US intelligence weighs arming Iranian Kurdish factions to incite internal unrest

US intelligence officials are reportedly formulating a plan to arm Iranian Kurdish factions, aiming to incite an uprising against the current Tehran administration.

According to sources familiar with the matter speaking to CNN, the Trump administration—while concurrently executing strikes against Iran in coordination with Israel—is engaged in active discussions with Iranian opposition factions and Kurdish leaders in Iraq regarding the provision of military assistance.

An Iranian Kurdish source indicated that Kurdish forces are expected to participate in a ground operation planned for Western Iran in the coming days. “We believe we have seized a significant opportunity,” the source stated, noting that these militia groups are anticipating support from the US and Israel.

Three separate sources speaking to Reuters confirmed that Kurdish militias have been in contact with the US regarding the coordination of potential attacks against Iranian security forces in Western Iran.

Details of strategic plan remain unconfirmed

Sources indicate the plan’s primary objective is to create a viable environment for domestic unrest among Iranians opposed to the Islamic Republic following the targeting of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials in US-Israeli strikes. However, reports suggest that a final decision regarding the timing and execution of such an operation remains pending.

Kurdish groups are reportedly soliciting military aid from the US, while leaders in Erbil and Baghdad have engaged in high-level discussions with the Trump administration in recent days. Previous reporting by Axios indicated that President Trump held a telephone conversation with Iraqi Kurdish leaders on Sunday, during which potential military cooperation regarding operations against Iran was discussed.

Two sources confirmed that Kurdish forces are engaged in negotiations with the US regarding the acquisition of arms via the CIA. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the CIA’s role in the operational planning, whether the agency is facilitating weapons transfers, or if US personnel would be deployed alongside Kurdish groups into Iranian territory.

The CIA declined to comment on the matter, while the White House and the Pentagon did not respond to inquiries. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) also did not respond to requests for comment.

Efficacy of operations on Iranian soil remains contested

Analysts assess that any operation launched from Iraq against Iran would require substantial US military and intelligence support.

According to the Pentagon, two US bases in Erbil are currently utilized to support the international coalition against ISIS. Conversely, the extent to which Iranian Kurdish groups could effectively operate within Iranian territory remains uncertain; the fighters within these organizations possess varying levels of combat experience.

A source speaking to CNN noted that the strategy relies on Kurdish armed forces engaging Iranian security personnel, thereby creating the necessary volatility to facilitate domestic uprisings among unarmed protesters in Iranian cities.

Iran strikes opposition positions with UAVs

Six days prior to the commencement of hostilities, five Kurdish groups announced the formation of the “Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan” to coordinate opposition to Iran. Tehran confirmed that it struck targets belonging to these groups yesterday.

In a statement, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it had conducted an operation against these groups within the borders of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) using 30 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), claiming that all intended targets were neutralized.

The Tehran administration has warned of a “decisive response” against any party hosting or executing activities that target Iran’s national security. According to the IRGC, the groups positioned within KRG territory were planning to infiltrate Iranian soil to execute sabotage operations. The IRGC further reported that the operation was executed successfully following “sensitive intelligence gathering,” and that the 30 UAVs struck their designated coordinates with precision.