to the DAX—becoming the second “pure-play” defense company to join the index after Rheinmetall—to be within the realm of possibility.

New acquisitions targeted by TKMS could contribute to this growth. The group recently submitted a takeover bid for German Naval Yards Kiel. This shipyard primarily builds corvettes and frigates, alongside yachts.

Today, German Naval Yards Kiel belongs to the French shipbuilder CMN Naval, with whom TKMS has been in takeover talks since last year. The yard employs about 400 people in Kiel.

A potential takeover would further concentrate German warship construction, following Rheinmetall’s acquisition of Naval Vessels Lürssen, the warship division of the Bremen-based Lürssen shipyard.

CEO Oliver Burkhard stated that, in the context of shipyard regrouping, the company should serve as a “consolidation hub”—not just in Germany, but particularly across Europe.

Multi-billion-euro orders are also originating from the German Navy. According to one report, the German Navy intends to order new frigates from TKMS valued at up to €7.8 billion.

TKMS is currently in the process of strengthening its international market position and continuing its climb in the global defense rankings. Last year, the company moved from 63rd to 61st place in SIPRI’s list of the world’s top 100 defense companies, remaining Germany’s second-largest arms manufacturer after Rheinmetall.

While several US financial groups hold stakes in Rheinmetall ranging from 3.8% to 7%, this is not the case for TKMS: In addition to ThyssenKrupp’s 51% stake, 10% is held by the Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Foundation, and 39% is publicly traded.

TKMS CEO Burkhard does not anticipate a rise as rapid as that of Rheinmetall, which aims to become one of the world’s largest arms producers. In a statement made last autumn, Burkhard noted that compared to TKMS, “Rheinmetall’s business is faster and more fragmented than ours” and “feeds on hot conflicts.”

Only a portion of the orders sustaining TKMS’s growth comes from the German Armed Forces. In the past fiscal year, the German Armed Forces ordered four additional Class 212 CD submarines, which are being procured in parallel by the German and Norwegian navies.

Additionally, TKMS signed a contract to modernize the six Class 212 A submarines currently in the German Navy’s fleet. According to a report, the German Federal Ministry of Defense is currently drafting a preliminary agreement for the delivery of TKMS frigates.

The backdrop to this is the failure of the F126 frigate construction project, which had been planned for years under the leadership of Dutch shipyard Damen Naval; Berlin halted this project in November. It remains unclear whether the work will be continued by Naval Vessels Lürssen or Rheinmetall.

Reports indicate that the German Navy now wishes to order MEKO A-200 DEU frigates from TKMS. This is driven by the firm intention to ensure new frigates are ready by 2029 at the latest. Last November, the Bundestag earmarked €7.8 billion for the rapid procurement of an alternative vessel to the F126 frigate.

Furthermore, there are significant orders from abroad. In the past fiscal year, Singapore ordered two additional Type 218SG submarines. A decision by the Indian government regarding the procurement of new submarines for the Indian Navy is expected by the end of March. TKMS is viewed as the favorite, though it would be required to build the proposed Class 214 submarines jointly with the Indian shipbuilding group Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDL), thereby sharing the approximate €7 billion purchase price.

TKMS is also bidding to supply submarines to Canada. In this scenario, the German-Norwegian Class 212 CD submarines could be selected; this is considered a strong option, given that Germany, Norway, and Canada have been cooperating under a “security partnership for the North Atlantic” at the naval level since 2024.

Ottawa’s previous consideration of buying new submarines from the US has fallen off the agenda, primarily for political reasons, as US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on Canada and has even threatened to annex the country, turning it into the 51st US state.

If the contract is signed, TKMS promises extensive offset agreements. While this is a common practice in the arms industry, it is particularly notable in this case as both parties—Canada and Germany—are striving to become more independent from the US.

Norway appears likely to be included in the deal as well: “We are also working with other companies from the German and Norwegian economies here,” said TKMS CEO Burkhard.

According to reports, the deal involves “potential investment commitments in the fields of rare earth elements, mining, artificial intelligence, and battery production for the automotive sector.” For Canada, this is part of a broader economic offensive that also includes intensified cooperation with China, among other strategic moves.

However, in the defense sector, European arms manufacturers—particularly the Germans—can expect greater opportunities in the future.