US influence shifts European energy corridors from an east-west to a north-south axis

The long-dominant, Germany-centric East-West energy infrastructure in Eastern Europe is reorienting toward a North-South axis under the guidance of the US.

The German government is attempting to sign long-term contracts for gas imports from Qatar to become independent of LNG imported from the US. German Minister for Economic Affairs Katherina Reiche held talks on this matter in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on Wednesday (November 19).

According to industry data, 94% of the liquefied natural gas currently imported through Germany’s four terminals in the North and Baltic Seas comes from the US.

The construction of LNG terminals in Europe and the pipelines that distribute gas from them is politically and economically supported by Washington. Preparations for this purpose culminated in the Three Seas Initiative in 2015. The Trump administration is also using this initiative to achieve its goal of “global energy dominance.”

North-South lines in energy supply

The US has been trying for years to increase its LNG exports to the EU by supporting the expansion of the necessary infrastructure, including terminals and their connecting pipelines. This applies to the LNG terminals in Poland, Lithuania, and Croatia that have become operational in recent years, which are bringing increasing amounts of US gas ashore.

Currently, plans to expand deliveries through Greece are being accelerated. In addition to the terminal on the island of Revythousa near Athens, a second terminal became operational last year in Alexandroupolis, near the Turkish border, with three more terminals planned.

Furthermore, the “Vertical Corridor,” a pipeline infrastructure that transports natural gas northward from terminals in Greece, is also being expanded. This corridor extends on one hand to Hungary via Bulgaria and Serbia or Romania, and on the other hand to Ukraine via Bulgaria and Moldova. The first deliveries to Ukraine were made this summer.

The northern corridor is largely based on the old pipeline infrastructure that formerly distributed Russian gas, but it also requires the construction of some additional elements.

The importance of the Three Seas Initiative in energy supply

The pipelines, extending largely in a north-south direction from liquefied natural gas terminals, are part of a long-term strategy officially launched in 2015 by then-Polish President Andrzej Duda and then-Croatian President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović: the Three Seas Initiative.

This initiative aims to augment the predominantly unilateral east-west infrastructure of Eastern and Southeastern Europe, which is oriented toward the EU’s center, Germany, with north-south components, thereby facilitating the region’s independent development without reliance on Germany.

The Washington-based Atlantic Council had laid the groundwork for this initiative by preparing a detailed study titled Completing Europe, which discussed the creation of a “north-south corridor stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Adriatic and Black Seas.” The initiative’s name is derived from these three seas. The Atlantic Council also involved Central Europe Energy Partners (CEEP), a lobby organization consisting of Polish, Lithuanian, and Romanian energy companies, in this study.

US energy dominance shapes corridors in Europe

The cessation of Russian gas purchases, imposed by the EU in its power struggle with Russia, has made it easier for the US to shift Europe’s natural gas supply from an east-west to a north-south orientation—that is, from liquefied natural gas terminals in the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean to the continent’s center.

From the perspective of the Trump administration, which is pushing this change even further, this situation helps the US achieve “energy dominance.” Washington is focused on increasing the production of oil and especially natural gas to accelerate the transition from renewable energy sources to fossil fuels, not just domestically but globally.

The conservative Heritage Foundation, which is preparing Trump’s second-term program, believes this will enable them to become independent of China’s green energy supply chains and gain “geopolitical leverage against friends and foes.”

Shift in energy corridor is to Germany’s detriment

The shift of the EU’s natural gas supply from an east-west to a north-south direction has also led to a loss of influence for Germany. Thanks especially to the Nord Stream pipelines, Germany was once an influential hub for the distribution of Russian gas in Europe. Today, however, it only transfers limited quantities of US gas from its terminals in the North and Baltic Seas to Austria and the Czech Republic.

With the EU’s decision to end Russian gas purchases by 2027, the importance of terminals and north-south pipelines is growing, although this importance is expected to decline again in the long term.

According to IEEFA estimates, the transition to renewable energies will reduce the EU’s gas consumption by up to 15% by 2030, which means a decrease in demand for US gas. Of course, this is contingent on the EU continuing its transition to renewable energy.

At the recently co-hosted Transatlantic Energy Cooperation Partnership (P-TEC) conference in Athens, US Assistant Secretary of Energy Chris Wright emphasized that the EU should reconsider its decision to shift toward wind and solar power.

Goal of more gas from Qatar

The German government wants to purchase more LNG from Qatar in the future. This information was confirmed by Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Katherina Reiche during her visit to Doha on Wednesday.

The German government is particularly focused on long-term supply contracts. Andreas Feicht, CEO of Rhein Energie, Germany’s third-largest energy supplier, who accompanied Reiche to Doha, explained that these contracts could be secured at more favorable prices than short-term ones, potentially bringing prices closer to the extremely low costs of Russian pipeline gas that Germany had procured for decades.

However, some challenges arise here. If Qatar supplies liquefied natural gas to the EU, it risks violating the supply chain directive and facing penalties. One reason for this is that the directive requires companies operating in the EU to submit plans on how they will achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

During Reiche’s visit to Doha, it was reaffirmed that in such a case, Qatar would sell its LNG on other continents. It remains unclear how this conflict will be resolved.

The US remains Germany’s main supplier

Increasing LNG imports from Qatar is seen as the most viable way to escape the overwhelming dominance of the US in this field. The US has significantly increased its LNG production in recent years, and this increase has accelerated since President Donald Trump took office.

In October, the US became the first country in the world to export over 10 million tons of LNG in a single month. This was made possible by Europe increasing its purchases from 6.22 million tons in September to 6.9 million tons in October.

Thus, Europe purchased approximately 69% of American LNG, with the largest contribution coming from Germany. Currently, rapidly increasing amounts of liquefied gas are being pumped ashore from four terminals: two in Wilhelmshaven on the North Sea, one in Brunsbüttel, and one in Rügen on the Baltic Sea.

According to the state-appointed terminal company DET, the terminal on the Elbe River in Stade will become operational in the second quarter of 2026 at the earliest. This terminal will be the fifth floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) to receive LNG by sea.

ReGas and Hoegh plan to develop the Baltic Sea port of Mukran into a terminal for the production and import of green ammonia and hydrogen. Gascade will connect this terminal with its customers once the project is realized.

This volume currently constitutes 13.25% of Germany’s natural gas imports. According to data from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), 94% of Germany’s LNG imports come from the US.

In the first half of 2025, Europe imported approximately 57% of its LNG from the US; in October, this figure reached 60% and continues to rise.