US refineries run near full capacity as global fuel supplies tighten

US oil refineries are operating near full capacity as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine tighten global fuel supplies.

According to the Financial Times, the exceptionally high operating rate has created a fragile situation in which any major technical failure or natural disaster could have serious consequences.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that refineries nationwide are operating at 96% of capacity. Facilities in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions have reached 100% capacity utilization.

After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, US energy companies boosted exports of refined petroleum products, particularly diesel and jet fuel, to record levels. The high operating rates have enabled refineries to maintain uninterrupted fuel supplies to both domestic and international markets while supporting the share prices of companies such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum.

The shares of both companies have nearly doubled since the beginning of the year.

Goldman Sachs previously assessed scenarios under which oil prices could rise above $120 per barrel by the end of 2026.

Analysts, however, warned that any disruption, whether from equipment failures or hurricanes, would place significant additional pressure on consumers already facing elevated energy costs worldwide.

“Rising exports from the United States are helping, but this is only a Band-Aid on a serious bullet wound,” said Rabobank energy strategist Joe DeLaura.

“We are trying to offset the shortfall by operating at the limits of our capacity, but that also means any refinery outage would have extremely severe consequences,” DeLaura added.

President Donald Trump said in the spring that his administration would draw on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help contain rising oil prices.

The US Department of Energy subsequently announced that 172 million barrels of crude oil from the reserve would be released to the market. Washington has since released about 77% of that volume.

In July, the Government Accountability Office reported that roughly 25% of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve’s total inventory was effectively inaccessible.

The Big Hill storage site in Texas is out of service while crude oil pumps, pipelines and control systems undergo upgrades.

The Bayou Choctaw and West Hackberry underground crude oil storage facilities in southern Louisiana are also facing significant constraints on refilling their reserves.

Problems disposing of saline formation water and critically low groundwater levels are limiting the storage capacity at both facilities.