US intelligence weighs Iranian response to potential Trump unilateral victory declaration

US intelligence agencies are evaluating potential Iranian responses to a scenario in which President Donald Trump declares a unilateral victory in the ongoing conflict, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The assessment is being conducted at the instruction of senior Trump administration officials, Reuters reported, citing two US officials and an additional source.

Officials indicated that the White House aims to understand the potential ramifications of a decision to withdraw. According to the report, the administration is concerned about the possible negative impact such a move could have on Republican results in the upcoming midterm elections in November.

Reuters noted that a final decision has yet to be reached and that the possibility remains for Trump to resume military operations.

However, it is assessed that a rapid de-escalation of tensions could alleviate political pressure on Trump, even if such a move serves to strengthen Iran’s regional position.

Intelligence sources have been analyzing Tehran’s stance regarding a potential US declaration of victory since the commencement of strikes against the Islamic Republic.

One source who spoke to the agency stated that if Trump declares victory and withdraws troops from the region, the conclusion reached is that Tehran would perceive and portray this scenario as its own victory.

On the other hand, should the US president declare victory while maintaining a military presence in the region, it is anticipated that the Iranians would view the move as a negotiating tactic; however, this situation would not necessarily bring the war to an end.

Reported options include the resumption of airstrikes targeting Iranian military and political leaders.

Nevertheless, sources indicated that the most comprehensive option—a ground operation against the Iranian mainland—appears less likely now than it did several weeks ago.

Liz Lyons, the CIA’s Director of Public Affairs, stated in a comment on the matter that the agency is not aware of the intelligence community assessment in question.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly emphasized that the US is continuing negotiations with the Iranians, stating, “We will not rush to make a bad deal.”

Kelly reminded that President Trump has clearly stated he will only sign an agreement that prioritizes US national security and will never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.