US drafts post-war Middle East strategy focused on Iran

The US administration is working on a post-war strategy focused on containing Iran and expanding the normalisation of relations between Israel and its neighbours.

According to Axios, although the plan remains in the draft stage, it is intended to guide the US approach to the Middle East once the war with Iran concludes and across the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term in office.

Two major events cast a shadow over the planning process: the Israeli elections scheduled for 27 October and the US midterm elections in November.

US officials state that initial work on the strategy is being conducted both at senior political levels within the Trump administration and at an interagency working level.

According to sources, Trump has held two meetings with senior advisers in recent weeks where the plan was discussed and concepts were floated.

In private conversations, Trump reportedly said he is working on “something much bigger” in the Middle East following the war with Iran.

According to sources, three primary elements have been put forward as prospective components of the strategy:

Establishing a regional alliance among US allies, guaranteed by the US, in order to contain Iran.

Pursuing a joint effort to bring the regional fallout of the 7 October 2023 Al-Aqsa Flood operation toward a conclusion by securing the next phase of Trump’s Gaza plan, signing a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the Israel-Lebanon agreement.

Expanding the Abraham Accords and reaching a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The Trump administration hopes that the new Israeli government formed after the 27 October elections will be willing and able to cooperate on the post-war strategy.

However, some US officials emphasise that Trump will push for the implementation of this strategy regardless of the Israeli election results, even if the vote leads to political deadlock.

A source familiar with the process stated that drafting the strategy would take several more weeks. “They are working on it, but it is not finished yet,” the source said, adding:

“The aim here is to connect many moving parts in the region; how to build a regional alliance after the war. It is not yet clear whether all US allies in the region will participate in this process.”