US hopes for AI-driven victory in Iran conflict remain unfulfilled

US expectations of a frictionless “contactless” conflict with Iran through the deployment of artificial intelligence have largely failed to materialize, according to a recent analysis.

In an assessment for The New York Times, Marc Gustafson, a former director of the White House Situation Room, and Justin Kosslyn, a consultant at Eurasia Group, argue that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East demonstrates that technological superiority does not guarantee a swift or decisive victory.

The US administration has long acknowledged that a war with Iran would be exceptionally difficult due to the country’s rugged and mountainous terrain. The authors noted that this geography is ideally suited for concealing vast military infrastructure, leading all examined conflict scenarios to predict an inevitable ground operation that would result in American casualties.

Washington’s primary expectation throughout this process was that artificial intelligence would significantly simplify the remote management of warfare. According to The New York Times report, these technologies have indeed altered the US approach to combat. The real-time processing of intelligence data using AI allows experts to accelerate decision-making and execute precision strikes.

The rapid processing of data obtained through reconnaissance drones, satellites, and radio signal interception now enables instantaneous adjustments to the trajectories and speeds of missiles based on incoming information.

In February of this year, it was publicly revealed that the Pentagon utilized Claude, an AI developed by Anthropic, in its operational preparations. The chatbot was specifically noted for its use during a US operation aimed at the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The authors observed that the integration of AI with increasingly precise weaponry and comprehensive surveillance capabilities has transformed the US military’s capacity for remote combat, stating that the shift is “not just a fantasy.”

However, Gustafson and Kosslyn argued that despite this high-tech approach to warfare, American strategy remains limited. They emphasized that the US military cannot fully control the entirety of Iranian territory, citing the status of Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as a primary example.

Shahed-type UAVs have proven highly effective in strikes against targets across the Middle East. These assets have been used in attacks on US military facilities in the region and to destroy or damage production plants of critical importance to Arab nations. The report noted that these regular attacks have led to the depletion of missile stocks for air defense systems.

The Shahed is known as a family of UAVs developed by the Shahed Aviation Industries company for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. These vehicles are recognized in modern military conflicts as inexpensive, mass-produced kamikaze drones.

The New York Times authors highlighted the high mobility of the launched drones and short-range missiles. They noted that since these UAVs can be launched from the back of a truck, it is virtually impossible to track every Iranian vehicle.

Furthermore, the authors stated that a US strike on a school, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of civilians, proved that even high-tech intelligence does not eliminate the risks of flawed data and incorrect decision-making. CBS News previously reported that the attack in question was carried out based on outdated information.

The authors concluded that while “artificial intelligence has made it easier to start a war, it has not yet made a quick victory possible.”

Since the onset of hostilities with Iran, Washington has not ruled out the possibility of conducting a ground operation on the territory of the Islamic Republic.

In a speech delivered on March 2, US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would do whatever is necessary to secure a victory.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that the US is considering the deployment of Marines to seize control of one or more islands off Iran’s southern coast to restore maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.