US-Israeli aggression and Iran’s strategy

The assaults of US imperialism and Israeli Zionism against Iran continue unabated. Through this conflict, the United States is broadcasting a message not only to the world but specifically to China. Iran is known for its staunch opposition to the US, and it distinguishes itself as a vital oil supplier and a key trade partner that China holds in high regard. Yet, no matter how the US maneuvers, its global influence is no longer what it once was; it is in decline. Whether it be its thuggery and piracy in Venezuela or its aggression and barbarism in Iran, none of these actions can mask the retreat of US hegemonic capability.

The primary consequences of the ongoing conflict can be outlined as follows:

First, the shield of immunity Israel has long held—grounded in the victimhood perpetually invoked regarding the genocide committed by Nazi Germany during World War II—is no longer valid. The Israeli genocide in Palestine, its aggression in Lebanon, and its barbarism in Iran have caused the world to turn against Israel, including within the West, and have led to harsh condemnations globally. Spain’s stance against the US-Israel duo’s attacks on Iran, the reactions against Israel across a broad spectrum in the US—ranging from military veterans to university presidents—and the objections voiced in the US Congress against the US joining Israel in attacking Iran all warrant careful examination. In Europe, too, the former sympathy for Israel has evaporated among the public, if not yet among the political elites.

Second, it is one thing for opponents of the Iranian regime to have justifiable and legitimate grievances regarding freedom, human rights, democratic participation, women’s rights, public oppression, corruption, unemployment, poor governance, and the high cost of living; it is quite another to look to the aggression of US imperialism and Israeli Zionism for salvation. The Iranian people will bring democracy to their country solely through their own struggle, not through the attacks and interventions of US imperialism.

Third, it is noteworthy that US President Trump has sharply criticized Spain—a country that does not toe the line with his own and, furthermore, objects to US aggression—declaring that he will cut off trade with it. It is equally significant that he has condemned the United Kingdom, one of the two strategic partners of the US (the other being Israel), for failing to follow the policies demanded by the US. Germany, occupying the position of leader of the European Union, has once again demonstrated, by trailing behind the US, that it possesses no global ambition, courage, or independent will. It has been seen once again that the European Union has no influence in resolving any global crisis. The European Union possesses neither gravitas nor deterrence, neither efficacy nor prestige.

Fourth, the figures proposed by Westerners and liberals opposed to the current Iranian regime as an alternative are the son of the former Shah of Iran, Pahlavi. Placing hope in a monarchy and a dynasty to bring democracy to Iran has exposed the hypocrisy and lack of principles of these Westerners and liberals, serving as a testament to their desperation.

Fifth, it has been demonstrated once again that Iran possesses not only the technology, production capacity, and target accuracy, but also the courage, will, determination, and capability to strike Israel. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s energy trade passes—is also a significant step. This move immediately drove up oil and natural gas prices, causing panic in Western economies and in nations dependent on external energy supplies.

Sixth, by targeting US bases in the Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia and the British base in the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus, Iran has delivered a critical message to Arab nations, the British, and the Greek Cypriots alike. It has shown that if they attack Iran or open their territories to the aggressors for attacks against Iran, they will become targets themselves.

Seventh, the US’s efforts to squeeze Iran on multiple fronts and divide the strength of the Iranian military by persuading Kurds in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq to attack Iran have not yielded the expected results. The US-backed separatist Kurdish organization inside Iran, PJAK, is an imperialist-guided terrorist organization, just like the PKK.

Eighth, the US desires for Türkiye and Azerbaijan to attack Iran. Türkiye and Azerbaijan, as Turkic states, are particularly important due to their land borders with Iran. They are significant because of the high ethnic Turkic population within Iran, the Shia population of Azerbaijan, and the fact that both countries share land borders with Iran. Furthermore, Azerbaijan maintains very close relations with Israel. The border that Türkiye shares with Iran, where it possesses three border gates, is our oldest border. The Treaty of Qasr-e Shirin of 1639 is the agreement that largely defined today’s borders.

Ninth, the actors within Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” or what is termed the “Shia Crescent,” such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, have engaged in conflict with Israel. The Houthis in Yemen, who have emerged as prominent proxy forces for Iran, will sooner or later join the war.

Tenth, the primary military objectives of the US-Israel duo are to destroy Iran’s military capacity and eliminate its nuclear capability. Their political goals, however, are primarily to effect regime change and subsequently partition Iran. US imperialism and Israeli Zionism, which desire an Iran fractured among Turks, Persians, Kurds, and Balochs, aim to maximize Israel’s effectiveness in the region, dismantle states that oppose Israel, and reshape the Middle East in line with the needs of imperialism.

Eleventh, the US and Israel are doing everything in their power to incite a Shia-Sunni conflict, a Turkish-Persian conflict, an Arab-Persian conflict, and a Kurdish-Persian conflict. One must be vigilant against this.

Twelfth, as Karl Marx stated, “Every war is also a civil war.” The fact that Israel maintains such a vast network of informants and agents within Iran—organizing to the extent of producing drones within the country and knowing the locations where the cadres managing Iran, as well as the civil and military security bureaucracy, live, work, and hide—demonstrates, once again, the security vulnerabilities and intelligence gaps within Iran.

Thirteenth, the US-Israel aggression against Iran has bolstered the determination of a significant portion of the Iranian opposition to defend their homeland against imperialist attacks, even while maintaining their objections to the current regime. The situation of those Iranian dissidents and regime opponents who marched carrying not only flags of the Shah-era Iran but also US and Israeli flags is a cautionary tale.

Fourteenth, the separatist Kurds, Baloch militias, and the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MEK) organization, which the US has deployed against the regime in Iran, lack the power to topple it. Even if the Iranian regime is battered, worn down, fatigued, or even if its most vital cadres are eliminated, Iran is not Iraq, Syria, or Venezuela. The regime in Iran is not dependent on a single individual, and despite not being as high as it once was, its support among the public remains significant enough not to be underestimated, and certainly not sufficient to be dismantled by foreign intervention.

Fifteenth, Iranian Shi’ism and Iraqi Shi’ism are not one and the same. Iranian Shi’ism draws from the schools of Qom and Mashhad, while Iraqi Shi’ism is nourished by the schools of Karbala and Najaf. Iran’s influence in Iraq cannot be explained solely by the Shia sect; Iran has other tools at its disposal.

In conclusion, it is difficult for the US to risk a ground operation against Iran, and equally difficult for such an operation to succeed. With a population nearing 93 million, a landmass exceeding roughly 1.6 million square kilometers, its strategic depth, mountainous geography, battle-hardened armed forces, and a defense industry developed with contributions from China, Russia, and North Korea, Iran is a formidable adversary for the US. The prolongation of the war and the increasing impact of Iran’s missile and rocket strikes against Israel will only serve to strengthen Iran’s hand.