US proposes 20-year nuclear moratorium to Iran during Islamabad talks

The US offered Iran a 20-year moratorium on all nuclear activities during negotiations held in Islamabad last weekend, according to reports.

The proposal, presented by US Vice President JD Vance, aims to impose long-term constraints on Tehran’s nuclear capabilities, The New York Times reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

However, a US official and another source informed Axios that Iran responded to the offer with a counterproposal for a “single-digit” duration of less than 10 years. Two senior Iranian officials and a US official told the NYT that the specific timeframe brought to the table by Iran was five years.

The report noted that this five-year period mirrors the duration proposed during negotiations in February—a round of talks that resulted in Donald Trump becoming dissatisfied with the outcome and pivoting toward military options.

Regional security and freedom of navigation at the center of talks

The parties have reportedly yet to reach an agreement on a series of other critical issues beyond the nuclear timeline. Chief among these concerns are the restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the cessation of Iranian support for organizations such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

Despite these challenges, the NYT reported that the primary “deadlock” remains Tehran’s reluctance to abandon its nuclear ambitions and its refusal to transfer its existing uranium stockpile out of the country.

According to the report, the fact that both sides are currently debating the duration of restrictions rather than the nuclear program in its entirety suggests that the possibility of an agreement remains on the table.

Iranian reaction to Vance’s statements

The Iranian delegation had reportedly expected to reach a preliminary agreement as of Sunday morning; however, the atmosphere shifted following a press conference held by JD Vance.

According to Axios sources, Vance gave no indication that the positions of the two sides were converging as he announced a breakdown in the negotiations. Attributing the failure to the Iranian side, Vance declared that the US delegation would depart.

Sources indicated that the announcement took the Iranian side by surprise, noting that the delegation felt significant anger regarding the press conference.

Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye are reportedly working to bridge the gap between the parties’ positions in an effort to secure a settlement to halt the conflict before a ceasefire expires on April 21.

The US demand for a moratorium on uranium enrichment activities has emerged as the most critical point of the latest negotiation round. Sources familiar with the discussions told the NYT that the US proposed a term of at least 20 years, coupled with a series of additional restrictions.

Washington also demanded that Iran export all of its highly enriched uranium. The Iranian delegation responded to this demand with a proposal for a “controlled dilution process” instead of shipping the uranium abroad.

Finally, the report assessed that focusing negotiations on the duration of restrictions rather than the total dismantling of the nuclear program carries political risk for Trump.

A potential agreement could resemble the 2015 nuclear deal signed during the Barack Obama administration alongside European nations, Russia, and China. Donald Trump withdrew the US from that accord three years after taking office, characterizing the agreement as a “horrible, one-sided deal that should have never been made.”